Slaven Koprivnica vs Vukovar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Gradski Stadion Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
2 – 2
Vukovar Vukovar
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Marko Dabro - 49'
Josip Mitrovic - 43'
Goal
|
Goal
Robin González - 90+1'
Jakov Puljic - 10'

CONTEXT

In a captivating Croatian top-flight encounter, Slaven Koprivnica welcomed Vukovar to a stadium buzzing with anticipation, culminating in a hard-fought 2-2 draw. The halftime score sat at 1-1, mirroring the evenly poised first 45 minutes where both teams traded blows effectively. Slaven Koprivnica commanded 57% possession overall, generating pressure but struggling to break the deadlock decisively in the second half. Vukovar, labeled the stronger team pre-match, showcased resilience and timely strikes to salvage a point away from home. Free of red cards or major interruptions, the game flowed with intensity, highlighting defensive frailties on both ends. This outcome delivered a significant 73.4% structural deviation aligned with Vukovar's defiant performance, underscoring their ability to punch above weight despite lower ball control. The result leaves both clubs with momentum in a tightly contested league phase.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match registered a 73.4% structural deviation, deemed significant for Vukovar.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to lack of available data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed to materialize in the 2-2 draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No key events altered the course of the evenly matched contest.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the final 2-2 scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Pavlešić

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Zobenica

1st Assistant

F. Krznarić

2nd Assistant

F. Dragasevic

4th Official

Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
VS
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: D
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Slaven Koprivnica
50.5%
Draw
26.6%
Away Vukovar
22.9%

Movement

Changes since opening
Slaven Koprivnica
+44.25%
Draw
-62.69%
Vukovar
+18.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.29
16.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Slaven Koprivnica
Vukovar
Power Score
15.29
16.02
League Position
6
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Slaven Koprivnica Vukovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vukovar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.89
29.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.30
27.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Slaven Koprivnica -0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Vukovar +0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Vukovar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vukovar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Slaven Koprivnica Vukovar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Vukovar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Vukovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Slaven Koprivnica
vs
Vukovar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Slaven Koprivnica Vukovar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Slaven Koprivnica 0.37
Vukovar 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Vukovar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Slaven Koprivnica 0.06
Vukovar 0.05
Slaven Koprivnica
Vukovar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vukovar had peak pressure around 95'.
  • Slaven Koprivnica started the game with stronger pressure.
Slaven Koprivnica Pressure Vukovar Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vukovar reached the top pressure at 95' (85.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Home
3 matches
Vukovar Vukovar Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
8
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:03:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Hadzikic
Austria
31 O. Hadzikic
D. Kovačić
Croatia
4 D. Kovačić
F. Jović
Substitution
Serbia
22 F. Jović
Z. Katalinić
Croatia
5 Z. Katalinić
F. Krušelj
Croatia
18 F. Krušelj
L. Crepulja
Croatia
21 L. Crepulja
F. Mažar
Substitution
Croatia
17 F. Mažar
G. Sivalec
Substitution
Croatia
26 G. Sivalec
M. Dabro
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Dabro
I. Ćubelić
Croatia
15 I. Ćubelić
J. Mitrović
Croatia
11 J. Mitrović
Pitch
A. Đaković
Croatia
42 A. Đaković
K. Cabrajic
Substitution
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
A. Bosec
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Bosec
J. Gurlica
Substitution
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
M. Živković
Croatia
14 M. Živković
E. Shabani
Albania
77 E. Shabani
V. Čaić
Croatia
13 V. Čaić
L. Banovec
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
?. Butić
Substitution
27 ?. Butić
J. Puljić
Croatia
21 J. Puljić

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gradski Stadion
Capacity :
3205
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patrik Pavlešić
Bojan Zobenica
Filip Krznarić
Filip Dragasevic

Statistics

Possession
Slaven Koprivnica
55%
Vukovar
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 4
38 Dangerous attacks 32
57 Possession 43
1 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
26 Throwins 24
2 Assists 2
12 Successful Dribbles 13
18 Dribble Attempts 27
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

84 Attacks 65
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

427 Passes 312
81 Successful Passes Percentage 75
19 Successful Long Passes 19
54 Long Passes 51
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
347 Successful Passes 235
11 Key Passes 7

Defensive

49 Duels Won 56
23 Tackles 18
2 Saves 5
5 Interceptions 11

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 16
8 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

31
Osman Hadzikic
Osman Hadzikic Goalkeeper
6.67
4
Dominik Kovacic
Dominik Kovacic Defender
6.76
5
Zvonimir Katalinic
Zvonimir Katalinic Defender
6.46
18
Filip Kruselj
Filip Kruselj Defender
6.78
22
Filip Jovic
Filip Jovic Defender
6.31
20
Marko Petrovic
Marko Petrovic
33'
6.5
26
Gabrijel Sivalec
Gabrijel Sivalec Defender
6.46
24
Leon Bošnjak
Leon Bošnjak
59'
6.17
11
Josip Mitrovic
Josip Mitrovic Midfielder
6.95
15
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Midfielder
6.72
17
Filip Mažar
Filip Mažar Midfielder
6.71
2
Vinko Medjimorec
Vinko Medjimorec
82'
6.57
21
Ljuban Crepulja
Ljuban Crepulja Midfielder
6.94
7
Marko Dabro
Marko Dabro Attacker
6.54
23
Igor Lepinjica
Igor Lepinjica
82'
6.5
Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

42
Antonio Đaković
Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper
7.47
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec Defender
6.26
50
Josip Špoljarić
Josip Špoljarić
79'
6.44
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Defender
6.56
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
6.5
34
Mario Tadic
Mario Tadic
89'
6.67
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Defender
6.9
33
Luka Klanac
Luka Klanac
46'
6.48
10
Robin González
Robin González Midfielder
6.84
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Midfielder
6.53
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6.74
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
7.01
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Attacker
6.57
19
Alen Jurilj
Alen Jurilj
68'
6.64
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Attacker
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Robin González
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Marko Petrovic
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90'
89'
Event
Mario Tadic → Kristijan Cabrajic
8th Substitution
Event
Vinko Medjimorec → Filip Mažar
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Igor Lepinjica → Marko Dabro
6th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Josip Špoljarić → Antonio Bosec
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Alen Jurilj
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Alen Jurilj → Simun Butic
4th Substitution
Event
Dominik Kovacic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
64'
64'
Event
Luka Klanac
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Leon Bošnjak
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
Event
Leon Bošnjak → Gabrijel Sivalec
3rd Substitution
59'
57'
Event
Antonio Bosec
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Marko Dabro
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
49'
46'
Event
Luka Klanac → Jakov Gurlica
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Josip Mitrovic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
41'
Event
Lovro Banovec
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Marko Petrovic → Filip Jovic
1st Substitution
33'
Event
Ivan Cubelic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'
18'
Event
Var
10'
Event
Jakov Puljic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 stalemate between Slaven Koprivnica and Vukovar epitomizes a clash of styles, where possession supremacy met opportunistic finishing. Slaven Koprivnica's 57% control yielded parity but no edge, as Vukovar capitalized efficiently to match them goal-for-goal from a 1-1 halftime position. Devoid of red cards or tactical overhauls, the draw authentically captures both teams' capabilities, with Vukovar's performance amplifying their status as the stronger side. This significant structural deviation redefines narratives around the away team's potential, fostering belief in their campaign trajectory. Points shared propel both forward, yet Vukovar extracts greater validation from defying expectations on the road.

Slaven Koprivnica vs Vukovar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.