Sion vs Lugano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stade de Tourbillon Yesterday - 2:30 PM
Super League
Sion SIO
2 – 2
Lugano Lugano
Full Time Yesterday 2:30 PM
Round 37 Championship Round
Baltazar - 63'
Ilyas Chouaref - 55'
Goal
|
Goal
Antonios Papadopoulos - 90'
Georgios Koutsias - 31'

CONTEXT

Sion and Lugano played out a 2-2 draw in the Swiss Super League, with Lugano leading 1-0 at halftime thanks to their 51% possession edge over Sion's 49%. The second half saw Sion score twice to take the lead, only for Lugano to equalize and secure a point. No red cards were issued, maintaining full squad participation throughout. Lugano, identified as the stronger team, benefited from a significant 72.5% structural deviation in the result. Pre-match market probabilities assigned Sion a 46.8% win chance, draw at 27.5%, and Lugano 25.7%, indicating the outcome did not align with expectations. Team efficiencies remained in line with norms. xG data was unavailable for further analysis. The match highlighted even contestation and second-half resilience from the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The draw produced a significant 72.5% structural deviation benefiting Lugano.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: The 2-2 draw did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be determined without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Turkes

Switzerland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Müller

1st Assistant

Switzerland

I. Jancevski

2nd Assistant

Switzerland

Z. Prskalo

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

Super League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.57
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.46
Sion D. Tholot
D. Tholot
VS
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
1.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun Rank: 64 W
St. Gallen Rank: 65 W
Basel Rank: 63 W
Lausanne Sport Rank: 54 W
Grasshopper Rank: 49 W
St. Gallen Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Thun Rank: 66 W
Zürich Rank: 51 W
Thun Rank: 62 W
Young Boys Rank: 65 D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 11 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sion
46.81%
Draw
27.54%
Away Lugano
25.65%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sion
+39.7%
Draw
-61.33%
Lugano
+21.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.95
64.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sion
Lugano
Power Score
64.95
64.96
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
335
334

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sion — Opponent-weighted form score
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sion Lugano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lugano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.29
30.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.69
34.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sion +0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Lugano -0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sion
Lugano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lugano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sion Lugano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sion Lugano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sion
Lugano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sion
vs
Lugano
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sion Lugano
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sion 0.17
Lugano 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sion Lugano
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sion 0.06
Lugano 0.03
Sion
Lugano
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIO had peak pressure around 59'.
  • Lugano started the game with stronger pressure.
SIO Pressure Lugano Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIO reached the top pressure at 59' (68.39).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sion SIO Home
38 matches
Lugano Lugano Away
Match Record
12
Wins
15
11
Draws
11
15
Losses
12
Goals
61
Goals Scored
59
59
Goals Conceded
61
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
1.68
xG
1.22
1.22
xGA
1.68

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T00:02:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Racioppi
Switzerland
1 A. Racioppi
N. Lavanchy
Switzerland
14 N. Lavanchy
K. Hajrizi
Kosovo
28 K. Hajrizi
J. Kronig
Switzerland
17 J. Kronig
N. Hefti
Switzerland
20 N. Hefti
A. Kabacalman
Substitution
Switzerland
88 A. Kabacalman
B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
Brazil
8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
I. Chouaref
Substitution
France
7 I. Chouaref
J. Lukembila
Substitution
Switzerland
39 J. Lukembila
F. Surdez
Substitution
Switzerland
19 F. Surdez
R. Nivokazi
Substitution
Kosovo
33 R. Nivokazi
Pitch
D. von Ballmoos
Switzerland
16 D. von Ballmoos
H. Delcroix
Belgium
3 H. Delcroix
L. Mai
Germany
17 L. Mai
A. Papadopoulos
Germany
6 A. Papadopoulos
Y. Cimignani
Substitution
France
21 Y. Cimignani
U. Bislimi
Switzerland
25 U. Bislimi
A. Grgic
Substitution
Switzerland
8 A. Grgic
M. Zanotti
Italy
46 M. Zanotti
G. Koutsias
Substitution
Greece
9 G. Koutsias
M. Belhaj Mahmoud
Substitution
Tunisia
29 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
K. Behrens
Germany
91 K. Behrens

General Information

Date & Time :
May 14, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 37 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stade de Tourbillon
Capacity :
16263
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mirel Turkes
Nicolas Müller
Ilco Jancevski
Zrinko Prskalo

Statistics

Possession
SIO
50%
Lugano
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
76 Dangerous attacks 33
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
19 Throwins 19
11 Successful Dribbles 8
22 Dribble Attempts 18
5 Goal Kicks 10
2 Assists 1
70 Ball Safe 71
8 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

51 Long Passes 47
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
88 Successful Passes Percentage 87
9 Key Passes 8
29 Successful Long Passes 26
375 Successful Passes 403
426 Passes 463

Defensive

6 Interceptions 5
17 Tackles 14
5 Saves 1

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
32 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

15 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Mirel Turkes

Starting XI ▼

1
Anthony Racioppi
Anthony Racioppi Goalkeeper
14
Numa Lavanchy
Numa Lavanchy Defender
17
Jan Kronig
Jan Kronig Defender
20
Nias Hefti
Nias Hefti Defender
28
Kreshnik Hajrizi
Kreshnik Hajrizi Defender
7
Ilyas Chouaref
Ilyas Chouaref Midfielder
77
Donat Rrudhani
Donat Rrudhani
Midfielder81'
8
Baltazar
Baltazar Midfielder
19
Franck Surdez
Franck Surdez Midfielder
13
Winsley Boteli
Winsley Boteli
Attacker64'
39
Josias Lukembila
Josias Lukembila Midfielder
21
Liam Chipperfield
Liam Chipperfield
Midfielder64'
88
Ali Kabacalman
Ali Kabacalman Midfielder
5
Noé Sow
Noé Sow
Defender81'
33
Rilind Nivokazi
Rilind Nivokazi Attacker
29
Théo Berdayes
Théo Berdayes
Attacker70'
Referee : Mirel Turkes

Starting XI ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
14
Ahmed Kendouci
Ahmed Kendouci
Midfielder89'
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
7
Pablo Acebal
Pablo Acebal
Defender68'
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Midfielder
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias Attacker
24
Elias Pihlström
Elias Pihlström
Attacker68'
29
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud Attacker
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani
Attacker74'
91
Kevin Behrens
Kevin Behrens Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Winsley Boteli
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
90'
Event
Antonios Papadopoulos
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
Event
Ahmed Kendouci → Anto Grgic
9th Substitution
Event
Donat Rrudhani → Ilyas Chouaref
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Noé Sow → Ali Kabacalman
8th Substitution
81'
74'
Event
Mattia Bottani → Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
6th Substitution
Event
Théo Berdayes → Rilind Nivokazi
5th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Pablo Acebal → Yanis Cimignani
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Elias Pihlström → Georgios Koutsias
4th Substitution
Event
Winsley Boteli → Franck Surdez
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Liam Chipperfield → Josias Lukembila
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Baltazar
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
63'
Event
Baltazar
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Ilyas Chouaref
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
55'
Event
Kreshnik Hajrizi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Nias Hefti
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Georgios Koutsias
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'
Event
Anto Grgic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Winsley Boteli receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos scores with a right-footed shot.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Antonios Papadopoulos scores, making it 2-2.
90
Attempt Attempt
Elias Pihlstrom takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Update Update
Ahmed Kendouci comes on for Anto Grgic.
85
Attempt Attempt
Winsley Boteli's right-footed shot is blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Kreshnik Hajrizi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Substitution Substitution
Donat Rrudhani is substituted off for Ylyas Chouaref.
80
Substitution Substitution
Noe Sow is substituted for Ali Kabacalman.
76
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Behrens takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Behrens takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Mattia Bottani comes on for Hadj Mahmoud.
70
Update Update
Theo Berdayes replaces Rilind Nivokazi.
68
Update Update
Elias Pihlstrom is on, and Georgios Koutsias is off.
67
Attempt Attempt
Winsley Boteli takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ylyas Chouaref takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Ezgjan Alioski comes on for Yanis Cimignani.
64
Update Update
Winsley Boteli comes on for Franck Surdez.
64
Substitution Substitution
Winsley Boteli is substituted for Franck Surdez.
63
Attempt Attempt
Baltazar scores with a left-footed shot.
59
Attempt Attempt
Josias Lukembila takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Baltazar receives a yellow card.
57
Attempt Attempt
Rilind Nivokazi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Ylyas Chouaref takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
52
Attempt Attempt
Rilind Nivokazi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nias Hefti receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Anto Grgic's right-footed shot is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ylyas Chouaref's right-footed shot is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Josias Lukembila takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Georgios Koutsias takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Josias Lukembila has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Georgios Koutsias scores with a right-footed shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Uran Bislimi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Georgios Koutsias takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Franck Surdez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Lars Lukas Mai attempts a header but misses the shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Anto Grgic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Zanotti attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw encapsulates a competitive Swiss Super League fixture where Lugano's halftime lead evaporated amid Sion's determined second-half response. With possession nearly even and no red cards, the result reflects balanced capabilities despite Lugano's stronger designation. The significant structural deviation of 72.5% for Lugano and market misalignment underscore the draw's unexpected nature. Efficiencies held steady, and absent xG data limits deeper insights into chance quality. This outcome may prompt tactical reviews, particularly for Lugano to convert dominance into victories, while Sion gains momentum from their recovery.

Sion vs Lugano preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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