Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Nordsjælland Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Sydbank Park Sun, 17 May - 4:00 PM
Superliga
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON
1 Winner 4
Nordsjælland FCN
Full Time Sun, 17 May 4:00 PM
Round 10 Championship Round
M. Jensen - 49' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Runar Norheim - 39', 13'
Levy Nene - 6'

CONTEXT

Sønderjyske Fodbold hosted Nordsjælland in a match that ended with a 1-4 scoreline in favor of the visitors. The first half proved decisive as Nordsjælland established a commanding 0-3 lead by halftime. Despite Sønderjyske registering a marginally higher expected goals total of 2.08 against Nordsjælland's 1.96, the away side converted opportunities more effectively on the pitch. Nordsjælland controlled possession with 64 percent compared to the home team's 36 percent. No red cards were shown to either side throughout the contest. Nordsjælland as the stronger team delivered a performance consistent with their overall quality. The result highlighted how early dominance can shape the final outcome regardless of underlying metrics.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nordsjælland showed a minimal deviation of 4.2 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performance levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with the close xG values of 2.08 to 1.96.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Nordsjælland exceeded xG expectations by scoring four goals from 1.96 xG.
  • Event impact: The 0-3 halftime score created a decisive event impact on the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so there was no red card distortion in the game.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Krogh

Denmark 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Risum

1st Assistant

Denmark

J. García Nilton

2nd Assistant

Denmark

S. Funder

4th Official

Denmark

League averages

Superliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.02
Yellow cards / match 3.4
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.27
Sønderjyske Fodbold T. Nørgaard
T. Nørgaard
VS
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viborg FF Rank: 65 W
AGF Rank: 71 L
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 78 L
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 L
Viborg FF Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 D
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 D
Viborg FF Rank: 63 L
AGF Rank: 72 D
Viborg FF Rank: 63 W
AGF Rank: 72 D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 9 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sønderjyske Fodbold
0.95%
Draw
3.3%
Away Nordsjælland
95.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.77
67.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Nordsjælland
Power Score
60.77
67.85
League Position
6
6
Global Rank
451
253

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold — Opponent-weighted form score
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sønderjyske Fodbold Nordsjælland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sønderjyske Fodbold ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.92
26.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.25
37.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sønderjyske Fodbold +1.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Nordsjælland -1.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Nordsjælland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sønderjyske Fodbold
vs
Nordsjælland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sønderjyske Fodbold Nordsjælland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sønderjyske Fodbold Nordsjælland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Nordsjælland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sønderjyske Fodbold
vs
Nordsjælland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sønderjyske Fodbold Nordsjælland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.36
Nordsjælland 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sønderjyske Fodbold Nordsjælland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.11
Nordsjælland 0.03
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Nordsjælland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SON had peak pressure around 27'.
  • FCN started the game with stronger pressure.
SON Pressure FCN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SON reached the top pressure at 27' (94.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sønderjyske Fodbold SON Home
48 matches
Nordsjælland FCN Away
Match Record
14
Wins
25
9
Draws
9
25
Losses
14
Goals
58
Goals Scored
90
90
Goals Conceded
58
-32
Goal Difference
+32
Expected Goals
1.11
xG
1.64
1.64
xGA
1.11

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:04:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
N. Flø
Denmark
1 N. Flø
S. Sylvest Wæver
Denmark
3 S. Sylvest Wæver
D. Grétarsson
Iceland
4 D. Grétarsson
M. Soulas
Substitution
France
12 M. Soulas
C. Duru
Substitution
Nigeria
23 C. Duru
M. Jensen
Denmark
5 M. Jensen
S. Haidara
Substitution
31 S. Haidara
S. Emini
Macedonia
7 S. Emini
R. Vinderslev
Substitution
Denmark
6 (C) R. Vinderslev
M. Hoppe
Substitution
United States
9 M. Hoppe
O. Hyseni
Denmark
24 O. Hyseni
Pitch
A. Hansen
Denmark
13 A. Hansen
C. Yirenkyi
36 C. Yirenkyi
T. Salquist
Denmark
3 T. Salquist
P. Ankersen
Denmark
2 P. Ankersen
R. Norheim
Substitution
Norway
23 R. Norheim
M. Brink Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
6 (C) M. Brink Christensen
J. Meltofte Janssen
18 J. Meltofte Janssen
J. Lähteenmäki
Substitution
Finland
25 J. Lähteenmäki
P. Amoako Junior
Substitution
10 P. Amoako Junior
I. Adel
Egypt
14 I. Adel
L. Nene
Substitution
17 L. Nene

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 10 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Sydbank Park
Capacity :
10000
Attendance :
8198
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Morten Krogh
Rene Risum
Jonathan García Nilton
Svend Funder

Statistics

Possession
SON
39%
FCN
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 6
3 Shots 5
33 Dangerous attacks 36
36 Possession 64
3 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Successful Dribbles 3
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
10 Dribble Attempts 14
20 Throwins 16
6 Goal Kicks 6
0 Assists 4
5 Substitutions 4
1 Penalties 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1
56 Ball Safe 74
4 Goal Attempts 10
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

70 Attacks 105
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

9 Key Passes 14
26 Successful Long Passes 27
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
77 Successful Passes Percentage 89
347 Passes 634
51 Long Passes 58
266 Successful Passes 562

Defensive

40 Duels Won 35
18 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 12
3 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
11 Total Crosses 5

Discipline

11 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

1
N. Flø
N. Flø Goalkeeper
6.16
3
S. Wæver
S. Wæver Defender
6.48
4
Daníel Leó Grétarsson
Daníel Leó Grétarsson Defender
6.3
12
M. Soulas
M. Soulas Defender
6.14
11
A. Lyng
A. Lyng
Attacker46'
6.9
23
E. Duru
E. Duru Defender
5.73
20
T. Klysner
T. Klysner
Attacker63'
6.49
5
M. Jensen
M. Jensen Midfielder
7.34
6
R. Vinderslev
R. Vinderslev (C) Midfielder
6.3
22
A. Oggesen
A. Oggesen
Midfielder55'
6.45
7
S. Emini
S. Emini Midfielder
6.79
31
M. Haidara
M. Haidara Midfielder
6.45
15
Lirim Qamili
Lirim Qamili
Attacker63'
6.43
9
M. Hoppe
M. Hoppe Attacker
6.53
19
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Defender78'
6.21
24
O. Hyseni
O. Hyseni Attacker
6.41
Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
6.88
2
Peter Ankersen
Peter Ankersen Defender
6.64
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist Defender
7
36
Caleb Yirenkyi
Caleb Yirenkyi Defender
6.75
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink (C) Midfielder
7.91
45
Noah Markmann
Noah Markmann
Defender79'
6.68
18
Justin Janssen
Justin Janssen Midfielder
8.45
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Midfielder
2
8.34
39
Daniel Ingi Johannesson
Daniel Ingi Johannesson
Attacker89'
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
6.82
47
Malte Heyde
Malte Heyde
Midfielder79'
6.65
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior Attacker
6.5
29
Villum Berthelsen
Villum Berthelsen
Midfielder79'
6.55
14
Ibrahim Adel
Ibrahim Adel Attacker
7.6
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene Attacker
7.22
40
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Attacker66'
6.48

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Daniel Ingi Johannesson → Runar Norheim
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Ibrahim Adel
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
A. Oggesen
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
Event
1st Var
81'
79'
Event
Villum Berthelsen → Prince Amoako Junior
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Malte Heyde → Juho Lähteenmäki
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Noah Markmann → Mark Brink
9th Substitution
Event
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen → M. Hoppe
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Daníel Leó Grétarsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
66'
Event
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen → Levy Nene
5th Substitution
Event
T. Klysner → E. Duru
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Lirim Qamili → M. Haidara
4th Substitution
63'
Event
A. Oggesen → R. Vinderslev
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
E. Duru
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
Event
M. Jensen
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
49'
Event
A. Lyng → M. Soulas
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Runar Norheim
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
13'
Event
Runar Norheim
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
6'
Event
Levy Nene
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

89
Update Update
Daniel Ingi Johannesson is on, and Runar Norheim is off.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ibrahim Adel scores with an assist from Runar Norheim. The score is now 1-4.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel scores with a left-footed shot.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ibrahim Adel scores, making it 4-2.
81
Update Update
The VAR decision shows a goal has been disallowed for offside.
79
Update Update
Malte Heyde replaces Juho Lahteenmaki.
79
Update Update
Noah Markmann comes on, and Mark Brink goes off.
79
Update Update
Villum Berthelsen is replaced by Prince Amoako Junior.
78
Update Update
Kristensen comes on for Hoppe.
76
Attempt Attempt
Magnus Jensen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Lyng takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Simon Waever takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Lyng takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Hjalte Rasmussen comes on for Levy Nene.
65
Attempt Attempt
Olti Hyseni takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Update Update
Tobias Klysner is on, and Magnus Jensen is off.
63
Update Update
Lirim Qamili comes on for Haidara Mohamed Cherif.
59
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim attempts a header but misses the shot.
58
Attempt Attempt
Levy Nene's left-footed shot is saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel's right-footed shot is blocked.
55
Substitution Substitution
Andreas Oggesen is substituted for Rasmus Vinderslev.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ebube Gideon Duru receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Magnus Jensen takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Magnus Jensen scores, making it 3 penalties for his team. The match remains 1-1.
47
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Salquist attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Hoppe takes a header shot but misses.
46
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Lyng is substituted for Maxime Henry, with Armand Soulas coming on.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Leo Gretarsson attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Runar Norheim scores, making it 0-3.
39
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim scores with a right-footed shot.
37
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Hoppe's header is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Prince Amoako Junior takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Adel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Update Update
Haidara Mohamed Cherif's header is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Leo Gretarsson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Haidara Mohamed Cherif takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Leo Gretarsson attempts a header but misses the shot.
18
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Runar Norheim scores, making it 0-2.
13
Attempt Attempt
Runar Norheim scores with a right-footed shot.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Levy Nene scores, making it 1-0.
6
Attempt Attempt
Levy Nene scores with a left-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sønderjyske Fodbold 1-4 Nordsjælland. Structural assessment: Nordsjælland exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Nordsjælland preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.