SK Rapid vs Salzburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Allianz Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 12:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
SK Rapid SCR
1 Winner 0
Salzburg RBS
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 7 Championship Round
Ercan Kara - 88'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

SK Rapid pulled off a remarkable 1-0 upset victory over the stronger Salzburg at home, ending the match with a narrow lead after a tense encounter. The first half concluded 0-0, maintaining parity as both sides probed for openings without success. Rapid controlled 57% possession against Salzburg's 43%, dictating the tempo yet waiting until the second half to strike decisively with their lone goal. This result defied pre-match expectations, where Salzburg entered as favorites, showcasing Rapid's defensive solidity and opportunistic attack. No red cards disrupted play, and the absence of major second-half adjustments kept the game structured. The win highlights Rapid's home resilience, potentially reshaping their campaign while denting Salzburg's title aspirations in a tightly contested league.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SK Rapid's victory exhibited a 71.8% structural deviation from expectations, deemed significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome diverged from pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Ciochirca

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Katholnig

2nd Assistant

D. Pfister

4th Official

R. Brandner

1st Assistant

SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
VS
Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.61
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: D
Austria Wien Rank: D
Sturm Graz Rank: L
LASK Linz Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: W
LASK Linz Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: W
Sturm Graz Rank: D
SK Rapid Rank: L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 20 - 44
44

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Rapid
28.15%
Draw
26.76%
Away Salzburg
45.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
SK Rapid
-67.08%
Draw
+22.18%
Salzburg
+44.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.86
25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Power Score
21.86
25
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Rapid Salzburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Salzburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.75
31.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.28
11.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Rapid -1.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Salzburg +1.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Salzburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Salzburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Rapid Salzburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Rapid Salzburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Salzburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Rapid
vs
Salzburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Rapid Salzburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Rapid 0.15
Salzburg 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Rapid Salzburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Rapid 0.00
Salzburg 0.03
SK Rapid
Salzburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RBS had peak pressure around 74'.
  • RBS started the game with stronger pressure.
SCR Pressure RBS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RBS reached the top pressure at 74' (59.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 81 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Rapid SCR Home
81 matches
Salzburg RBS Away
Match Record
17
Wins
44
20
Draws
20
44
Losses
17
Goals
101
Goals Scored
147
147
Goals Conceded
101
-46
Goal Difference
+46
Expected Goals
1.08
xG
1.75
1.75
xGA
1.08

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:04:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
N. Hedl
Austria
1 N. Hedl
J. Schöller
Substitution
Austria
4 J. Schöller
N. Cvetković
Substitution
Serbia
55 N. Cvetković
S. Raux Yao
France
6 S. Raux Yao
B. Bolla
Hungary
77 B. Bolla
A. Romeo
Ivory Coast
29 A. Romeo
M. Seidl
Austria
18 M. Seidl
K. Ahoussou
Ivory Coast
20 K. Ahoussou
P. Dahl
Substitution
Norway
10 P. Dahl
J. Antiste
Substitution
France
90 J. Antiste
A. Weimann
Substitution
Austria
26 A. Weimann
Pitch
A. Schlager
Austria
1 A. Schlager
F. Krätzig
Substitution
Germany
13 F. Krätzig
T. Drexler
Germany
21 T. Drexler
J. Schuster
Austria
44 J. Schuster
S. Lainer
Austria
22 S. Lainer
K. Alajbegović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
27 K. Alajbegović
M. Kjaergaard
Denmark
14 M. Kjaergaard
M. Bidstrup
Substitution
Denmark
18 M. Bidstrup
Y. Vertessen
Substitution
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
S. Kitano
Japan
8 S. Kitano
K. Konaté
Substitution
Ivory Coast
19 K. Konaté

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 7 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Allianz Stadion
Capacity :
28345
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca
Luka Katholnig
Daniel Pfister
Roland Brandner

Statistics

Possession
SCR
55%
RBS
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 7
34 Dangerous attacks 49
57 Possession 43
5 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
10 Successful Dribbles 5
20 Throwins 14
8 Goal Kicks 5
20 Dribble Attempts 13
84 Ball Safe 75
3 Goal Attempts 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

69 Attacks 75
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
565 Passes 418
4 Key Passes 10
46 Long Passes 51
27 Successful Long Passes 19
495 Successful Passes 334

Defensive

54 Duels Won 44
7 Interceptions 11
16 Tackles 19
1 Saves 1

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 5
17 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
6.82
4
Jakob Schöller
Jakob Schöller Defender
6.23
16
Tobias Børkeeiet
Tobias Børkeeiet
Midfielder79'
6.59
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Defender
6.9
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
7.1
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Attacker51'
6.81
18
Matthias Seidl
Matthias Seidl Midfielder
7.2
20
Ange Ahoussou
Ange Ahoussou Midfielder
6.72
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Midfielder
6.96
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Midfielder
7.08
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl Attacker
6.79
8
Lukas Grgic
Lukas Grgic
Midfielder79'
6.52
26
Andreas Weimann
Andreas Weimann Attacker
6.64
9
Ercan Kara
Ercan Kara
Attacker69'
6.82
90
Janis Antiste
Janis Antiste Attacker
6.69
22
Yusuf Demir
Yusuf Demir
Attacker69'
6.62
Referee : Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
6.79
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Defender
7.02
3
Aleksa Terzic
Aleksa Terzic
Defender90'
6.79
21
Tim Drexler
Tim Drexler Defender
6.6
22
Stefan Lainer
Stefan Lainer Defender
6.98
44
Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster Defender
7.05
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Midfielder
6.9
24
Damir Redzic
Damir Redzic
Attacker84'
6.7
14
Maurits Kjærgaard
Maurits Kjærgaard Midfielder
7.15
18
Mads Bidstrup
Mads Bidstrup Midfielder
6.95
43
Enrique Aguilar
Enrique Aguilar
Attacker90'
6.6
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic Midfielder
7.38
49
Moussa Yeo
Moussa Yeo
Midfielder57'
6.79
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano Attacker
6.9
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté Attacker
6.89
9
Karim Onisiwo
Karim Onisiwo
Attacker57'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Enrique Aguilar → Mads Bidstrup
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Aleksa Terzic → Frans Krätzig
10th Substitution
Event
Ercan Kara
3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Ercan Kara
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
88'
84'
Event
Damir Redzic → Yorbe Vertessen
8th Substitution
Event
Tobias Børkeeiet → Jakob Schöller
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Lukas Grgic → Petter Nosa Dahl
7th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Stefan Lainer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ercan Kara → Andreas Weimann
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Yusuf Demir → Janis Antiste
4th Substitution
69'
57'
Event
Karim Onisiwo → Karim Konaté
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Moussa Yeo → Kerim Alajbegovic
3rd Substitution
Event
Nikolaus Wurmbrand → Nenad Cvetkovic
1st Substitution
51'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nenad Cvetkovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'

CONCLUSION

SK Rapid's 1-0 triumph over Salzburg cements their status as surprise challengers, leveraging superior possession into a clinical finish that toppled the favorites. The goalless halftime set the stage for Rapid's second-half breakthrough, exposing Salzburg's inability to convert despite their pedigree. With efficiencies holding steady and no disruptive events, this significant deviation underscores football's volatility. Rapid gains crucial momentum, climbing standings with bolstered confidence, while Salzburg faces scrutiny over wasted dominance. Home advantage proved pivotal, affirming that precision often trumps strength in decisive moments.

SK Rapid vs Salzburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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