Southampton vs Arsenal Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
St. Mary's Stadium Sat, 4 Apr - 7:00 PM
FA Cup
Southampton SOU
2 Winner 1
Arsenal ARS
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals
Shea Emmanuel Charles - 85'
Ross Stewart - 35'
Goal
|
Goal
Viktor Gyökeres - 68'

CONTEXT

The match between Southampton and Arsenal has officially finished, with Southampton securing a surprising 2-1 victory. The visitors came into the game heavily backed by the pre-match market, boasting a 66.9% implied probability of winning compared to Southampton's 14.1% chance. This result represents a significant deviation in favor of Southampton, who successfully defied expectations after taking a 1-0 lead into the half-time break. Arsenal controlled the tempo of the game, dominating the ball with 64% possession while Southampton managed just 36%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final outcome aligned with the overall quality of scoring chances created. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match was noted to be in line with standard expectations. The game also concluded without any red cards to either side, meaning disciplinary events did not alter the competitive balance. Ultimately, the final result was entirely unaligned with the pre-match market. Arsenal, established as the significantly stronger team beforehand, failed to turn their vast possession into a win. This resulted in a massive 85.9% probability deviation as Southampton claimed an unlikely triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Barrott

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Bramall

4th Official

W. Smith

2nd Assistant

J. Mainwaring

1st Assistant

Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Leicester City Rank: 68 W
Doncaster Rovers Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mansfield Town Rank: 72 W
Wigan Athletic Rank: 68 W
Portsmouth Rank: 65 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 11 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
14.09%
Draw
19.02%
Away Arsenal
66.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.11
99.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Arsenal
Power Score
76.11
99.16
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
89
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Arsenal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.08
41.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.56
27.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Southampton -1.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Arsenal +1.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Arsenal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Southampton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Southampton Arsenal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Southampton Arsenal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Southampton
Arsenal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Southampton
vs
Arsenal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Southampton Arsenal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Southampton 0.23
Arsenal 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Southampton Arsenal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Southampton 0.01
Arsenal 0.06
Southampton
Arsenal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
38 matches
Arsenal ARS Away
Match Record
9
Wins
18
11
Draws
11
18
Losses
9
Goals
44
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
44
-26
Goal Difference
+26

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:07:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
N. Wood-Gordon
England
15 N. Wood-Gordon
R. Manning
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
C. Bragg
Substitution
England
48 C. Bragg
C. Jander
Germany
20 C. Jander
T. Fellows
England
18 T. Fellows
F. Azaz
England
10 F. Azaz
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
Substitution
Brazil
13 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
R. Stewart
Substitution
Scotland
11 R. Stewart
Pitch
K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
Spain
13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
M. Lewis-Skelly
Substitution
England
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Substitution
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
C. Mosquera
Spain
3 C. Mosquera
B. White
England
4 B. White
C. Nørgaard
Denmark
16 C. Nørgaard
M. Ødegaard
Substitution
Norway
8 M. Ødegaard
G. Martinelli Silva
Brazil
11 G. Martinelli Silva
K. Havertz
Substitution
Germany
29 K. Havertz
M. Dowman
England
56 M. Dowman
G. de Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
9 G. de Jesus

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Quarter Finals
Stadium :
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity :
32384
Attendance :
31067
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thomas Bramall
Wade Smith
James Mainwaring
Samuel Barrott

Statistics

Possession
SOU
39%
ARS
61%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 8
35 Dangerous attacks 72
36 Possession 64
4 Corners 9
11 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 4
7 Dribble Attempts 10
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
83 Ball Safe 69
10 Throwins 7
2 Successful Dribbles 8
2 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Attempts 15
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

67 Attacks 104
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

304 Passes 524
79 Successful Passes Percentage 89
51 Long Passes 22
240 Successful Passes 465
5 Key Passes 18
19 Successful Long Passes 12
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

13 Tackles 7
34 Duels Won 34
7 Interceptions 6
6 Saves 2

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 21
1 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

9 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
17
Joshua Quarshie
Joshua Quarshie
Defender90+7'
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood Defender
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza Midfielder
23
Samuel Edozie
Samuel Edozie
Midfielder71'
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Midfielder
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander Midfielder
48
Cameron Bragg
Cameron Bragg Midfielder
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Midfielder76'
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart Attacker
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin
Attacker70'
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

13
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Kepa Arrizabalaga Goalkeeper
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera Defender
4
Ben White
Ben White Defender
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
2
William Saliba
William Saliba
Defender72'
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Myles Lewis-Skelly Defender
33
Riccardo Calafiori
Riccardo Calafiori
Defender60'
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Midfielder
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke
Attacker61'
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli Midfielder
16
Christian Nørgaard
Christian Nørgaard Midfielder
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Midfielder
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi
Midfielder79'
56
Max Dowman
Max Dowman Midfielder
9
Gabriel Jesus
Gabriel Jesus Attacker
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joshua Quarshie → Ryan Manning
9th Substitution
90+7'
90+4'
Event
Gabriel Martinelli
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Caspar Jander
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
85'
79'
Event
Martín Zubimendi → Kai Havertz
8th Substitution
Event
Shea Emmanuel Charles → Cameron Bragg
7th Substitution
76'
72'
Event
William Saliba → Gabriel Magalhães
6th Substitution
Event
Samuel Edozie → Leo Scienza
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Cyle Larin → Ross Stewart
4th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Viktor Gyökeres
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
61'
Event
Noni Madueke → Martin Ødegaard
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Riccardo Calafiori → Myles Lewis-Skelly
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Viktor Gyökeres → Gabriel Jesus
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ross Stewart
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
35'
Event
Ryan Manning
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Joshua Quarshie comes on for Ryan Manning.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Noni Madueke from Arsenal takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it goes too high.
90
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Southampton defeating Arsenal 2-1.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Tom Fellows of Southampton has his attempt saved. His right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right is stopped in the top right corner by Kepa Arrizabalaga of Arsenal, with the assist coming from Cyle Larin.
90
Corner Corner
Southampton win a corner after Kepa Arrizabalaga concedes.
90
Update Update
Max Dowman wins a free kick for Arsenal in the attacking half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Riccardo Calafiori from Arsenal had a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Gabriel Martinelli's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Caspar Jander of Southampton receives a yellow card for a foul.
89
Update Update
Max Dowman wins a free kick for Arsenal in the attacking half.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Caspar Jander of Southampton.
89
Update Update
Christian Nørgaard of Arsenal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Caspar Jander of Southampton.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Shea Charles scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from the center of the box. The score is now Southampton 2, Arsenal 1.
84
Corner Corner
Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal misses a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it close but to the left. He was assisted by Noni Madueke after a corner.
83
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Daniel Peretz concedes.
83
Corner Corner
Max Dowman's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top left corner by Daniel Peretz. The attempt was assisted by Christian Nørgaard.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Martín Zubimendi comes on for Kai Havertz.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben White of Arsenal.
78
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton wins a free kick in the defensive half.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Shea Charles comes on for Cameron Bragg.
74
Corner Corner
Southampton wins a corner after Ben White concedes.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: William Saliba comes on for Gabriel Magalhães due to an injury.
71
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Samuel Edozie comes on for Léo Scienza.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Caspar Jander of Southampton.
70
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cyle Larin comes on for Ross Stewart.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Viktor Gyökeres scores for Arsenal with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Kai Havertz.
67
Attempt Attempt
Max Dowman's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben White of Arsenal.
66
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton wins a free kick in the defensive half.
63
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
61
Attempt Attempt
Léo Scienza from Southampton hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Noni Madueke comes on for Martin Ødegaard.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori comes on for Myles Lewis-Skelly.
60
Corner Corner
Southampton wins a corner after Kepa Arrizabalaga concedes.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Viktor Gyökeres comes on for Gabriel Jesus.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a foul by Cristhian Mosquera.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after a concession by Gabriel Magalhães.
54
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli's right-footed shot from a tough angle on the left is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Max Dowman's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Gabriel Martinelli's cross.
53
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Ryan Manning concedes.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Fellows of Southampton.
50
Update Update
Myles Lewis-Skelly from Arsenal wins a free kick on the left wing.
50
Update Update
Gabriel Jesus of Arsenal misses a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the right. The attempt was assisted by Martin Ødegaard, who provided a cross after a set piece.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben White of Arsenal.
48
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Cameron Bragg from Southampton wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Attempt Attempt
Christian Nørgaard's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Daniel Peretz. The attempt was assisted by Max Dowman.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Southampton leading Arsenal 1-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Southampton 1, Arsenal 0.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Martin Ødegaard of Arsenal.
40
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Finn Azaz from Southampton has a right-footed shot from outside the box saved in the top center of the goal by Kepa Arrizabalaga from Arsenal.
40
Update Update
Caspar Jander from Southampton wins a free kick on the left wing.
38
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton wins a free kick on the left wing.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben White of Arsenal.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben White of Arsenal.
37
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton wins a free kick in the defensive half.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton leads Arsenal 1-0. Ross Stewart scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
34
Update Update
Cameron Bragg from Southampton wins a free kick on the right wing.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Kai Havertz of Arsenal.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Christian Nørgaard against Arsenal.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Christian Nørgaard for Arsenal.
31
Attempt Attempt
Kai Havertz's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Ben White.
31
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Nathan Wood concedes.
29
Corner Corner
Max Dowman's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Daniel Peretz. The attempt was assisted by Martin Ødegaard.
29
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Daniel Peretz concedes.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Manning of Southampton.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Manning of Southampton receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
27
Update Update
Max Dowman wins a free kick for Arsenal in the attacking half.
26
Attempt Attempt
Martin Ødegaard of Arsenal misses a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the left. Gabriel Martinelli provided the assist.
25
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Martin Ødegaard from Arsenal has a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
24
Attempt Attempt
Max Dowman's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Ben White provided the assist.
23
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Léo Scienza concedes.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Myles Lewis-Skelly of Arsenal.
20
Update Update
Tom Fellows from Southampton wins a free kick in the defensive half.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Léo Scienza of Southampton.
18
Update Update
Cristhian Mosquera from Arsenal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
18
Update Update
Foul by Christian Nørgaard against Arsenal.
18
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton wins a free kick in the defensive half.
17
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Magalhães' left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Max Dowman's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Myles Lewis-Skelly provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Kai Havertz wins a free kick for Arsenal on the right wing.
14
Update Update
Foul by Caspar Jander of Southampton.
11
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Jesus has a header from a tough angle on the right, but it's saved.
11
Corner Corner
Gabriel Jesus from Arsenal misses a header from the center of the box to the left. He was assisted by Christian Nørgaard, who provided a headed pass after a corner.
11
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Ryan Manning concedes.
10
Corner Corner
Arsenal earn a corner after Taylor Harwood-Bellis concedes.
10
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
9
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after James Bree concedes.
9
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Martinelli's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Tom Fellows' left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Finn Azaz provided the assist.
6
Attempt Attempt
Max Dowman's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
3
Update Update
Martin Ødegaard wins a free kick for Arsenal in the defensive half.
3
Update Update
Martin Ødegaard wins a free kick for Arsenal in the defensive half.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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