Sirius vs Kalmar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Studenternas IP Sat, 2 May - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Sirius SIR
3 Winner 2
Kalmar KAL
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:00 PM
Round 6 Regular Season
Isak Bjerkebo - 74' (P)
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Sirius delivered a stunning comeback in their Allsvenskan clash with Kalmar, overturning a 0-2 halftime deficit to triumph 3-2 at home. The hosts, recognized as the stronger team, dominated with 57% possession but found themselves trailing early after Kalmar struck twice before the break. Second-half fireworks saw Sirius net three unanswered goals, showcasing resilience and tactical nous without any red card interruptions. This result marked a significant 35.1% structural deviation in Sirius's favor, reflecting their efficiency in line with expectations. The absence of major disruptions allowed footballing quality to prevail, as Sirius capitalized on their superiority to claim all three points in a match defined by dramatic momentum shifts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sirius recorded a 35.1% structural deviation, deemed significant in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations across both halves.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without supporting data.
  • Event impact: No key events like red cards influenced the match proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Sundell

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Forsberg

4th Official

M. Hallin

1st Assistant

R. Nyberg

2nd Assistant

Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
VS
Kalmar T. Koskela
T. Koskela
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.8
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Häcken Rank: 58 D
Malmö FF Rank: 64 W
Västerås SK Rank: 46 W
Hammarby Rank: 69 W
Degerfors Rank: 48 W
Värnamo Rank: 43 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.8 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elfsborg Rank: 57 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 56 D
AIK Rank: 58 L
Djurgården Rank: 65 L
Västerås SK Rank: 48 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sirius
64.9%
Draw
20.7%
Away Kalmar
14.4%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sirius
-30.71%
Draw
+16.5%
Kalmar
+14.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.05
41.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sirius
Kalmar
Power Score
63.05
41.38
League Position
1
13
Global Rank
394
782

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
Kalmar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sirius Kalmar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kalmar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kalmar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.96
43.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.02
30.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sirius -1.25 Efficiency Index
vs
Kalmar +1.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Kalmar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kalmar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sirius Kalmar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sirius Kalmar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
Kalmar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sirius
vs
Kalmar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sirius Kalmar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sirius 0.28
Kalmar 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sirius Kalmar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sirius 0.04
Kalmar 0.06
Sirius
Kalmar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIR had peak pressure around 62'.
  • SIR started the game with stronger pressure.
SIR Pressure KAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIR reached the top pressure at 62' (64.46).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sirius SIR Home
16 matches
Kalmar KAL Away
Match Record
6
Wins
3
7
Draws
7
3
Losses
6
Goals
27
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
27
+9
Goal Difference
-9

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Celic
Sweden
34 D. Celic
H. Castegren
Sweden
5 H. Castegren
M. Soumah
Guinea
2 M. Soumah
T. Anker
Denmark
4 T. Anker
O. Krusnell
Substitution
Sweden
22 O. Krusnell
M. Heier
Sweden
10 M. Heier
M. Lindberg
Substitution
Denmark
6 M. Lindberg
O. Jönsson
Substitution
Sweden
17 O. Jönsson
V. Svensson
Substitution
Denmark
24 V. Svensson
I. Bjerkebo
Sweden
11 I. Bjerkebo
R. Ure
Substitution
Scotland
9 R. Ure

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 6 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Studenternas IP
Capacity :
10000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Richard Sundell
Oscar Forsberg
Mikael Hallin
Robert Nyberg

Statistics

Possession
SIR
56%
KAL
44%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 7
53 Dangerous attacks 50
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 6
19 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 20
55 Ball Safe 39
9 Successful Dribbles 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
19 Throwins 34
8 Goal Kicks 8
2 Assists 2
5 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 80
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 82
21 Successful Long Passes 15
46 Long Passes 39
433 Successful Passes 308
494 Passes 374
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
10 Key Passes 7

Defensive

63 Duels Won 42
22 Tackles 20
6 Interceptions 5
3 Saves 5

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
21 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
6 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Richard Sundell

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Mohamed Soumah
Mohamed Soumah Defender
7.5
4
Tobias Anker
Tobias Anker Defender
7.31
5
Henrik Castegren
Henrik Castegren Defender
6.99
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Defender
7
20
Victor Ekstrom
Victor Ekstrom
Defender53'
7.16
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Midfielder
7.17
25
Odera Samuel Adindu
Odera Samuel Adindu
Attacker88'
7.33
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Midfielder
6.84
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Midfielder
7.51
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson Midfielder
6.77
7
Joakim Persson
Joakim Persson
Attacker53'
6.59
24
Victor Svensson
Victor Svensson Midfielder
6.61
21
Charlie Nildén
Charlie Nildén
Midfielder88'
6.64
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Attacker
7.27
12
Isaac Höök Yawe
Isaac Höök Yawe
Defender90+5'
Referee : Richard Sundell

Starting XI ▼

30
J. Kindberg
J. Kindberg Goalkeeper
6.89
2
Victor Larsson
Victor Larsson Defender
6.46
4
R. Jansson
R. Jansson Defender
6.77
20
Achraf Dari
Achraf Dari Defender
6.93
39
L. Sætra
L. Sætra Defender
6.61
5
M. Hallberg
M. Hallberg Midfielder
6.76
17
C. Gustafsson
C. Gustafsson
Midfielder69'
6.84
7
N. Chourak
N. Chourak Midfielder
6.85
13
C. Rosenquist
C. Rosenquist Midfielder
6.94
3
S. Øverby
S. Øverby
Defender75'
6.54
23
R. Gojani
R. Gojani Midfielder
7.04
24
Charles Sagoe Jr
Charles Sagoe Jr Midfielder
6.99
10
Marius Söderbäck
Marius Söderbäck
Midfielder82'
6.56
11
A. Olusanya
A. Olusanya Attacker
6.87
6
V. Tyren
V. Tyren
Attacker69'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Isaac Höök Yawe → Robbie Ure
9th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Tobias Anker
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Odera Samuel Adindu
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
90'
Event
Victor Larsson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Odera Samuel Adindu → Marcus Lindberg
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Charlie Nildén → Victor Svensson
8th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Marius Söderbäck → Charles Sagoe Jr
6th Substitution
75'
Event
S. Øverby → C. Rosenquist
5th Substitution
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
74'
69'
Event
C. Gustafsson → M. Hallberg
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
V. Tyren → A. Olusanya
4th Substitution
Event
Victor Svensson
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Victor Ekstrom → Oscar Krusnell
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Joakim Persson → Neo Jönsson
2nd Substitution
53'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
A. Olusanya
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
R. Jansson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
38'
Event
C. Rosenquist
Header / 1st Goal
35'
Event
L. Sætra
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Isaac Hook is on, and Robbie Ure is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Odera Samuel Adindu takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Victor Larsson receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joakim Persson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marius Soderback takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Achraf Dari's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joakim Persson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Achraf Dari's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joakim Persson takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joakim Persson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Update Update
Charlie Nilden comes on for Victor Svensson.
88
Update Update
Odera Samuel Adindu comes on for Marcus Lindberg.
82
Update Update
Marius Soderback comes on for Charles Sagoe Jr.
81
Attempt Attempt
Carl Gustafsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
76
Update Update
Sivert Engh Overby comes on for Charlie Rosenqvist.
75
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo scores with a right-footed shot.
74
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Isak Bjerkebo scores, making it 2-2.
72
Attempt Attempt
Victor Ekstrom takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Carl Gustafsson is on, and Melker Hallberg is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Melker Heier's right-footed shot is saved.
69
Update Update
Vilmer Tyren replaces Anthony Olusanya.
64
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson scores with a right-footed shot.
61
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Anker takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Ure takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Ure takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Update Update
Joakim Persson is on, and Neo Jonsson is off.
53
Substitution Substitution
Victor Ekstrom is substituted for Oscar Krusnell.
46
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rony Jansson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rony Jansson scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rony Jansson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
40
Attempt Attempt
Charles Sagoe Jr. takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Charles Sagoe Jr. takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
38
Update Update
Charlie Rosenqvist scores with a header.
38
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Lindberg takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Henrik Castegren's header is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Nassef Chourak takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Charles Sagoe Jr. takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Charles Sagoe Jr. takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Rosenqvist takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Victor Larsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Victor Svensson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Sirius's 3-2 victory over Kalmar exemplifies their second-half prowess, transforming a precarious 0-2 halftime position into a hard-fought win through superior possession and clinical finishing. As the stronger team, they validated expectations with a performance free of disruptions, highlighting defensive resolve after the break. Kalmar's early promise faded, exposing vulnerabilities under pressure. This result, aligned with structural indicators, bolsters Sirius's campaign momentum while serving as a cautionary tale for opponents facing their comeback tenacity. The clean disciplinary record preserved the match's integrity, focusing attention on tactical execution and individual brilliance that tipped the scales decisively.

Sirius vs Kalmar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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