Sochi vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Sochi Sochi
1 – 1
Akhmat Grozny AKH
Full Time Sun, 17 May 3:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Martin Kramaric - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Klisman Cake - 85'

CONTEXT

The encounter between Sochi and Akhmat Grozny concluded with a 1-1 draw. Both teams went into the interval level at 0-0. Sochi recorded 39 percent possession compared to Akhmat Grozny's 61 percent. Akhmat Grozny entered as the stronger side yet could not claim all three points. Each team scored once after the break to share the spoils. The significant deviation associated with Akhmat Grozny did not produce a victory. No red cards were shown to either side. The result reflected a balanced contest in which defensive organization limited clear opportunities throughout the ninety minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant structural deviation was recorded for Akhmat Grozny.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG expectations could be evaluated from available data.
  • Event impact: The match produced a 1-1 draw after a 0-0 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore created no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Matveev

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Demeshko

1st Assistant

Russia

A. Bogdanov

2nd Assistant

Russia

A. Lapatukhin

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 28.15
Yellow cards / match 4.07
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.63
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
VS
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: 81 L
Orenburg Rank: 54 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 69 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 58 W
Rostov Rank: 61 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 W
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 63 D
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 58 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sochi
0%
Draw
0%
Away Akhmat Grozny
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.52
59.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sochi
Akhmat Grozny
Power Score
46.52
59.42
League Position
16
9
Global Rank
709
495

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sochi Akhmat Grozny

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
10.38
9.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.02
10.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sochi +0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Akhmat Grozny -0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Akhmat Grozny
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sochi Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sochi Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Akhmat Grozny
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sochi
vs
Akhmat Grozny
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sochi Akhmat Grozny
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sochi 0.14
Akhmat Grozny 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sochi Akhmat Grozny
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sochi 0.03
Akhmat Grozny 0.05
Sochi
Akhmat Grozny
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Sochi had peak pressure around 74'.
  • Sochi started the game with stronger pressure.
Sochi Pressure AKH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Sochi reached the top pressure at 74' (47.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sochi Sochi Home
11 matches
Akhmat Grozny AKH Away
Match Record
7
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
7
Goals
18
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
18
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T00:03:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
K. Zaika
Substitution
Russia
27 K. Zaika
K. Kravtsov
Russia
14 K. Kravtsov
D. Vasilev
Substitution
Russia
20 D. Vasilev
A. Makarchuk
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
A. Kovalenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Kovalenko
Z. Fedorov
Substitution
Russia
9 Z. Fedorov
A. Zinkovskiy
Substitution
Russia
7 A. Zinkovskiy
Pitch
G. Sheliya
Russia
88 G. Sheliya
M. Bogosavac
Substitution
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
O. Ndong
Senegal
90 O. Ndong
Ğ. Kenjebek
Substitution
Kazakhstan
23 Ğ. Kenjebek
I. Silva Lima
Brazil
11 I. Silva Lima
T. Ibishev
Russia
4 T. Ibishev
L. Sadulaev
Substitution
Russia
7 L. Sadulaev
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
M. Samorodov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
M. Konaté
Ivory Coast
13 M. Konaté

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht
Capacity :
47659
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stanislav Matveev
Igor Demeshko
Aleksandr Bogdanov
Aleksey Lapatukhin

Statistics

Possession
Sochi
44%
AKH
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Shots 4
21 Dangerous attacks 30
39 Possession 61
2 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

45 Ball Safe 58
5 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Kicks 5
8 Throwins 12
2 Injuries 2
4 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

49 Attacks 48

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Stanislav Matveev

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
14
Kirill Kravtsov
Kirill Kravtsov Midfielder
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Midfielder
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev Midfielder
28
Ruslan Magal
Ruslan Magal
Defender71'
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika Midfielder
11
Pavel Meleshin
Pavel Meleshin
Attacker88'
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy Attacker
29
Roman Ezhov
Roman Ezhov
Midfielder71'
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov Attacker
10
Martin Kramaric
Martin Kramaric
Midfielder26'
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko Attacker
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov
Midfielder88'
Referee : Stanislav Matveev

Starting XI ▼

88
Giorgiy Shelia
Giorgiy Shelia Goalkeeper
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
40
Rizvan Utsiev
Rizvan Utsiev
Defender90+1'
23
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Galymzhan Kenzhebek Defender
37
P. Gadio
P. Gadio
Midfielder61'
90
Ousmane N’Dong
Ousmane N’Dong Defender
4
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Turpal-Ali Ibishev Midfielder
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
82
Daniil Khlusevich
Daniil Khlusevich
Defender13'
11
Ismael Silva
Ismael Silva Midfielder
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
81
Maksim Sidorov
Maksim Sidorov
Defender90+1'
13
Mohamed Konaté
Mohamed Konaté Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Maksim Sidorov → Maksim Samorodov
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Rizvan Utsiev → Miroslav Bogosavac
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
10th Substitution
Event
Pavel Meleshin → Kirill Zaika
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Martin Kramaric
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
Event
Mikhail Ignatov → A. Kovalenko
6th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Klisman Cake
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Roman Ezhov → Anton Zinkovskiy
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Ruslan Magal → Dmitriy Vasiljev
5th Substitution
71'
61'
Event
P. Gadio → Galymzhan Kenzhebek
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
Martin Kramaric → Zakhar Fedorov
2nd Substitution
26'
13'
Event
Daniil Khlusevich → Lechi Sadulaev
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Maksim Sidorov is on, and Maksim Samorodov is off.
90
Update Update
Rizvan Utsiev is on, and Miroslav Bogosavac is off.
90
Update Update
Rizvan Utsiev is on, and Miroslav Bogosavac is off.
88
Update Update
Pavel Meleshin is on, and Kirill Zaika is off.
88
Update Update
Mikhail Ignatov replaces Aleksandr Kovalenko.
71
Update Update
Ruslan Magal comes on for Dmitri Vasiljev.
71
Substitution Substitution
Roman Ezhov is substituted for Anton Zinkovskiy.
61
Update Update
Papa Gadio is on, and Galymzhan Kenzhebek is off.
26
Update Update
Martin Kramaric is on, and Zakhar Fedorov is off.
13
Update Update
Daniil Khlusevich comes on for Lechii Sadulaev.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result between Sochi and Akhmat Grozny demonstrated a tightly contested fixture where possession advantages failed to yield a decisive edge. Akhmat Grozny maintained greater control of the ball yet both sides converted limited chances after the interval. The absence of red cards allowed both teams to retain full complements and maintain structured approaches. Halftime parity at 0-0 set the stage for an even second period that ultimately produced one goal each. This draw underscores how defensive discipline can neutralize statistical imbalances and lead to shared points when clear-cut opportunities remain scarce for either attack.

Sochi vs Akhmat Grozny preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.