Sirius vs Västerås SK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Studenternas IP Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Sirius SIR
4 Winner 1
Västerås SK Västerås SK
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
Henrik Castegren - 62'
Tobias Anker - 45+2'
Isak Bjerkebo - 31' (P), 8' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Frédéric Nsabiyumva - 53'

CONTEXT

Sirius delivered a commanding performance, thrashing Västerås SK 4-1 at home in a match that showcased their superiority. The hosts exploded into a 3-0 lead by halftime, overwhelming the visitors with relentless pressure and sharp finishing. Possession hovered evenly at 51% for Sirius against 49%, yet they converted opportunities far more effectively. The second half saw Västerås pull one back, but Sirius responded with a fourth goal to secure the points. As the pre-identified stronger team, Sirius faced minimal structural deviation of just 2.4%, staying true to expectations. No red cards marred the contest, allowing natural flow, while efficiency metrics aligned seamlessly with projections. This result reinforces Sirius's form in a balanced affair without dramatic shifts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sirius recorded minimal structural deviation of 2.4% from pre-match benchmarks.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with established pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing underlying data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome perfectly aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without available performance metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events significantly influenced proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Mattsson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hallin

1st Assistant

F. Rahimi

4th Official

J. Dahl

2nd Assistant

Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
VS
Västerås SK A. Rubin
A. Rubin
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hammarby Rank: W
Degerfors Rank: W
Värnamo Rank: W
Norrköping Rank: W
Elfsborg Rank: W
Häcken Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elfsborg Rank: D
Kalmar Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sirius
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Västerås SK
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
40.25
18.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sirius
Västerås SK
Power Score
40.25
18.37
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
Västerås SK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sirius Västerås SK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Västerås SK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Västerås SK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.12
22.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.35
34.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sirius +1.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Västerås SK -1.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Västerås SK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Västerås SK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sirius Västerås SK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sirius Västerås SK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Västerås SK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sirius
vs
Västerås SK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sirius Västerås SK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sirius 0.31
Västerås SK 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sirius Västerås SK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sirius 0.03
Västerås SK 0.08
Sirius
Västerås SK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIR had peak pressure around 49'.
  • SIR started the game with stronger pressure.
SIR Pressure Västerås SK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIR reached the top pressure at 49' (80.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sirius SIR Home
2 matches
Västerås SK Västerås SK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:03:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Celic
Sweden
34 D. Celic
H. Castegren
Sweden
5 H. Castegren
M. Soumah
Guinea
2 M. Soumah
T. Anker
Denmark
4 T. Anker
O. Krusnell
Sweden
22 O. Krusnell
M. Nartey
Substitution
8 M. Nartey
M. Heier
Substitution
Sweden
10 M. Heier
M. Lindberg
Denmark
6 M. Lindberg
O. Jönsson
Substitution
Sweden
17 O. Jönsson
R. Ure
Substitution
Scotland
9 R. Ure
I. Bjerkebo
Substitution
Sweden
11 I. Bjerkebo
Pitch
E. Jäger
Sweden
34 E. Jäger
V. Wernersson
Substitution
Sweden
21 V. Wernersson
F. Nsabiyumva
Burundi
18 F. Nsabiyumva
H. Magnusson
Substitution
Sweden
2 H. Magnusson
M. Baggesen
Substitution
Denmark
3 M. Baggesen
M. Diagne
Senegal
8 M. Diagne
J. Ring
Substitution
Sweden
10 J. Ring
S. Gefvert
Sweden
11 S. Gefvert
A. Boudah
Sweden
7 A. Boudah
M. Riis Ladefoged
Substitution
Denmark
9 M. Riis Ladefoged
A. Sountonoma Taonsa
Substitution
Ivory Coast
17 A. Sountonoma Taonsa

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Studenternas IP
Capacity :
10000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mikael Hallin
Fawad Rahimi
Jonas Dahl
Erik Mattsson

Statistics

Possession
SIR
52%
Västerås SK
48%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 3
48 Dangerous attacks 39
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 8
12 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 6
17 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 6
22 Throwins 22
2 Penalties 0
8 Goal Attempts 6
81 Ball Safe 72
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
1 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 6
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 97

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 79
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
346 Successful Passes 325
12 Key Passes 7
54 Long Passes 42
25 Successful Long Passes 13
432 Passes 412

Defensive

11 Interceptions 18
59 Duels Won 57
21 Tackles 22
1 Saves 1

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 20
4 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Erik Mattsson

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
7.15
2
Mohamed Soumah
Mohamed Soumah Defender
7.65
4
Tobias Anker
Tobias Anker Defender
7.15
5
Henrik Castegren
Henrik Castegren Defender
7.11
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Defender
6.63
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Midfielder
7.04
8
Matthias Nartey
Matthias Nartey Midfielder
6.86
21
Charlie Nildén
Charlie Nildén
Midfielder70'
6.66
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Midfielder
6.8
24
Victor Svensson
Victor Svensson
Midfielder86'
6.79
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Attacker
7.47
25
Odera Samuel Adindu
Odera Samuel Adindu
Attacker86'
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Attacker
2
7.35
26
Hugo Mella
Hugo Mella
Midfielder86'
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson Attacker
6.77
7
Joakim Persson
Joakim Persson
Attacker57'
6.41
Referee : Erik Mattsson

Starting XI ▼

34
Elis Jäger
Elis Jäger Goalkeeper
6.82
2
Herman Magnusson
Herman Magnusson Defender
6.82
14
I. Lushaku
I. Lushaku
Midfielder71'
6.8
18
Frédéric Nsabiyumva
Frédéric Nsabiyumva Defender
6.94
21
Victor Wernersson
Victor Wernersson Defender
6.74
24
Jack Tagesson
Jack Tagesson
Defender90+1'
3
Marcus Baggesen
Marcus Baggesen Midfielder
7.12
15
Jonathan Karlsson
Jonathan Karlsson
Defender78'
6.2
8
Mamadou Diagne
Mamadou Diagne Midfielder
7.12
10
Jonathan Ring
Jonathan Ring Midfielder
7.12
4
Philip Bonde
Philip Bonde
Defender71'
6.36
11
Simon Gefvert
Simon Gefvert Midfielder
6.73
7
Abdelrahman Boudah
Abdelrahman Boudah Attacker
6.76
9
Mikkel Ladefoged
Mikkel Ladefoged Attacker
7.71
20
Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist
Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist
Defender78'
6.49
17
Axel Sountonoma Taonsa
Axel Sountonoma Taonsa Attacker
6.96
5
Karl Gunnarsson
Karl Gunnarsson
Midfielder78'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Jack Tagesson → Victor Wernersson
11th Substitution
Event
Marcus Lindberg
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
88'
Event
Odera Samuel Adindu → Robbie Ure
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Hugo Mella → Isak Bjerkebo
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Victor Svensson → Melker Heier
10th Substitution
86'
78'
Event
Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist → Mikkel Ladefoged
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Jonathan Karlsson → Marcus Baggesen
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Karl Gunnarsson → Axel Sountonoma Taonsa
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Philip Bonde → Jonathan Ring
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
I. Lushaku → Herman Magnusson
4th Substitution
Event
Charlie Nildén → Matthias Nartey
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Henrik Castegren
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
62'
Event
Joakim Persson → Neo Jönsson
1st Substitution
57'
53'
Event
Frédéric Nsabiyumva
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Tobias Anker
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
45+2'
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
31'
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
8'

CONCLUSION

Sirius's 4-1 triumph over Västerås SK underscores their dominance as the stronger outfit, with a blistering first-half hat-trick setting the tone. Even possession belied their superior chance conversion, minimal deviations, and market-aligned result. Without red cards or tactical upheavals, the match unfolded predictably, efficiency holding steady. This victory bolsters Sirius's momentum, highlighting clinical execution in a competitive yet controlled encounter that met all pre-match indicators precisely.

Sirius vs Västerås SK preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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