Sochi vs Orenburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht Sun, 3 May - 11:30 AM
Premier League
Sochi Sochi
3 Winner 1
Orenburg Orenburg
Full Time Sun, 3 May 11:30 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
Kirill Kravtsov - 67', 33', 7'
Goal
|
Goal
Alexandre Jesus - 69'

CONTEXT

Sochi secured a decisive 3-1 home win against Orenburg, overturning pre-match views that labeled the visitors as the stronger team. The hosts established dominance early, leading 2-0 at halftime with purposeful attacks amid balanced possession of 51% to 49%. Orenburg responded with a second-half goal but couldn't mount a full comeback as Sochi added a third to seal the points. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 100% in Sochi's favor, showcasing their ability to exceed expectations. No red cards altered the flow, and team efficiencies aligned with assessments. Absent xG data limits insights into chance creation, yet Sochi's clinical edge shone through in a match defined by steady control and opportunistic scoring.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sochi recorded a significant 100% structural deviation by winning 3-1 as the underperceived team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Tsyganok

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Demeshko

1st Assistant

A. Bogdanov

2nd Assistant

I. Kaplenkov

4th Official

Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
VS
Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
0.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 69 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Rostov Rank: 60 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 71 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 64 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: 60 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 53 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sochi
0%
Draw
0%
Away Orenburg
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.62
53.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sochi
Orenburg
Power Score
46.62
53.13
League Position
16
13
Global Rank
714
696

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sochi Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.78
33.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.27
30.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sochi -0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Orenburg +0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Orenburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sochi Orenburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sochi Orenburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Orenburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sochi
vs
Orenburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sochi Orenburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sochi 0.41
Orenburg 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sochi Orenburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sochi 0.02
Orenburg 0.09
Sochi
Orenburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Orenburg had peak pressure around 94'.
  • Sochi started the game with stronger pressure.
Sochi Pressure Orenburg Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Orenburg reached the top pressure at 94' (81.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sochi Sochi Home
7 matches
Orenburg Orenburg Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
9
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:01:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
S. Volkov
Russia
82 S. Volkov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
K. Zaika
Russia
27 K. Zaika
M. Mukhin
Substitution
Russia
16 M. Mukhin
K. Kravtsov
Substitution
Russia
14 K. Kravtsov
R. Magal
Russia
28 R. Magal
R. Ezhov
Substitution
Russia
29 R. Ezhov
V. Ilyin
Substitution
Russia
98 V. Ilyin
M. Ignatov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Ignatov
Pitch
B. Ovsyannikov
Russia
1 B. Ovsyannikov
D. Khotulev
Russia
4 D. Khotulev
J. Palacios Santos
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
I. Ivashchenko
Substitution
Russia
65 I. Ivashchenko
A. Cantero Fernandez
Paraguay
32 A. Cantero Fernandez
E. Bolotov
Substitution
Russia
57 E. Bolotov
E. Santos Queiroz
Brazil
37 E. Santos Queiroz
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 F. Moufi
F. Gürlük
Substitution
Türkiye
7 F. Gürlük
G. Guzina
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
30 G. Guzina
J. Thompson
Substitution
Chile
16 J. Thompson

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht
Capacity :
47659
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sergey Tsyganok
Igor Demeshko
Aleksandr Bogdanov
Igor Kaplenkov

Statistics

Possession
Sochi
49%
Orenburg
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 5
34 Dangerous attacks 46
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 11
14 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Goal Attempts 9
73 Ball Safe 67
2 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 5
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
15 Throwins 30
12 Successful Headers 27
9 Goal Kicks 7
4 Successful Dribbles 8
11 Dribble Attempts 12
2 Assists 1

Attacking

63 Attacks 80
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

69 Long Passes 53
389 Passes 378
29 Successful Long Passes 30
79 Successful Passes Percentage 77
309 Successful Passes 290
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

2 Saves 2
36 Duels Won 65
12 Interceptions 2
9 Tackles 15

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 26
9 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

17 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Tsyganok

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
6.83
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
6.71
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
6.63
82
Sergey Volkov
Sergey Volkov Defender
6.42
14
Kirill Kravtsov
Kirill Kravtsov Midfielder
3
6.54
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko
Midfielder90+2'
6.52
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
6.62
18
Artem Korneev
Artem Korneev
Midfielder90+2'
6.46
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika Midfielder
6.5
28
Ruslan Magal
Ruslan Magal Midfielder
6.47
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov Attacker
6.73
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Midfielder78'
6.73
29
Roman Ezhov
Roman Ezhov Attacker
6.52
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy
Midfielder32'
6.6
98
Vladimir Iljin
Vladimir Iljin Attacker
6.74
11
Pavel Meleshin
Pavel Meleshin
Attacker90+2'
6.36
Referee : Sergey Tsyganok

Starting XI ▼

1
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
6.82
4
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev Defender
6.63
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
6.81
65
Ivan Ivashchenko
Ivan Ivashchenko Defender
6.91
27
Renat Golybin
Renat Golybin
Midfielder46'
6.65
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi Midfielder
6.87
32
Alexis Cantero
Alexis Cantero Midfielder
6.63
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz Midfielder
6.81
57
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov Midfielder
6.59
33
Philipp Hilmer
Philipp Hilmer
Midfielder72'
6.66
7
E. Gürlük
E. Gürlük Attacker
6.98
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla
Attacker46'
6.78
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Attacker
6.98
29
Anas El Mahraoui
Anas El Mahraoui
Attacker82'
6.63
30
G. Guzina
G. Guzina Attacker
6.77
19
Alexandre Jesus
Alexandre Jesus
Attacker64'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aleksandr Degtev
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Artem Korneev → Maksim Mukhin
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
A. Kovalenko → Kirill Kravtsov
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Pavel Meleshin → Vladimir Iljin
10th Substitution
90+2'
82'
Event
Anas El Mahraoui → J. Thompson
7th Substitution
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev → Mikhail Ignatov
6th Substitution
78'
72'
Event
Philipp Hilmer → E. Bolotov
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Alexandre Jesus
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Kirill Kravtsov
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
67'
64'
Event
Alexandre Jesus → G. Guzina
4th Substitution
Event
Kirill Zaika
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
46'
Event
Damián Puebla → E. Gürlük
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Renat Golybin → Ivan Ivashchenko
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Sergey Volkov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
Kirill Kravtsov
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Roman Ezhov
1st Substitution
32'
Event
Kirill Kravtsov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Renat Golybin takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Pavel Meleshin replaces Vladimir Iljin.
90
Update Update
Artem Korneev replaces Maksim Mukhin.
90
Update Update
Aleksandr Kovalenko replaces Kirill Kravtsov.
90
Attempt Attempt
Renat Golybin takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Anas El Mahraoui takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Renat Golybin's header is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Du Queiroz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Volkov's right-footed shot is blocked.
82
Update Update
Anas El Mahraoui comes on for Jordhy Thompson.
79
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Jesus takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
78
Update Update
Dmitri Vasiljev is on, and Mikhail Ignatov is off.
74
Attempt Attempt
Fahd Moufi attempts a header but misses the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Fahd Moufi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
72
Update Update
Irakli Kvekveskiri replaces Evgeni Bolotov.
69
Update Update
Goal! Alexandre Jesus scores, bringing the score to 3-1.
69
Update Update
Alexandre Jesus scores with a header.
67
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Kravtsov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
64
Substitution Substitution
Alexandre Jesus is substituted for Gedeon Guzina.
63
Attempt Attempt
Fahd Moufi's left-footed shot is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Mikhail Ignatov's right-footed shot is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Anton Zinkovskiy takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Marcelo Alves Santos's header is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jordhy Thompson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Mikhail Ignatov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Renat Golybin comes on for Ivan Ivashchenko.
46
Attempt Attempt
Bogdan Ovsyannikov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Damian Puebla is on, and Emircan Gurluk is off.
42
Attempt Attempt
Mikhail Ignatov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Du Queiroz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Kravtsov takes a left-footed shot and scores.
32
Substitution Substitution
Anton Zinkovskiy is substituted for Roman Ezhov.
30
Attempt Attempt
Emircan Gurluk takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Zaika takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Zaika takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Marcelo Alves Santos attempts a header but misses the shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Mukhin takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
7
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Kravtsov scores with a right-footed shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Evgeni Bolotov takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Sochi's 3-1 victory over Orenburg highlights their resilience and home prowess, flipping the script on the visitors' stronger billing. Building a 2-0 halftime lead through sharp execution, they maintained composure despite Orenburg's response, converting possession parity into tangible results. This significant deviation underscores Sochi's tactical discipline and finishing prowess. With efficiencies on track, market alignment intact, and no disruptive events, the win feels earned through sustained pressure. Momentum now favors Sochi as they eye upcoming fixtures with renewed confidence.

Sochi vs Orenburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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