Sochi vs Krylya Sovetov Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht Tue, 21 Apr - 2:30 PM

Premier League

Sochi Sochi

Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov

Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 2:30 PM

Round 26 Regular Season

Marcelo Alves - 90+9', 48'

I. Oleynikov - 16'

S. Babkin 82'

T. Galdames 90+7'

CONTEXT

Sochi claimed a hard-fought 2-1 home victory against Krylya Sovetov, staging a comeback after trailing 0-1 at halftime. The hosts controlled possession at 58% to the visitors' 42%, gradually asserting dominance. The turning point came in the second half when Krylya Sovetov received two red cards, leaving them short-handed and vulnerable. Sochi, identified as the stronger team, capitalized on the numerical advantage to score twice and secure the win. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 100% in Sochi's favor, while efficiency remained in line with expectations. Market expectations aligned with the result, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card distortion heavily influenced the second-half proceedings, enabling Sochi's turnaround.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Sochi's 2-1 win exhibited a significant 100% structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations not assessable without data.
Event impact: Red cards to Krylya Sovetov altered second-half dynamics significantly.
Red card distortion: Two red cards to away team distorted the match, aiding Sochi's victory.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

V. Moskalev

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Ivanov

2nd Assistant

M. Cheremnykh

4th Official

D. Mosyakin

1st Assistant

I. Osinkin

S. Bulatov

0.77

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.77

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Sochi

Draw

Krylya Sovetov

Team Power Ranking

17.11

16.8

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Sochi

Krylya Sovetov

Power Score

17.11

16.8

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score

Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sochi Krylya Sovetov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sochi ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

42.59

30.95

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

30.95

42.59

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Sochi +1.34 Efficiency Index

Krylya Sovetov -1.34 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Sochi

Krylya Sovetov

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sochi ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Sochi Krylya Sovetov

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Sochi Krylya Sovetov

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Sochi

Krylya Sovetov

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Sochi

Krylya Sovetov

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Sochi Krylya Sovetov

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Sochi Krylya Sovetov

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Sochi

Krylya Sovetov

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Sochi had peak pressure around 103'.
Sochi started the game with stronger pressure.

Sochi Pressure Krylya Sovetov Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Sochi reached the top pressure at 103' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sochi Sochi Home

8 matches

Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-12

Goal Difference

+12

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

35 A. Degtev

3 A. Soldatenkov

33 M. Alves Santos

4 V. Litvinov

28 R. Magal

16 M. Mukhin

14 K. Kravtsov

17 A. Makarchuk

29 R. Ezhov

98 V. Ilyin

8 M. Ignatov

30 S. Pesyakov

2 K. Pechenin

24 R. Evgenyev

5 A. Oroz

22 F. Peixoto Costanza

6 S. Babkin

8 M. Vityugov

19 I. Oleynikov

77 I. Akhmetov

15 N. Rasskazov

11 A. Rahmanović

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 21, 2026, 02:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 26 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Capacity :

47659

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Vladimir Moskalev

Mikhail Ivanov

Mikhail Cheremnykh

Dmitri Mosyakin

Statistics

Possession

Sochi

56%

Krylya Sovetov

44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 0

8 Shots 2

74 Dangerous attacks 40

58 Possession 42

7 Corners 5

15 Free kicks 14

0 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 75

5 Substitutions 4

3 Injuries 1

12 Goal Attempts 7

64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53

11 Dribble Attempts 15

6 Successful Headers 18

7 Successful Dribbles 8

5 Goal Kicks 10

22 Throwins 12

1 Assists 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 65

Possession

39 Long Passes 45

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

16 Successful Long Passes 21

400 Successful Passes 299

484 Passes 369

83 Successful Passes Percentage 81

Defensive

4 Saves 4

44 Duels Won 52

17 Tackles 13

11 Interceptions 15

Build-up

42 Total Crosses 14

11 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2

13 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Vladimir Moskalev

Manager ▼

I. Osinkin Coach

Starting XI ▼

Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper

6.81

A. Soldatenkov Defender

6.7

Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender

6.64

Marcelo Alves Defender

6.53

Kirill Kravtsov Midfielder

6.51

Dmitriy Vasiljev

Midfielder64'

6.71

Maksim Mukhin Midfielder

6.6

Anton Zinkovskiy

Midfielder82'

6.55

Artem Makarchuk Midfielder

6.54

Ruslan Magal Midfielder

6.46

Gustavo Furtado

Midfielder64'

6.65

Mikhail Ignatov Attacker

6.73

François Kamano

Attacker77'

6.71

Roman Ezhov Attacker

6.5

Vladimir Iljin Attacker

6.77

Zakhar Fedorov

Attacker63'

6.55

Substitutes ▼

Zakhar Fedorov

Attacker63'

6.55

Dmitriy Vasiljev

Midfielder64'

6.71

Gustavo Furtado

Midfielder64'

6.65

François Kamano

Attacker77'

6.71

Anton Zinkovskiy

Midfielder82'

6.55

Bench ▼

Daniil Silev Goalkeeper

Y. Dyupin Goalkeeper

6.64

Sergey Volkov Defender

6.42

Artem Korneev Midfielder

6.46

Aleksandr Metsiev Midfielder

6.5

Pavel Meleshin Attacker

6.36

Ruslan Bart Attacker

6.55

Referee : Vladimir Moskalev