Slaven Koprivnica vs Hajduk Split Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Gradski Stadion Fri, 17 Apr - 3:45 PM
1. HNL
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
2 – 2
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 3:45 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Ivan Cubelic - 51'
Marko Dabro - 4'
Goal
|
Goal
Tomislav Bozic - 63' (Own Goal)
Ante Rebić - 38'

CONTEXT

In an exhilarating Croatian HNL clash, Slaven Koprivnica and Hajduk Split played out a 2-2 draw at Gradski Stadion. The home side Slaven Koprivnica, underdogs against the stronger Hajduk Split, matched their opponents blow for blow. The first half ended 1-1, with both teams finding the net once, keeping the score even at halftime. Hajduk controlled possession at 56% to Slaven's 44%, but Slaven's resilience shone through in a gritty performance. No red cards marred the contest, allowing continuous flow. The match featured a moderate structural deviation of 9.9% favoring Hajduk Split, yet the outcome reflected balanced competition. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations, and pre-match market views aligned with the draw. Without xG data, deeper chance analysis remains elusive, but the result underscores Slaven's fighting spirit against a superior foe.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Moderate 9.9% deviation favored Hajduk Split.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations not assessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout tie affected play.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Kolarić

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Starčević

1st Assistant

D. Kolarević

2nd Assistant

F. Dragasevic

4th Official

Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gorica Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 21 - 42
42

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Slaven Koprivnica
5.46%
Draw
90.12%
Away Hajduk Split
4.42%

Movement

Changes since opening
Slaven Koprivnica
+1.06%
Draw
+7.7%
Hajduk Split
-8.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.24
33.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Slaven Koprivnica
Hajduk Split
Power Score
18.24
33.25
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Slaven Koprivnica Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.18
20.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.98
38.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Slaven Koprivnica +1.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Hajduk Split -1.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Hajduk Split
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Slaven Koprivnica Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Slaven Koprivnica
vs
Hajduk Split
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Slaven Koprivnica Hajduk Split
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Slaven Koprivnica 0.25
Hajduk Split 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Hajduk Split
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Slaven Koprivnica 0.04
Hajduk Split 0.04
Slaven Koprivnica
Hajduk Split
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Slaven Koprivnica had peak pressure around 56'.
  • Slaven Koprivnica started the game with stronger pressure.
Slaven Koprivnica Pressure Hajduk Split Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Slaven Koprivnica reached the top pressure at 56' (88.32).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 70 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Home
70 matches
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Away
Match Record
7
Wins
42
21
Draws
21
42
Losses
7
Goals
49
Goals Scored
118
118
Goals Conceded
49
-69
Goal Difference
+69

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:01:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Hadzikic
Austria
31 O. Hadzikic
F. Krušelj
Croatia
18 F. Krušelj
T. Božić
Croatia
6 T. Božić
D. Kovačić
Croatia
4 D. Kovačić
F. Jović
Serbia
22 F. Jović
I. Ćubelić
Croatia
15 I. Ćubelić
L. Crepulja
Croatia
21 L. Crepulja
F. Mažar
Croatia
17 F. Mažar
K. Išasegi
Substitution
Croatia
33 K. Išasegi
M. Dabro
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Dabro
J. Mitrović
Croatia
11 J. Mitrović
Pitch
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
D. Melnjak
Croatia
17 D. Melnjak
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
Z. Šarlija
Croatia
31 Z. Šarlija
?. Hrgović
Substitution
Croatia
32 ?. Hrgović
F. Krovinović
Substitution
Croatia
23 F. Krovinović
A. Pajaziti
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
A. Rebić
Substitution
Croatia
9 A. Rebić
R. Pukstas
Substitution
United States
21 R. Pukstas
R. Brajković
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
M. Livaja
Croatia
10 M. Livaja

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 03:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gradski Stadion
Capacity :
3205
Attendance :
2713
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patrik Kolarić
Ivan Starčević
Dario Kolarević
Filip Dragasevic

Statistics

Possession
Slaven Koprivnica
46%
Hajduk Split
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 4
56 Dangerous attacks 55
44 Possession 56
6 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
26 Dribble Attempts 13
20 Throwins 18
16 Successful Dribbles 8
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
6 Goal Kicks 8
3 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 3
102 Attacks 125

Possession

351 Passes 457
59 Long Passes 41
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
1 Key Passes 1
76 Successful Passes Percentage 84
23 Successful Long Passes 20
268 Successful Passes 382

Defensive

54 Duels Won 52
11 Interceptions 9
18 Tackles 18
3 Saves 3

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 19
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

31
Osman Hadzikic
Osman Hadzikic Goalkeeper
6.66
4
Dominik Kovacic
Dominik Kovacic Defender
6.75
6
Tomislav Bozic
Tomislav Bozic Defender
6.79
18
Filip Kruselj
Filip Kruselj Defender
6.79
22
Filip Jovic
Filip Jovic Defender
6.37
11
Josip Mitrovic
Josip Mitrovic Midfielder
6.96
15
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Midfielder
6.68
17
Filip Mažar
Filip Mažar Midfielder
6.79
21
Ljuban Crepulja
Ljuban Crepulja Midfielder
6.87
33
Karlo Isasegi
Karlo Isasegi Midfielder
6.66
26
Gabrijel Sivalec
Gabrijel Sivalec
Attacker36'
6.46
7
Marko Dabro
Marko Dabro Attacker
6.54
9
Ivan Bozic
Ivan Bozic
Attacker89'
6.8
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.88
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
6.99
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Defender
6.78
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Defender
6.94
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.8
36
Marino Skelin
Marino Skelin
Defender71'
6.71
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.88
9
Ante Rebić
Ante Rebić Midfielder
7.04
30
Iker Almena
Iker Almena
Attacker83'
7
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
7.37
7
Anthony Kalik
Anthony Kalik
Midfielder83'
6.65
23
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic Midfielder
7.11
6
Hugo Guillamón
Hugo Guillamón
Midfielder28'
6.95
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
6.98
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Attacker
7.18

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ivan Bozic → Marko Dabro
7th Substitution
89'
83'
Event
Iker Almena → Ante Rebić
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Anthony Kalik → Rokas Pukstas
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Adrion Pajaziti
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vinko Medjimorec → Gabrijel Sivalec
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Josip Mitrovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
71'
Event
Marino Skelin → Simun Hrgovic
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Tomislav Bozic
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Ivan Cubelic
Goal awarded
53'
Event
Ivan Cubelic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
51'
Event
Marko Dabro
Goal disallowed
50'
46'
Event
Marko Livaja
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Ante Rebić
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Gabrijel Sivalec → Karlo Isasegi
2nd Substitution
36'
28'
Event
Hugo Guillamón → Filip Krovinovic
1st Substitution
Event
Marko Dabro
Header / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

This 2-2 draw highlights Slaven Koprivnica's tenacity in holding Hajduk Split, the stronger team, to a stalemate despite lower possession. Level at halftime and no disruptions from red cards, the game showcased even contest. Moderate deviation towards Hajduk did not sway the result, with efficiency on track and market alignment confirmed. Lacking xG, the focus stays on tangible efforts yielding parity. A creditable point for Slaven, while Hajduk rue missed dominance. Expect this to influence league standings subtly.

Slaven Koprivnica vs Hajduk Split preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.