Southampton vs Bristol City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Tue, 21 Apr - 6:45 PM
Championship
Southampton SOU
2 – 2
Bristol City BSC
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 44 Regular Season
Ross Stewart - 74'
Cyle Larin - 29'
Goal
|
Goal
Sam Bell - 63'
Ryan Manning - 5' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Southampton and Bristol City played out a 2-2 draw at St. Mary's Stadium. The stronger home side, Southampton, led possession with 54% compared to Bristol City's 46%, yet failed to convert dominance into victory. Halftime saw both teams level at 1-1, maintaining parity into the second half. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half adjustments were evident. Structural deviation registered at a moderate 8.2% for Southampton, indicating some variance from expected patterns. Market alignment held true with the draw outcome. Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the even scoreline reflects balanced execution across phases. Southampton's edge in strength did not translate to points, underscoring Bristol City's resilience in holding firm.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton recorded a moderate 8.2% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was true for the draw outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Bell

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Leach

2nd Assistant

S. Allison

4th Official

A. Fox

1st Assistant

Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Bristol City R. Hodgson
R. Hodgson
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
Derby County Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Norwich City Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
4.93%
Draw
91.84%
Away Bristol City
3.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Southampton
-1.32%
Draw
+1.7%
Bristol City
-0.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
43.83
22.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Bristol City
Power Score
43.83
22.69
League Position
4
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Bristol City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bristol City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bristol City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.52
20.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.33
23.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Southampton +0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Bristol City -0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Bristol City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bristol City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Southampton Bristol City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Southampton Bristol City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Bristol City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Southampton
vs
Bristol City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Southampton Bristol City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Southampton 0.19
Bristol City 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Southampton Bristol City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Southampton 0.07
Bristol City 0.04
Southampton
Bristol City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BSC had peak pressure around 53'.
  • BSC started the game with stronger pressure.
SOU Pressure BSC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BSC reached the top pressure at 53' (80.17).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
10 matches
Bristol City BSC Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
0
Draws
0
7
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
8
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:03:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
Substitution
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
N. Wood-Gordon
England
15 N. Wood-Gordon
R. Manning
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
F. Downes
Substitution
England
4 F. Downes
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
K. Matsuki
Substitution
Japan
27 K. Matsuki
C. Archer
Substitution
England
19 C. Archer
F. Azaz
Substitution
England
10 F. Azaz
C. Larin
Canada
9 C. Larin
Pitch
R. Vítek
Czech Republic
23 R. Vítek
C. Pring
England
3 C. Pring
V. Borges dos Santos Neto
Brazil
21 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
N. Eile
Sweden
38 N. Eile
R. McCrorie
Scotland
2 R. McCrorie
S. Morsy
Egypt
40 S. Morsy
J. Knight
Republic of Ireland
12 J. Knight
S. Twine
England
10 S. Twine
T. Horvat
Substitution
Slovenia
14 T. Horvat
S. Bell
Substitution
England
20 S. Bell
D. Burgzorg
Netherlands
11 D. Burgzorg

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 44 · Regular Season
Stadium :
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity :
32384
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniel Leach
Samuel Allison
Elliot Bell
Andrew Fox

Statistics

Possession
SOU
53%
BSC
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 8
54 Dangerous attacks 27
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

17 Throwins 12
9 Successful Headers 14
17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
3 Goal Kicks 7
6 Dribble Attempts 6
1 Successful Dribbles 2
2 Assists 1
69 Ball Safe 86
6 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 2

Attacking

110 Attacks 67
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

16 Successful Long Passes 20
524 Passes 451
85 Successful Passes Percentage 85
7 Key Passes 6
443 Successful Passes 384
38 Long Passes 52
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

30 Duels Won 45
4 Saves 2
4 Interceptions 12
11 Tackles 14

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 11
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 10
5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Elliot Bell

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.92
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
7.21
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
7.26
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
7.01
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart
Attacker71'
6.85
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood Defender
6.79
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Midfielder
6.8
48
Cameron Bragg
Cameron Bragg
Midfielder87'
6.66
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
7.14
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
Midfielder71'
6.9
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer Midfielder
6.62
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza
Midfielder57'
7.31
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Midfielder
7
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki Midfielder
6.88
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows
Midfielder57'
6.75
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Attacker
6.71
Referee : Elliot Bell

Starting XI ▼

23
Radek Vitek
Radek Vitek Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Defender
6.87
3
Cameron Pring
Cameron Pring Defender
6.58
21
Neto Borges
Neto Borges Defender
6.45
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Defender
6.8
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Midfielder
7.11
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight Midfielder
6.77
14
Tomi Horvat
Tomi Horvat Midfielder
6.84
16
Rob Dickie
Rob Dickie
Defender81'
6.96
20
Sam Bell
Sam Bell Midfielder
6.72
17
Mark Sykes
Mark Sykes
Midfielder72'
6.72
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Midfielder
6.73
11
Delano Burgzorg
Delano Burgzorg Attacker
6.73

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Rob Dickie
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Sam Morsy
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Cameron Bragg → Flynn Downes
7th Substitution
87'
81'
Event
Rob Dickie → Tomi Horvat
6th Substitution
Event
Cyle Larin
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
76'
Event
Cameron Pring
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ross Stewart
Header / 3rd Goal
74'
72'
Event
Mark Sykes → Sam Bell
5th Substitution
Event
Caspar Jander → Finn Azaz
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Ross Stewart → James Bree
4th Substitution
71'
63'
Event
Sam Bell
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Flynn Downes
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Leo Scienza → Cameron Archer
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Tom Fellows → Kuryu Matsuki
1st Substitution
57'
1ST-HALF
Event
Cyle Larin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
29'
Event
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'
5'
Event
Ryan Manning
Header / 1st Own Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 2-2 between Southampton and Bristol City.
90
Update Update
Léo Scienza is flagged for offside for Southampton.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sam Morsy of Bristol City receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Morsy against Bristol City.
90
Update Update
Caspar Jander of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Rob Dickie concedes.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rob Dickie of Bristol City receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Ross Stewart from Southampton heads the ball from a few meters out but misses to the left. The assist was provided by Taylor Harwood-Bellis, also with a header.
90
Update Update
Cyle Larin is called offside for Southampton.
90
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Bragg's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
90
Update Update
Fouled by Tom Fellows of Southampton.
89
Attempt Attempt
Léo Scienza's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Caspar Jander.
89
Update Update
Mark Sykes from Bristol City won a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Cameron Bragg fouled a player from Southampton.
87
Update Update
Cyle Larin is flagged for offside for Southampton.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cameron Bragg replaces Flynn Downes.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Rob Dickie concedes.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shea Charles from Southampton attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Radek Vítek, the Bristol City goalkeeper, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Caspar Jander, who headed the ball.
84
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after Shea Charles concedes.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Rob Dickie replaces Tomi Horvat.
81
Update Update
Tomi Horvat from Bristol City won a free kick in the attacking area.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Flynn Downes against Southampton.
80
Update Update
Scott Twine from Bristol City won a free kick in an attacking position.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cyle Larin from Southampton receives a yellow card for a foul.
80
Update Update
Cyle Larin fouled a Southampton player.
79
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Tomi Horvat from Bristol City takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Daniel Peretz from Southampton. The assist came from Delano Burgzorg.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Fellows of Southampton.
78
Update Update
Neto Borges from Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
77
Update Update
Offside called against Southampton. Ross Stewart is offside.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cameron Pring from Bristol City receives a yellow card for a foul.
76
Update Update
Cyle Larin of Southampton won a free kick on the right wing.
76
Update Update
Cameron Pring from Bristol City committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Shea Charles of Southampton.
75
Update Update
Jason Knight of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ross Stewart scores for Southampton with a header from a few meters into the left corner, assisted by Tom Fellows' cross. The match is now 2-2 against Bristol City.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Mark Sykes replaces Sam Bell.
71
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sam Bell from Bristol City.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Caspar Jander replaces Finn Azaz.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Ross Stewart replaces James Bree.
70
Update Update
Ross McCrorie of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
70
Update Update
Léo Scienza fouled Southampton.
69
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Tomi Horvat from Bristol City takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Daniel Peretz from Southampton. The assist comes from Sam Bell.
67
Update Update
Offside called against Bristol City. Sam Bell is offside.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bristol City takes the lead 2-1 as Sam Bell scores with a header from the right side of the six-yard box into the left corner, assisted by Tomi Horvat's cross following a corner.
63
Corner Corner
Bristol City is awarded a corner after Flynn Downes concedes.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Flynn Downes of Southampton receives a yellow card for a foul.
62
Update Update
Fouled by Flynn Downes of Southampton.
62
Update Update
Fouled by Flynn Downes of Southampton.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Flynn Downes for Southampton.
61
Update Update
Sam Morsy of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Ross McCrorie against Bristol City.
58
Update Update
Foul by Ross McCrorie against Bristol City.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Léo Scienza replaces Cameron Archer.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Tom Fellows replaces Kuryu Matsuki.
56
Update Update
Cyle Larin is flagged for offside for Southampton.
56
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg fouled a Bristol City player.
54
Corner Corner
Bristol City wins a corner after Nathan Wood concedes.
54
Attempt Attempt
Tomi Horvat's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Scott Twine.
52
Update Update
James Bree of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Scott Twine of Bristol City.
51
Update Update
Jason Knight of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Foul by Flynn Downes on Southampton.
50
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Tomi Horvat of Bristol City takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Daniel Peretz of Southampton.
50
Update Update
Handball by Ross McCrorie for Bristol City.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Radek Vítek concedes.
46
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Cameron Archer from Southampton has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but Radek Vítek from Bristol City saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by Cyle Larin.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Southampton and Bristol City tied at 1-1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins after the match finishes 1-1.
39
Attempt Attempt
Cyle Larin's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Kuryu Matsuki.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sam Morsy from Bristol City shoots with his right foot from outside the box but it goes high and wide to the left.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Delano Burgzorg from Bristol City shoots with his right foot from outside the box but it goes high. The assist was by Tomi Horvat.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a concession by Ross McCrorie.
33
Update Update
Cyle Larin fouled a Southampton player.
33
Update Update
Jason Knight of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Noah Eile from Bristol City commits a foul.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Cyle Larin scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from close range into the left corner, assisted by Ryan Manning's cross.
29
Update Update
Cameron Archer from Southampton won a free kick on the left wing.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Shea Charles of Southampton receives a yellow card for a foul.
27
Update Update
Shea Charles fouled a player from Southampton.
27
Update Update
Tomi Horvat of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a concession by Noah Eile.
26
Attempt Attempt
Finn Azaz's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Shea Charles.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a concession by Sam Morsy.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Shea Charles from Southampton took a right-footed shot from outside the box but missed.
18
Update Update
Cyle Larin fouled a Southampton player.
18
Update Update
Neto Borges from Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a concession by Cameron Pring.
12
Update Update
Cameron Archer from Southampton won a free kick on the left wing.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Ross McCrorie against Bristol City.
11
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki fouled a Southampton player.
11
Update Update
Cameron Pring of Bristol City won a free kick in defense.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ryan Manning scores an own goal for Southampton. The score is now Southampton 0, Bristol City 1.
4
Update Update
Ryan Manning of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Bell of Bristol City.
2
Attempt Attempt
Delano Burgzorg of Bristol City attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Southampton's goalkeeper Daniel Peretz, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Sam Bell.
1
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki from Southampton won a free kick on the right wing.
1
Update Update
Cameron Pring from Bristol City committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw encapsulates a contest where Southampton's status as the stronger team and higher possession did not yield a win, highlighting Bristol City's effective counterbalance. With halftime at 1-1 and no disciplinary interruptions, the result aligns with market expectations and shows efficiency consistency. Moderate structural deviation for Southampton points to minor execution variances, but overall balance prevailed without xG insights to refine chance evaluation. This outcome reinforces the home side's need for sharper finishing against resilient opponents, while Bristol City demonstrates capability to earn points away.

Southampton vs Bristol City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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