SK Poltava vs Oleksandria Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Zirka Fri, 3 Apr - 12:30 PM
Premier League SK Poltava SK Poltava 
3 – 3
Oleksandria Oleksandria Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 22 · Regular Season
Dmytro Plakhtyr - 72'
Bogdan Kobzar - 60'
A. Doroshenko - 40'
|
Mateus Amaral - 37', 31'
Bryan Castillo - 7'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match between SK Poltava and Oleksandria has finished, concluding in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Oleksandria initially looked poised for a comfortable victory after taking a commanding 3-1 lead into the halftime break, but the hosts mounted a resilient second-half comeback to level the scoreline. This result failed to align with pre-match market expectations, which heavily favored the stronger away side. Oleksandria entered the contest with a 53.3% win probability, compared to SK Poltava's 21.6% and a 25.2% chance of a draw. Consequently, the stalemate constitutes a significant deviation from what was anticipated, acting as a notable setback for Oleksandria. In terms of match flow, SK Poltava dictated much of the play, finishing with a majority 56% possession compared to Oleksandria's 44%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final outcome truly aligned with the quality of chances created, the overall finishing efficiency shift was in line with standard play. Furthermore, the match remained a fair contest without major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either side.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Oleksandria showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
D. Reznikov
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
D. Podvalnyi
1st Assistant
A. Likarenko
2nd Assistant
L. Telbukh
4th Official
P. Matviychenko
VS
V. Sharan
0.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.36
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 49 L
Karpaty Rank: 48 L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 L
Kudrivka Rank: 43 L
Veres Rank: 46 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 56 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 50 L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 42 D
Kudrivka Rank: 43 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) SK Poltava21.56%
Draw
25.16%
Oleksandria53.28%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.87 46.34 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Poltava OleksandriaPower Score
35.87
46.34
League Position
16
15
Global Rank
1139
859
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Poltava Oleksandria
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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SK Poltava
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Oleksandria
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
SK Poltava ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.86
26.02
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.02
12.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Poltava -1.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Oleksandria +1.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
SK Poltava ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Poltava Oleksandria Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Poltava Oleksandria Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
SK Poltavavs
Oleksandria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Poltava Oleksandria Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Poltava 0.25
Oleksandria 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Poltava Oleksandria Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Poltava 0.06
Oleksandria 0.13
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
SK Poltava SK Poltava Home
1 matches
Oleksandria Oleksandria Away
Match Record 0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals 0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:01:57+00:00
STARTING XI
SK Poltava Oleksandria Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
1 M. Minchev
24 I. Ukhan
12 A. Savenkov
20 E. Misyura
95 I. Kotsyumaka
M. Buzhyn
#1980'
8 V. Odariuk
21 A. Doroshenko
D. Plakhtyr
#4458'
15 V. Danilenko
2 M. Kononov
B. Kobzar
#9358'
88 O. Vivdych
38 D. Sukhoruchko
1 V. Dolgyi
23 M. Ogarkov
86 A. Bol
26 M. Ferreira Campos
D. Skorko
#228'
91 B. Butko
20 D. Vashchenko
M. Rodrigues Teixeira
#6764'
11 A. Shulianskyi
9 D. Myshnov
2D. Kremchanin
#7779'
49 M. Ferreira Guimarães
27 T. Cara
P. Yade
#3779'
99 B. Castillo Rosendo
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 03, 2026, 12:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Stadion Zirka
👥 Capacity :
13667
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ , Clear
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Denis Reznikov
Dmytro Podvalnyi
Andrii Likarenko
Lyudmila Telbukh
Next Match
SK Poltava
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Fri, 10 Apr - 10:00 AM
Venue: Home
Oleksandria
vs
Karpaty
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 10:00 AM
Venue: Away
Statistics
Possession
SK Poltava
47%
Oleksandria
53%
Top Statistics
3 Goals 3
0 Shots 5
24 Dangerous attacks 49
56 Possession 44
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
Match Overview
12 Goal Kicks 7
1 Assists 3
3 Substitutions 5
Attacking
91 Attacks 99
Defensive
1 Saves 3
Discipline
16 Fouls 14
Lineup
SK Poltava Referee : Denis Reznikov
Manager ▼
P. Matviychenko Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Mykyta Minchev Goalkeeper
2 Mykyta Kononov Defender
12 Andriy Savenkov Defender
20 Yevgen Misyura Defender
24 Ilya Ukhan Defender
95 Igor Kotsyumaka Defender
8 Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
19Mykola Buzhyn
Defender80'
15 Vladyslav Danylenko Midfielder
44Dmytro Plakhtyr
Midfielder58'
21 A. Doroshenko Midfielder
38 Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
88 Oleksandr Vivdych Attacker
93Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker58'
Substitutes ▼
93Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker58'
44Dmytro Plakhtyr
Midfielder58'
19Mykola Buzhyn
Defender80'
Bench ▼
96
Daniil Yermolov Goalkeeper
5 Vadim Pidlepych Defender
7 Denys Galenkov Midfielder
11 O. Piatov Midfielder
10 V. Sad Attacker
Oleksandria Referee : Denis Reznikov
Manager ▼
V. Sharan Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Viktor Dolgyi Goalkeeper
23 Mykola Ogarkov Defender
26 Miguel Campos Defender
86 Anton Bol Defender
91 Bogdan Butko Defender
22Danil Skorko
Defender8'
9 Dmytro Myshnyov Midfielder
11 Artem Shulyanskyi Midfielder
67Mauro Rodrigues
Midfielder64'
20 Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
27 Tedi Cara Midfielder
49 Mateus Amaral Midfielder
2
77Dmytrii Kremchanin
Attacker79'
99 Bryan Castillo Attacker
37Papa Ndiaga Yade
Midfielder79'
Substitutes ▼
22Danil Skorko
Defender8'
67Mauro Rodrigues
Midfielder64'
77Dmytrii Kremchanin
Attacker79'
37Papa Ndiaga Yade
Midfielder79'
Bench ▼
72 Nazar Makarenko Goalkeeper
17 Artur Andreichyk Defender
97 Nazar Prokopenko Defender
24
Hussayn Touati Midfielder
30
Dmytro Chernysh Midfielder
44 Jhonnatan Silva Midfielder
79 Denys Khmeliovskyi Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Bogdan Kobzar
2nd Yellowcard
89'
Mykola Buzhyn → Volodymyr Odaryuk
7th Substitution
80'
79'
Dmytrii Kremchanin → Mateus Amaral
5th Substitution
79'
Papa Ndiaga Yade → Bryan Castillo
6th Substitution
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
72'
64'
Mauro Rodrigues → Artem Shulyanskyi
4th Substitution
Bogdan Kobzar
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
60'
Bogdan Kobzar → Oleksandr Vivdych
2nd Substitution
58'
Dmytro Plakhtyr → Vladyslav Danylenko
3rd Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
A. Doroshenko
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
40'
37'
Mateus Amaral
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
31'
Mateus Amaral
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Andriy Savenkov
1st Yellowcard
17'
8'
Danil Skorko → Bogdan Butko
1st Substitution
7'
Bryan Castillo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
3rd Yellowcard
4'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Oleksandria exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
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