Slaven Koprivnica vs Gorica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Gradski Stadion Sun, 10 May - 4:15 PM
1. HNL
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
1 Winner 0
Gorica Gorica
Full Time Sun, 10 May 4:15 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Filip Kruselj - 70'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Slaven Koprivnica edged out Gorica 1-0 in a hard-fought encounter that remained goalless at halftime with the score 0-0. Despite Gorica controlling 55% of possession compared to Slaven's 45%, the home team demonstrated superior clinical finishing to secure the victory. No expected goals (xG) data was available, but the result marked a significant structural deviation of 68.9% in Slaven Koprivnica's favor, as they outperformed pre-match assessments where Gorica held a slight edge. Slaven, identified as the stronger side, maintained efficiency in line with expectations throughout. The match proceeded without red cards or major disruptions, allowing tactical battles to define the outcome. Second-half adjustments were minimal, highlighting Slaven's resilience under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Slaven Koprivnica's 1-0 win exhibited a 68.9% significant structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment absent as result diverged from pre-match probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable events significantly influenced match proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Oliver Romić

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Reljan

2nd Assistant

Croatia

K. Novosel

1st Assistant

Croatia

Antonio Melnjak

4th Official

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.02
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.07
Penalties / match 0.33
Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
VS
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 L
Vukovar Rank: 55 D
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 D
Varaždin Rank: 66 L
Rijeka Rank: 72 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 81 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 W
Vukovar Rank: 56 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Varaždin Rank: 66 D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 9 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Slaven Koprivnica
31.05%
Draw
27.65%
Away Gorica
41.3%

Movement

Changes since opening
Slaven Koprivnica
-63.67%
Draw
+22.56%
Gorica
+41.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.21
61.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Slaven Koprivnica
Gorica
Power Score
62.21
61.74
League Position
7
8
Global Rank
424
437

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Slaven Koprivnica Gorica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.33
13.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.82
31.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Slaven Koprivnica +1.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Gorica -1.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Gorica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Slaven Koprivnica Gorica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Gorica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Gorica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Slaven Koprivnica
vs
Gorica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Slaven Koprivnica Gorica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Slaven Koprivnica 0.29
Gorica 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Gorica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Slaven Koprivnica 0.00
Gorica 0.02
Slaven Koprivnica
Gorica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Gorica had peak pressure around 69'.
  • Slaven Koprivnica started the game with stronger pressure.
Slaven Koprivnica Pressure Gorica Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Gorica reached the top pressure at 69' (84.21).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Home
31 matches
Gorica Gorica Away
Match Record
12
Wins
10
9
Draws
9
10
Losses
12
Goals
44
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
44
+12
Goal Difference
-12

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:05:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
O. Hadzikic
Austria
31 O. Hadzikic
V. Međimorec
Croatia
2 V. Međimorec
M. Lešković
Substitution
Croatia
13 M. Lešković
D. Kovačić
Croatia
4 D. Kovačić
F. Krušelj
Croatia
18 F. Krušelj
I. Ćubelić
Croatia
15 I. Ćubelić
L. Crepulja
Croatia
21 L. Crepulja
Z. Katalinić
Substitution
Croatia
5 Z. Katalinić
I. Lepinjica
Substitution
Croatia
23 I. Lepinjica
L. Bošnjak
Substitution
Croatia
24 L. Bošnjak
L. Ratshukudu
Substitution
Botswana
14 L. Ratshukudu
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
M. Čabraja
Substitution
Croatia
19 M. Čabraja
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
S. Peric
Substitution
Austria
45 S. Peric
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 J. Pršir
T. Epailly
Substitution
France
64 T. Epailly
A. Erceg
Croatia
50 A. Erceg

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gradski Stadion
Capacity :
3205
Attendance :
616
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oliver Romić
Marko Reljan
Kristijan Novosel
Antonio Melnjak

Statistics

Possession
Slaven Koprivnica
49%
Gorica
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 1
42 Dangerous attacks 32
45 Possession 55
2 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
17 Throwins 29
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
25 Dribble Attempts 20
16 Successful Dribbles 4
9 Goal Kicks 6
2 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

109 Attacks 124
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 28
78 Successful Passes Percentage 80
52 Long Passes 71
296 Successful Passes 370
379 Passes 465
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
12 Key Passes 5

Defensive

2 Saves 1
81 Duels Won 53
28 Tackles 20
6 Interceptions 5

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 12
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

5 Offsides 1
17 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Oliver Romić

Starting XI ▼

31
Osman Hadzikic
Osman Hadzikic Goalkeeper
2
Vinko Medjimorec
Vinko Medjimorec Defender
4
Dominik Kovacic
Dominik Kovacic Defender
13
Marko Leskovic
Marko Leskovic Defender
99
Filip Kutleša
Filip Kutleša
Defender76'
5
Zvonimir Katalinic
Zvonimir Katalinic Midfielder
33
Karlo Isasegi
Karlo Isasegi
Defender65'
15
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Midfielder
18
Filip Kruselj
Filip Kruselj Midfielder
21
Ljuban Crepulja
Ljuban Crepulja Midfielder
24
Leon Bošnjak
Leon Bošnjak Midfielder
8
Leon Geci
Leon Geci
Midfielder88'
14
Losika Ratshukudu
Losika Ratshukudu Attacker
90
Ilija Nestorovski
Ilija Nestorovski
Attacker77'
23
Igor Lepinjica
Igor Lepinjica Attacker
29
Marko Aščić
Marko Aščić
Attacker77'
Referee : Oliver Romić

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Defender
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Attacker78'
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
5
Mateo Les
Mateo Les
Defender45+2'
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis
Midfielder78'
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Attacker
20
Luka Vrzic
Luka Vrzic
Attacker62'
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly Attacker
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Mario Carević
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Leon Geci → Leon Bošnjak
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Leon Bošnjak
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
78'
Event
Stjepan Kucis → Bruno Bogojevic
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Sule Wisdom Aondowase → Marijan Cabraja
9th Substitution
Event
Marko Aščić → Igor Lepinjica
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Ilija Nestorovski → Losika Ratshukudu
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Filip Kutleša → Marko Leskovic
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Filip Kruselj
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
70'
68'
Event
Mateo Les
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Karlo Isasegi → Zvonimir Katalinic
4th Substitution
65'
62'
Event
Luka Vrzic → Jurica Prsir
3rd Substitution
Event
Marko Leskovic
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Zvonimir Katalinic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
46'
Event
Domagoj Pavicic → Théo Epailly
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Mateo Les → Stefan Peric
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ilja Nestorovski misses with a left-footed shot.
88
Update Update
Leon Geci comes on for Leon Bosnjak.
87
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Pavicic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Sule Wisdom Aondowase takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Update Update
Stjepan Kucis replaces Bruno Bogojevic.
78
Update Update
Sule Wisdom Aondowase replaces Marijan Cabraja.
77
Attempt Attempt
Marko Ascic's header is saved.
77
Update Update
Marko Ascic replaces Igor Lepinjica.
77
Update Update
Ilja Nestorovski comes on for Losika Ratshukudu.
76
Update Update
Filip Kutlesa comes on for Marko Leskovic.
73
Attempt Attempt
Ljuban Crepulja takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Filip Kruselj scores with a left-footed shot.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mateo Les.
65
Update Update
Karlo Isasegi comes on for Zvonimir Katalinic.
62
Update Update
Luka Vrzic comes on for Jurica Prsir.
61
Attempt Attempt
Ante Kavelj's header is saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Filip Kruselj takes a left-footed shot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Jurica Prsir takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zvonimir Katalinic receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Domagoj Pavicic is on, and Theo Epailly is off.
45
Update Update
Mateo Les replaces Stefan Peric.
42
Attempt Attempt
Igor Lepinjica's left-footed shot is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Kovacic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Losika Ratshukudu's right-footed shot is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Leon Bosnjak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Update Update
Marko Leskovic's header hits the post.
27
Attempt Attempt
Losika Ratshukudu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Igor Lepinjica's left-footed shot is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Ante Erceg takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Oliver Romic.

CONCLUSION

Slaven Koprivnica's 1-0 triumph over Gorica underscores their status as the stronger team, converting limited possession into a decisive result. The significant 68.9% structural deviation highlights how they exceeded expectations in a possession-disadvantaged game. With efficiency aligned and no disruptive events like red cards, the win reflects tactical discipline and opportunism. This outcome, unaligned with pre-match market views favoring Gorica slightly, boosts Slaven's momentum while exposing Gorica's inefficiency despite ball dominance. A solid performance positions Slaven favorably moving forward.

Slaven Koprivnica vs Gorica preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.