Sirius vs Örgryte Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Studenternas IP Mon, 11 May - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Sirius SIR
2 Winner 0
Örgryte Örgryte
Full Time Mon, 11 May 5:00 PM
Round 7 Regular Season
Isak Bjerkebo - 73', 39'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Sirius secured a 2-0 victory over Örgryte, asserting dominance as the stronger team throughout the match. They established a 1-0 lead by halftime and maintained control with 59% possession compared to Örgryte's 41%. The home side converted their territorial advantage into goals without facing any red card disruptions, as neither team received dismissals. This result reflects Sirius's structural edge, marked by a significant 21.1% deviation in their favor. Efficiency patterns stayed in line with preseason assessments, and the outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning where Sirius held a strong 78.9% implied probability. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the clean sheet and second-half consolidation underscore disciplined defending. No tactical adjustments were noted post-halftime, allowing Sirius to manage the game comfortably to full time.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sirius recorded a significant 21.1% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Mattsson

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Persson

4th Official

Sweden

A. Söderkvist

1st Assistant

Sweden

J. Dahl

2nd Assistant

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.05
Yellow cards / match 3.23
Red cards / match 0.05
Penalties / match 0.19
Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
VS
Örgryte A. Holmberg
A. Holmberg
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kalmar Rank: 50 W
Häcken Rank: 58 D
Malmö FF Rank: 64 W
Västerås SK Rank: 46 W
Hammarby Rank: 69 W
Degerfors Rank: 48 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
GAIS Rank: 58 L
Degerfors Rank: 48 D
Brommapojkarna Rank: 48 L
Hammarby Rank: 67 L
Mjällby Rank: 70 W
Malmö FF Rank: 63 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sirius
78.9%
Draw
13.47%
Away Örgryte
7.63%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sirius
-18.96%
Draw
+11.55%
Örgryte
+7.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.76
38.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sirius
Örgryte
Power Score
63.76
38.86
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
379
987

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
Örgryte — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sirius Örgryte

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Örgryte

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Örgryte
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.07
21.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.83
44.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sirius +2.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Örgryte -2.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Örgryte
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Örgryte
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sirius Örgryte
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sirius Örgryte
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Örgryte
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sirius
vs
Örgryte
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sirius Örgryte
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sirius 0.38
Örgryte 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sirius Örgryte
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sirius 0.00
Örgryte 0.03
Sirius
Örgryte
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIR had peak pressure around 42'.
  • SIR started the game with stronger pressure.
SIR Pressure Örgryte Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIR reached the top pressure at 42' (92.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sirius SIR Home
0 matches
Örgryte Örgryte Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
D. Celic
Sweden
34 D. Celic
V. Ekström
Sweden
20 V. Ekström
M. Soumah
Guinea
2 M. Soumah
T. Anker
Denmark
4 T. Anker
O. Krusnell
Sweden
22 O. Krusnell
M. Heier
Sweden
10 M. Heier
M. Lindberg
Denmark
6 M. Lindberg
O. Jönsson
Substitution
Sweden
17 O. Jönsson
V. Svensson
Substitution
Denmark
24 V. Svensson
I. Bjerkebo
Substitution
Sweden
11 I. Bjerkebo
R. Ure
Scotland
9 R. Ure
Pitch
H. Gustafsson
Sweden
44 H. Gustafsson
D. Paulson
Sweden
14 D. Paulson
C. Styffe
Sweden
5 C. Styffe
M. Dyrestam
Guinea
6 M. Dyrestam
S. Lagerlund
Substitution
Sweden
33 S. Lagerlund
W. Svensson
Substitution
Sweden
24 W. Svensson
T. Sana
Sweden
22 T. Sana
C. Vindehall
Substitution
Sweden
7 C. Vindehall
B. Laturnus
Substitution
Canada
8 B. Laturnus
O. Parker-Price
Substitution
New Zealand
23 O. Parker-Price
J. Tibbling Ugwo
Sweden
15 J. Tibbling Ugwo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 7 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Studenternas IP
Capacity :
10000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Erik Mattsson
Max Persson
Andreas Söderkvist
Jonas Dahl

Statistics

Possession
SIR
59%
Örgryte
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
23 Shots 7
60 Dangerous attacks 39
59 Possession 41
5 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
17 Dribble Attempts 18
18 Throwins 22
9 Successful Dribbles 8
4 Goal Kicks 13
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1
66 Ball Safe 63
0 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
137 Attacks 87

Possession

49 Long Passes 60
26 Successful Long Passes 25
88 Successful Passes Percentage 78
616 Passes 417
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
543 Successful Passes 327
16 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Saves 4
21 Interceptions 9
58 Duels Won 45
22 Tackles 16

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 3
19 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

9 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Erik Mattsson

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
2
Mohamed Soumah
Mohamed Soumah Defender
4
Tobias Anker
Tobias Anker Defender
20
Victor Ekstrom
Victor Ekstrom Defender
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Defender
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Midfielder
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Midfielder
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Midfielder
2
26
Hugo Mella
Hugo Mella
Midfielder90'
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson Midfielder
7
Joakim Persson
Joakim Persson
Attacker61'
24
Victor Svensson
Victor Svensson Midfielder
21
Charlie Nildén
Charlie Nildén
Midfielder85'
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Attacker
Referee : Erik Mattsson

Starting XI ▼

44
Hampus Gustafsson
Hampus Gustafsson Goalkeeper
5
Christoffer Styffe
Christoffer Styffe Defender
6
Mikael Dyrestam
Mikael Dyrestam Defender
14
Daniel Paulson
Daniel Paulson Defender
24
William Svensson
William Svensson Defender
2
Michael Parker
Michael Parker
Defender77'
33
S. Lagerlund
S. Lagerlund Defender
19
Anton Andreasson
Anton Andreasson
Defender77'
7
Charlie Vindehall
Charlie Vindehall Midfielder
21
William Kenndal
William Kenndal
Midfielder85'
8
Benjamin Laturnus
Benjamin Laturnus Midfielder
29
Marlon Ebietomere
Marlon Ebietomere
Defender77'
22
Tobias Sana
Tobias Sana Midfielder
23
Owen Parker-Price
Owen Parker-Price Midfielder
17
William Hofvander
William Hofvander
Attacker61'
15
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Andreas Holmberg
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Hugo Mella → Isak Bjerkebo
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Odera Samuel Adindu → Joakim Persson
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Charlie Nildén → Victor Svensson
8th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
William Kenndal → Charlie Vindehall
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Anton Andreasson → S. Lagerlund
3rd Substitution
77'
Event
Michael Parker → William Svensson
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Marlon Ebietomere → Benjamin Laturnus
4th Substitution
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
73'
Event
Joakim Persson → Neo Jönsson
2nd Substitution
61'
61'
Event
William Hofvander → Owen Parker-Price
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
39'
20'
Event
Christoffer Styffe
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Hugo Andersson Mella is on, and Isak Bjerkebo is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Odera Samuel Adindu takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Odera Samuel Adindu takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
William Hofvander takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Substitution Substitution
William Kenndal is substituted for Charlie Vindehall.
86
Substitution Substitution
Odera Samuel Adindu is substituted for Joakim Persson.
85
Update Update
Charlie Nilden replaces Victor Svensson.
83
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Vindehall takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Marlon Ebietomere is on, and Benjamin Laturnus is off.
78
Substitution Substitution
Anton Andreasson is substituted for Sebastian Lagerlund.
78
Substitution Substitution
Michael Parker is substituted for William Svensson.
73
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo scores with a right-footed shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Substitution Substitution
William Hofvander is substituted for Owen Parker-Price.
61
Update Update
Joakim Persson is on, and Neo Jonsson is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Paulson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jerome Tibbling takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson's left-footed shot is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Ure takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo scores with a left-footed shot.
34
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Melker Heier takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson's left-footed shot is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
William Svensson takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson's right-footed shot is blocked.
22
Update Update
Victor Svensson attempted a header, but it went wide.
19
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Melker Heier's right-footed shot is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson's left-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Sirius's 2-0 win over Örgryte validated their status as the stronger side, with a halftime lead of 1-0 setting the tone for sustained pressure via superior possession. The significant structural deviation of 21.1% highlights their overperformance relative to benchmarks, while market alignment confirms the result matched pre-game favoritism. Lacking xG metrics, reliance falls on observable dominance and efficiency consistency. Without red cards or adjustments, the match proceeded predictably, emphasizing Sirius's control and Örgryte's inability to counter effectively.

Sirius vs Örgryte preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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