SK Poltava vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Zirka Fri, 1 May - 12:30 PM
Premier League
SK Poltava SK Poltava
3 – 3
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Full Time Fri, 1 May 12:30 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
V. Sad - 16'
Danyil Sukhoruchko - 11'
Igor Kotsyumaka - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Bar Lin - 85'
Assane Seck - 7'
Carlos Paraco - 2'

CONTEXT

In a thrilling Ukrainian Premier League encounter, SK Poltava hosted Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih, ending in an exhilarating 3-3 draw. Poltava surged ahead with a dominant first half, netting three goals to Kryvbas's two, despite holding only 41% possession. Kryvbas, considered the stronger side, controlled the ball with 59% possession but trailed 3-2 at halftime. The second half saw Kryvbas mount a comeback, equalizing late to salvage a point. No red cards disrupted play, and the match featured no major tactical adjustments. This result marked a significant deviation from expectations, where Kryvbas was favored heavily. Poltava's efficiency in front of goal contrasted with their lower possession, highlighting their clinical finishing. The draw leaves both teams with mixed feelings, Poltava for dropping a lead and Kryvbas for not securing victory despite dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The 3-3 draw represented a 78.2% structural deviation, significant for favored Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments impacted the final score.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Paskhal

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Chos

1st Assistant

D. Kamornikov

2nd Assistant

S. Prychyna

4th Official

SK Poltava P. Matviychenko
P. Matviychenko
VS
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih P. van Leeuwen
P. van Leeuwen
0.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 53 L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 D
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 L
Oleksandria Rank: 44 D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 L
Karpaty Rank: 55 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 65 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 W
Kudrivka Rank: 42 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 62 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Poltava
18.55%
Draw
21.78%
Away Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
59.67%

Movement

Changes since opening
SK Poltava
+13.19%
Draw
-65.85%
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
+52.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.87
55.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Power Score
35.87
55.72
League Position
16
6
Global Rank
1171
621

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Poltava Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Poltava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.49
17.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.46
20.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Poltava +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Poltava Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Poltava Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Poltava
vs
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Poltava Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Poltava 0.25
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Poltava Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Poltava 0.07
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.11
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SK Poltava had peak pressure around 22'.
  • SK Poltava started the game with stronger pressure.
SK Poltava Pressure Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SK Poltava reached the top pressure at 22' (51.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Poltava SK Poltava Home
1 matches
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:01:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Minchev
Ukraine
1 M. Minchev
A. Savenkov
Ukraine
12 A. Savenkov
V. Pidlepych
Ukraine
5 V. Pidlepych
O. Veremiienko
Ukraine
33 O. Veremiienko
I. Kotsyumaka
Ukraine
95 I. Kotsyumaka
A. Doroshenko
Substitution
Ukraine
21 A. Doroshenko
V. Danilenko
Ukraine
15 V. Danilenko
V. Odariuk
Ukraine
8 V. Odariuk
V. Sad
Substitution
Ukraine
10 V. Sad
88
88
D. Sukhoruchko
Substitution
Ukraine
38 D. Sukhoruchko
Pitch
O. Kemkin
Ukraine
12 O. Kemkin
J. Nyabeye Dibango
Cameroon
55 J. Nyabeye Dibango
C. Rojas Torres
Venezuela
3 C. Rojas Torres
V. Volodymyr
Ukraine
4 V. Volodymyr
J. Jurčec
Croatia
2 J. Jurčec
B. Lin
Israel
18 B. Lin
Y. Shevchenko
Substitution
8 Y. Shevchenko
M. Zaderaka
Ukraine
94 M. Zaderaka
G. Mendoza Barrios
Venezuela
7 G. Mendoza Barrios
C. Paraco González
Venezuela
9 C. Paraco González
A. Seck
Substitution
Senegal
14 A. Seck

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Zirka
Capacity :
13667
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Igor Paskhal
Maksim Chos
Dmytro Kamornikov
Sofia Prychyna

Statistics

Possession
SK Poltava
45%
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
7 Shots 8
28 Dangerous attacks 46
41 Possession 59
1 Corners 7
7 Free kicks 5
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 2
3 Substitutions 2

Attacking

91 Attacks 90

Defensive

1 Saves 2

Discipline

2 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Igor Paskhal

Starting XI ▼

1
Mykyta Minchev
Mykyta Minchev Goalkeeper
6.67
5
Vadim Pidlepych
Vadim Pidlepych Defender
6.1
12
Andriy Savenkov
Andriy Savenkov Defender
6.12
33
Oleg Veremiyenko
Oleg Veremiyenko Defender
6.07
95
Igor Kotsyumaka
Igor Kotsyumaka Defender
6.21
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
6.33
15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Vladyslav Danylenko Midfielder
6.38
21
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko Midfielder
6.46
44
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Midfielder88'
6.35
10
V. Sad
V. Sad Attacker
6.67
93
Bogdan Kobzar
Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker81'
6.46
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
6.61
14
Maksym Marusych
Maksym Marusych
Attacker81'
6.48
88
Alexander Vivdych Attacker
Referee : Igor Paskhal

Starting XI ▼

12
Oleksandr Kemkin
Oleksandr Kemkin Goalkeeper
6.33
2
Jan Jurcec
Jan Jurcec Defender
6.3
3
Carlos Rojas
Carlos Rojas Defender
6.33
4
Volodymyr Vilivald
Volodymyr Vilivald Defender
6.44
55
Yvan Dibango
Yvan Dibango Defender
6.49
7
Gleiker Mendoza
Gleiker Mendoza Midfielder
7
8
Yaroslav Shevchenko
Yaroslav Shevchenko Midfielder
6.55
24
Volodymyr Mulyk
Volodymyr Mulyk
Attacker86'
6.47
14
Assane Seck
Assane Seck Midfielder
6.66
10
Giovany Herbert
Giovany Herbert
Attacker67'
6.39
18
Bar Lin
Bar Lin Midfielder
6.65
94
Maksym Zaderaka
Maksym Zaderaka Midfielder
6.55
9
Carlos Paraco
Carlos Paraco Attacker
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Carlos Rojas
Var
90+5'
Event
Volodymyr Vilivald
Video review / Goal Disallowed
Event
Bogdan Kobzar
4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Mykyta Minchev
3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Dmytro Plakhtyr → A. Doroshenko
5th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
Volodymyr Mulyk → Yaroslav Shevchenko
4th Substitution
85'
Event
Bar Lin
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Maksym Marusych → Danyil Sukhoruchko
3rd Substitution
81'
Event
Bogdan Kobzar → V. Sad
2nd Substitution
81'
67'
Event
Giovany Herbert → Assane Seck
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Jan Jurcec
2nd Yellowcard
Event
V. Sad
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
16'
Event
Vladyslav Danylenko
1st Yellowcard
12'
Event
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
11'
Event
Igor Kotsyumaka
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
8'
7'
Event
Assane Seck
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
2'
Event
Carlos Paraco
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Volodymyr Vilivald.
88
Update Update
Dmytro Plakhtyr replaces Arsentiy Doroshenko.
86
Update Update
Volodymyr Mulyk replaces Yaroslav Shevchenko Volodymyrovych.
81
Update Update
Maksym Marusych replaces Danyil Sukhoruchko.
81
Update Update
Bogdan Kobzar replaces Valeriy Sad.
70
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Carlos Rojas.
67
Update Update
Giovany Herbert comes on for Assane Seck.

CONCLUSION

SK Poltava's first-half blitz gave them a 3-2 halftime lead, but Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih's possession edge paid off with a second-half equalizer for a 3-3 draw. Despite being the stronger team with 59% possession, Kryvbas failed to convert dominance into victory, resulting in a significant deviation from expectations. Poltava's efficiency shone through limited ball control, securing a valuable point. This high-scoring affair showcased attacking intent from both sides, with no disciplinary issues. The result underscores Poltava's resilience at home while exposing Kryvbas's vulnerability under pressure.

SK Poltava vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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