SK Rapid vs Austria Wien Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Allianz Stadion Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
SK Rapid SCR
0 Winner 2
Austria Wien FAK
Full Time Sun, 10 May 3:00 PM
Round 9 Championship Round
|
Goal
Tin Plavotic - 60'
Sanel Saljic - 9'

CONTEXT

In a stunning upset in the Austrian Bundesliga, SK Rapid hosted Austria Wien and suffered a 0-2 defeat despite controlling 70% of possession. The visitors struck first in the first half, leading 1-0 at halftime, and added a second goal after the break to secure victory. Rapid dominated the ball but failed to convert chances, while Austria Wien capitalized efficiently on counters. Identified as the stronger team, Austria Wien defied pre-match expectations where Rapid held a higher implied probability. This result marks a significant structural deviation of 70.6% in favor of the winners. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments were minimal. Rapid's inability to break down a resolute defense highlighted their wastefulness, contrasting sharply with Austria Wien's clinical finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Austria Wien's win showed a 70.6% structural deviation, rated significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved in the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Weinberger

Austria
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Kolbitsch

1st Assistant

Austria

A. Rekik

2nd Assistant

Austria

F. Jäger

4th Official

Austria

League averages

Admiral Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.18
Yellow cards / match 3.42
Red cards / match 0.24
Penalties / match 0.3
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
VS
Austria Wien S. Helm
S. Helm
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz Rank: 67 L
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Hartberg Rank: 60 L
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
Austria Wien Rank: 65 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: 60 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 D
Salzburg Rank: 69 L
Salzburg Rank: 67 L
SK Rapid Rank: 59 D
LASK Linz Rank: 69 L
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 26 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Rapid
42.75%
Draw
27.87%
Away Austria Wien
29.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
SK Rapid
+42.53%
Draw
+25.95%
Austria Wien
-68.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.97
65.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Rapid
Austria Wien
Power Score
58.97
65.07
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
530
333

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Austria Wien — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Rapid Austria Wien

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Austria Wien

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria Wien
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.64
26.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.33
19.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Rapid -0.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Austria Wien +0.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Austria Wien
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria Wien
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Rapid Austria Wien
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Rapid Austria Wien
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Austria Wien
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Rapid
vs
Austria Wien
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Rapid Austria Wien
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Rapid 0.20
Austria Wien 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Rapid Austria Wien
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Rapid 0.11
Austria Wien 0.00
SK Rapid
Austria Wien
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCR had peak pressure around 98'.
  • SCR started the game with stronger pressure.
SCR Pressure FAK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCR reached the top pressure at 98' (65.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 75 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Rapid SCR Home
75 matches
Austria Wien FAK Away
Match Record
25
Wins
24
26
Draws
26
24
Losses
25
Goals
101
Goals Scored
95
95
Goals Conceded
101
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
N. Hedl
Austria
1 N. Hedl
J. Schöller
Substitution
Austria
4 J. Schöller
N. Cvetković
Serbia
55 N. Cvetković
S. Raux Yao
France
6 S. Raux Yao
B. Bolla
Hungary
77 B. Bolla
A. Romeo
Ivory Coast
29 A. Romeo
L. Grgic
Substitution
Austria
8 L. Grgic
J. Horn
Substitution
Germany
38 J. Horn
J. Antiste
Substitution
France
90 J. Antiste
P. Dahl
Norway
10 P. Dahl
A. Weimann
Austria
26 A. Weimann
Pitch
S. Sahin-Radlinger
Austria
1 S. Sahin-Radlinger
T. Plavotic
Croatia
24 T. Plavotic
A. Dragović
Austria
15 A. Dragović
P. Wiesinger
Substitution
Austria
28 P. Wiesinger
T. Lee
South Korea
17 T. Lee
P. Maybach
Substitution
Austria
6 P. Maybach
A. Bari
Substitution
Gambia
5 A. Bari
R. Ranftl
Austria
26 R. Ranftl
S. Saljic
Substitution
Austria
20 S. Saljic
M. Fischer
Austria
30 M. Fischer
J. Eggestein
Substitution
Germany
19 J. Eggestein

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 9 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Allianz Stadion
Capacity :
28345
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Julian Weinberger
Maximilian Kolbitsch
Amar Rekik
Florian Jäger

Statistics

Possession
SCR
67%
FAK
33%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 1
55 Dangerous attacks 18
70 Possession 30
4 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

12 Successful Dribbles 3
4 Substitutions 5
1 Goal Kicks 13
27 Throwins 19
29 Dribble Attempts 8
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
0 Assists 2
8 Goal Attempts 6
2 Injuries 1
97 Ball Safe 69

Attacking

157 Attacks 58
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

16 Successful Long Passes 15
7 Key Passes 5
522 Successful Passes 162
40 Long Passes 57
86 Successful Passes Percentage 65
604 Passes 248
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26

Defensive

3 Saves 1
64 Duels Won 44
9 Interceptions 15
15 Tackles 27

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
19 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

4 Offsides 4
7 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
4
Jakob Schöller
Jakob Schöller Defender
22
Yusuf Demir
Yusuf Demir
Attacker65'
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Defender
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
8
Lukas Grgic
Lukas Grgic Midfielder
17
Tobias Gulliksen
Tobias Gulliksen
Midfielder82'
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Midfielder
38
Jannes Horn
Jannes Horn Midfielder
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Attacker25'
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Midfielder
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl Attacker
26
Andreas Weimann
Andreas Weimann Attacker
90
Janis Antiste
Janis Antiste Attacker
9
Ercan Kara
Ercan Kara
Attacker65'
Referee : Julian Weinberger

Starting XI ▼

1
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger Goalkeeper
15
Aleksandar Dragovic
Aleksandar Dragovic Defender
24
Tin Plavotic
Tin Plavotic Defender
28
Philipp Wiesinger
Philipp Wiesinger Defender
46
Johannes Handl
Johannes Handl
Defender56'
5
Abubakr Barry
Abubakr Barry Midfielder
66
Ifeanyi Ndukwe
Ifeanyi Ndukwe
Defender90+3'
6
Philipp Maybach
Philipp Maybach Midfielder
22
Florian Wustinger
Florian Wustinger
Midfielder80'
17
Tae-seok Lee
Tae-seok Lee Midfielder
26
Reinhold Ranftl
Reinhold Ranftl Midfielder
19
Johannes Eggestein
Johannes Eggestein Attacker
36
Vasilije Markovic
Vasilije Markovic
Midfielder80'
20
Sanel Saljic
Sanel Saljic Attacker
14
Kelvin Boateng
Kelvin Boateng
Attacker56'
30
Manfred Fischer
Manfred Fischer Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Ifeanyi Ndukwe → Abubakr Barry
9th Substitution
Event
Tobias Gulliksen → Lukas Grgic
8th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Vasilije Markovic → Johannes Eggestein
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Florian Wustinger → Philipp Maybach
7th Substitution
Event
Ercan Kara → Janis Antiste
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Yusuf Demir → Jakob Schöller
4th Substitution
65'
60'
Event
Tin Plavotic
Header / 2nd Goal
56'
Event
Johannes Handl → Philipp Wiesinger
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Kelvin Boateng → Sanel Saljic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Aleksandar Dragovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Nikolaus Wurmbrand → Jannes Horn
1st Substitution
25'
19'
Event
Reinhold Ranftl
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Sanel Saljic
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nikolaus Wurmbrand attempts a header but misses the shot.
82
Update Update
Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen comes on for Lukas Grgic.
80
Update Update
Florian Wustinger comes on for Philipp Maybach.
80
Update Update
Vasilije Markovic comes on for Johannes Eggestein.
76
Attempt Attempt
Manfred Fischer's right-footed shot is saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Demir takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
68
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Demir takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Ercan Kara comes on for Janis Antiste.
65
Update Update
Yusuf Demir comes on for Jakob Maximilian Scholler.
63
Attempt Attempt
Bendeguz Bolla takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Bendeguz Bolla takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Update Update
Tin Plavotic scores with a header.
59
Attempt Attempt
Philipp Maybach's right-footed shot is saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Kelvin Boateng's right-footed shot is blocked.
56
Update Update
Kelvin Boateng is on, and Sanel Saljic is off.
56
Update Update
Johannes Handl is on, and Philipp Wiesinger is off.
44
Attempt Attempt
Philipp Wiesinger's header is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Janis Antiste attempts a header but misses the shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Grgic's left-footed shot is blocked.
25
Update Update
Nikolaus Wurmbrand comes on for Jannes Horn.
23
Attempt Attempt
Jannes Horn takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Petter Nosa Dahl takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Jannes Horn takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Update Update
Sanel Saljic scores with a header.
4
Attempt Attempt
Petter Nosa Dahl takes a shot with his head but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Petter Nosa Dahl takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Austria Wien's 0-2 triumph over possession-heavy SK Rapid underscores the value of efficiency over dominance in modern football. Despite Rapid's 70% ball control and territorial advantage, they generated no goals, allowing the visitors to thrive on the break. This significant deviation from pre-match structure highlights Austria Wien's tactical discipline and sharper finishing. As the designated stronger side, they validated their potential without relying on set-piece fortune or disciplinary lapses. Rapid must address their profligacy, while Austria Wien builds momentum from this road win. The result serves as a reminder that quality trumps quantity in chance creation and conversion.

SK Rapid vs Austria Wien preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.