SK Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Zirka Sat, 16 May - 10:00 AM
Premier League
SK Poltava SK Poltava
0 Winner 2
Dynamo Kyiv DYN
Full Time Sat, 16 May 10:00 AM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Eduardo Guerrero - 90+1'
Andriy Yarmolenko - 3' (P)

CONTEXT

SK Poltava faced Dynamo Kyiv in a contest that concluded with a 0-2 away win for the visitors. The halftime score was 0-1 after Dynamo Kyiv struck first. Home side possession settled at 44 percent while the away team held 56 percent. No red cards were shown to either side allowing uninterrupted play. Dynamo Kyiv as the stronger team controlled proceedings from the opening stages and protected their advantage without requiring major second half changes. The significant deviation of 17 percent favored the eventual winners and the outcome proved consistent with overall expectations. This performance underscored the quality difference between the sides as SK Poltava struggled to create meaningful threats.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dynamo Kyiv recorded a significant structural deviation of 17 percent in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for the stronger side.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remained undetermined because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The result was market aligned with Dynamo Kyiv claiming the victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to null values in the data.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead of 1-0 produced a decisive event impact on the 0-2 finish.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role with zero dismissals on either team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Rayda

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Hovhannesyan

1st Assistant

Ukraine

A. Bakhmetyev

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

S. Prychyna

4th Official

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.84
Yellow cards / match 3.18
Red cards / match 0.15
Penalties / match 0.27
SK Poltava P. Matviychenko
P. Matviychenko
VS
Dynamo Kyiv I. Kostyuk
I. Kostyuk
0.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 59 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 75 L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 53 L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 43 D
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 55 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 75 L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 54 W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Poltava
4.96%
Draw
12.09%
Away Dynamo Kyiv
82.95%

Movement

Changes since opening
SK Poltava
+4.2%
Draw
+7.54%
Dynamo Kyiv
-11.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.09
66.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Poltava
Dynamo Kyiv
Power Score
35.09
66.06
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
1190
298

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Poltava Dynamo Kyiv

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Poltava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.80
33.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.48
15.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Poltava -1.79 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Kyiv +1.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Dynamo Kyiv
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Poltava Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Poltava Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Dynamo Kyiv
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Poltava
vs
Dynamo Kyiv
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Poltava Dynamo Kyiv
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Poltava 0.13
Dynamo Kyiv 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Poltava Dynamo Kyiv
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Poltava 0.04
Dynamo Kyiv 0.00
SK Poltava
Dynamo Kyiv
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DYN had peak pressure around 13'.
  • DYN started the game with stronger pressure.
SK Poltava Pressure DYN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DYN reached the top pressure at 13' (59.35).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Poltava SK Poltava Home
1 matches
Dynamo Kyiv DYN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:54:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
M. Minchev
Ukraine
1 M. Minchev
A. Savenkov
Ukraine
12 A. Savenkov
E. Misyura
Ukraine
20 E. Misyura
V. Pidlepych
Ukraine
5 V. Pidlepych
I. Kotsyumaka
Substitution
Ukraine
95 I. Kotsyumaka
A. Doroshenko
Substitution
Ukraine
21 A. Doroshenko
V. Danilenko
Substitution
Ukraine
15 (C) V. Danilenko
V. Odariuk
Ukraine
8 V. Odariuk
V. Sad
Substitution
Ukraine
10 V. Sad
D. Galenkov
Ukraine
7 D. Galenkov
D. Sukhoruchko
Substitution
Ukraine
38 D. Sukhoruchko
Pitch
V. Surkis
Ukraine
71 V. Surkis
V. Dubinchak
Ukraine
44 V. Dubinchak
A. Thiare
Senegal
66 A. Thiare
K. Bilova
Ukraine
40 K. Bilova
M. Korobov
Ukraine
13 M. Korobov
V. Brazhko
Substitution
Ukraine
6 V. Brazhko
O. Ogundana
16 O. Ogundana
M. Shaparenko
Substitution
Ukraine
10 M. Shaparenko
O. Pikhalyonok
Substitution
Ukraine
8 O. Pikhalyonok
A. Yarmolenko
Substitution
Ukraine
7 (C) A. Yarmolenko
V. Lobko
Substitution
Ukraine
19 V. Lobko

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Zirka
Capacity :
13667
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mykhailo Rayda
Dmytro Hovhannesyan
Andrii Bakhmetyev
Sofia Prychyna

Statistics

Possession
SK Poltava
44%
DYN
56%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
4 Shots 9
39 Dangerous attacks 55
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 6
1 Free kicks 2
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

25 Throwins 25
5 Successful Dribbles 17
10 Goal Kicks 5
7 Dribble Attempts 19
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 89
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1

Attacking

85 Attacks 84

Possession

58 Long Passes 57
207 Successful Passes 310
30 Successful Long Passes 32
298 Passes 396
69 Successful Passes Percentage 78
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

1 Tackles 2
13 Interceptions 22
6 Saves 1

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
15 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

17 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mykhailo Rayda

Starting XI ▼

1
Mykyta Minchev
Mykyta Minchev Goalkeeper
7.21
5
Vadim Pidlepych
Vadim Pidlepych Defender
5.92
12
Andriy Savenkov
Andriy Savenkov Defender
5.79
20
Yevgen Misyura
Yevgen Misyura Defender
6.16
95
Igor Kotsyumaka
Igor Kotsyumaka Defender
6.85
19
Mykola Buzhyn
Mykola Buzhyn
Defender83'
6.05
7
Denys Galenkov
Denys Galenkov Midfielder
6.2
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
6.92
10
V. Sad
V. Sad Midfielder
6.23
11
O. Piatov
O. Piatov
Midfielder70'
6.32
15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Vladyslav Danylenko (C) Midfielder
6.04
44
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Midfielder83'
21
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko Midfielder
6.72
14
Maksym Marusych
Maksym Marusych
Midfielder83'
6.39
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
6.48
93
Bogdan Kobzar
Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker26'
6.27
Referee : Mykhailo Rayda

Starting XI ▼

71
Viacheslav Surkis
Viacheslav Surkis Goalkeeper
6.79
13
Maksym Korobov
Maksym Korobov Defender
6.53
40
Kristian Bilovar
Kristian Bilovar Defender
6.73
44
Vladyslav Dubinchak
Vladyslav Dubinchak Defender
6.72
66
Aliou Thiaré
Aliou Thiaré Defender
7.83
6
Volodymyr Brazhko
Volodymyr Brazhko Midfielder
6.8
91
Mykola Mykhaylenko
Mykola Mykhaylenko
Midfielder46'
6.69
7
Andriy Yarmolenko
Andriy Yarmolenko (C) Midfielder
7.44
9
Nazar Voloshyn
Nazar Voloshyn
Midfielder59'
7.59
8
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Midfielder
7.24
29
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
Midfielder59'
7.46
10
Mykola Shaparenko
Mykola Shaparenko Midfielder
6.81
5
Oleksandr Yatsyk
Oleksandr Yatsyk
Midfielder46'
6.66
16
Shola Ogundana
Shola Ogundana Midfielder
7.66
19
Vitaliy Lobko
Vitaliy Lobko Attacker
7.02
39
Eduardo Guerrero
Eduardo Guerrero
Attacker80'
7.4

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Eduardo Guerrero
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Mykola Buzhyn → Igor Kotsyumaka
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Dmytro Plakhtyr → Vladyslav Danylenko
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Maksym Marusych → A. Doroshenko
9th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Eduardo Guerrero → Vitaliy Lobko
7th Substitution
Event
O. Piatov → V. Sad
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Vladyslav Danylenko
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
59'
Event
Vitaliy Buyalskyi   → Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Nazar Voloshyn → Andriy Yarmolenko
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Mykola Mykhaylenko → Volodymyr Brazhko 
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Oleksandr Yatsyk → Mykola Shaparenko
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bogdan Kobzar → Danyil Sukhoruchko
1st Substitution
26'
Event
Yevgen Misyura
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
15'
Event
Aliou Thiaré
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
3'
Event
Andriy Yarmolenko
Penalty / 1st Penalty

Match Commentary

85
Update Update
Mykola Buzhyn replaces Igor Kotsyumaka.
85
Update Update
Maksym Marusych is on, and Arsentiy Doroshenko is off.
83
Update Update
Dmytro Plakhtyr comes on for Vladyslav Danylenko.
80
Update Update
Eduardo Guerrero comes on for Vitalii Lobko.
70
Update Update
Oleksandr Pyatov replaces Valeriy Sad.
60
Update Update
Nazar Voloshyn replaces Andriy Yarmolenko.
60
Update Update
Vitaliy Buyalskyi comes on for Oleksandr Pikhalyonok.
46
Update Update
Mykola Mykhailenko comes on for Volodymyr Brazhko.
46
Update Update
Oleksandr Yatsyk is on, and Mykola Shaparenko is off.
26
Update Update
Bogdan Kobzar comes on for Danyil Sukhoruchko.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mykhailo Mykhailovych Raida.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: SK Poltava 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv. Structural assessment: Dynamo Kyiv exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

SK Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.