Sint-Truiden vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stayen Stadion Sat, 2 May - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Sint-Truiden SIT
2 Winner 1
Union Saint-Gilloise USG
Full Time Sat, 2 May 6:45 PM
Round 6 Championship Round
Ryotaro Ito - 90+10' (P)
Oumar Diouf - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Kevin Rodríguez - 90+2'
|
Red Card Kevin Mac Allister 12'

CONTEXT

Sint-Truiden secured a surprising 2-1 home win against the stronger Union Saint-Gilloise, dominating with 77% possession throughout the contest. The first half ended level at 0-0, with both teams cautious in attack. Momentum shifted dramatically in the second period when Union received a red card, leaving them with 10 players and disrupting their structure. Sint-Truiden capitalized ruthlessly, scoring twice while restricting the visitors to a lone consolation goal. This outcome represented a major upset, as the home side overcame pre-match perceptions through sustained pressure and clinical execution. Union's early threat dissipated under numerical inferiority, allowing Sint-Truiden to control proceedings and claim victory in a match full of second-half drama.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sint-Truiden's victory showed a significant 92.8% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as Sint-Truiden defied pre-match positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Union Saint-Gilloise's red card altered match dynamics decisively.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion drove second-half adjustments and outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Boterberg

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Debeuckelaere

2nd Assistant

M. Allaerts

4th Official

N. Senecaut

1st Assistant

Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.14
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: 69 W
Anderlecht Rank: 74 W
Gent Rank: 71 D
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Gent Rank: 72 D
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sint-Truiden
7.23%
Draw
89.53%
Away Union Saint-Gilloise
3.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.36
85.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sint-Truiden
Union Saint-Gilloise
Power Score
78.36
85.64
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
73
33

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Union Saint-Gilloise

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Union Saint-Gilloise
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.65
15.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.65
25.65
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sint-Truiden +0.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise -0.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Union Saint-Gilloise
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Union Saint-Gilloise
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Union Saint-Gilloise
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sint-Truiden
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sint-Truiden 0.12
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sint-Truiden 0.08
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.02
Sint-Truiden
Union Saint-Gilloise
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIT had peak pressure around 7'.
  • SIT started the game with stronger pressure.
SIT Pressure USG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIT reached the top pressure at 7' (69.50).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sint-Truiden SIT Home
13 matches
Union Saint-Gilloise USG Away
Match Record
2
Wins
9
2
Draws
2
9
Losses
2
Goals
11
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
11
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
1.45
xG
1.98
1.98
xGA
1.45

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
R. Vanwesemael
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
S. Taniguchi
Japan
5 S. Taniguchi
V. Musliu
Macedonia
26 V. Musliu
J. Pupe
Substitution
Belgium
23 J. Pupe
A. Sissako
France
8 A. Sissako
R. Yamamoto
Substitution
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
I. Sebaoui
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
R. Ito
Japan
13 R. Ito
R. Merlen
Substitution
France
14 R. Merlen
K. Goto
Japan
42 K. Goto
Pitch
K. Scherpen
Netherlands
37 K. Scherpen
R. Sykes
Substitution
England
26 R. Sykes
C. Burgess
England
16 C. Burgess
K. Mac Allister
Argentina
5 K. Mac Allister
O. Niang
Substitution
Senegal
22 O. Niang
A. Zorgane
Algeria
8 A. Zorgane
K. Van de Perre
Substitution
Belgium
6 K. Van de Perre
A. Khalaili
Israel
25 A. Khalaili
A. El Hadj
Substitution
Belgium
10 A. El Hadj
K. Rodríguez Cortéz
Substitution
Ecuador
13 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
G. da Silva Carvalho
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Carvalho

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stayen Stadion
Capacity :
14600
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jan Boterberg
K. Debeuckelaere
Michiel Allaerts
N. Senecaut

Statistics

Possession
SIT
71%
USG
29%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 3
115 Dangerous attacks 12
77 Possession 23
9 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Goal Kicks 17
3 Successful Dribbles 6
8 Dribble Attempts 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0
27 Throwins 18
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
69 Ball Safe 77
3 Injuries 5
15 Goal Attempts 2
3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

142 Attacks 54
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

10 Key Passes 2
90 Successful Passes Percentage 59
565 Successful Passes 112
629 Passes 191
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
18 Successful Long Passes 17
32 Long Passes 56

Defensive

13 Tackles 9
8 Interceptions 4
47 Duels Won 43
0 Saves 2

Build-up

46 Total Crosses 4
10 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
7
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
6.95
23
Joedrick Pupe
Joedrick Pupe Defender
6.93
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender85'
6.72
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu Defender
7.04
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
6.78
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7.16
—
Rihito Yamamoto
90+9'
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
6.94
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
6.91
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker63'
6.69
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
7.47
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen Midfielder
6.68
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker79'
6.71
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker
6.92
Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

37
Kjell Scherpen
Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
6.97
5
Kevin Mac Allister
Kevin Mac Allister Defender
7.16
16
Christian Burgess
Christian Burgess Defender
7.25
26
Ross Sykes
Ross Sykes Defender
7.29
29
Massiré Sylla
Massiré Sylla
Defender90'
5.5
6
Kamiel Van De Perre
Kamiel Van De Perre Midfielder
6.9
7
Mohammed Fuseini
Mohammed Fuseini
Attacker89'
6.44
8
Adem Zorgane
Adem Zorgane Midfielder
7.07
22
Ousseynou Niang
Ousseynou Niang Midfielder
6.84
17
Rob Schoofs
Rob Schoofs
Midfielder46'
7.11
25
Anan Khalaili
Anan Khalaili Midfielder
7.15
10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
6.99
48
Fedde Leysen
Fedde Leysen
Defender18'
6.93
11
Guilherme Smith
Guilherme Smith Attacker
6.97
13
Kevin Rodríguez
Kevin Rodríguez Attacker
6.99
27
Louis Patris
Louis Patris
Defender90+6'
7.12

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ryotaro Ito
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+10'
Event
Rihito Yamamoto↓ → Rihito Yamamoto
9th Substitution
90+9'
90+7'
Event
Massiré Sylla
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Louis Patris → Kevin Rodríguez
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Kevin Rodríguez
Header / 2nd Goal
90'
Event
Massiré Sylla → Ross Sykes
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Mohammed Fuseini → Kamiel Van De Perre
6th Substitution
Event
Oumar Diouf
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
86'
Event
Simen Juklerød → Joedrick Pupe
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Oumar Diouf → Ryan Merlen
4th Substitution
79'
67'
Event
Kamiel Van De Perre
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Ilias Sebaoui
3rd Substitution
63'
56'
Event
Christian Burgess
Off the ball foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Rob Schoofs → Ousseynou Niang
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Adem Zorgane
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Wouter Vrancken
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
34'
Event
Keisuke Goto
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
18'
Event
Fedde Leysen → Anouar Ait El Hadj
1st Substitution
12'
Event
Kevin Mac Allister
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Massire Sylla comes on for Ross Sykes.
90
Update Update
Kevin Rodriguez scores with a header.
90
Attempt Attempt
Keisuke Goto's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryotaro Ito takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Substitution Substitution
Louis Patris is substituted for Kevin Rodriguez.
89
Update Update
Mohammed Fuseini is on, and Kamiel Van De Perre is off.
87
Update Update
Goal! Abdoulaye Sissako scores to make it 1-0.
86
Update Update
Visar Musliu's header is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Diouf scores with a right-footed shot.
85
Substitution Substitution
Simen Juklerod is substituted for Joedrick Pupe.
79
Update Update
Oumar Diouf replaces Ryan Merlen.
77
Attempt Attempt
Ryotaro Ito takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Merlen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Merlen's left-footed shot is blocked.
63
Update Update
Kaito Matsuzawa comes on for Ilias Sebaoui.
60
Attempt Attempt
Rob Schoofs takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
49
Attempt Attempt
Rihito Yamamoto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Substitution Substitution
Rob Schoofs is substituted for Ousseynou Niang.
45
Attempt Attempt
Visar Musliu's header is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
39
Attempt Attempt
Visar Musliu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Shogo Taniguchi's left-footed shot is blocked.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Keisuke Goto receives a yellow card.
32
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Merlen attempts a header but misses the shot.
18
Update Update
Fedde Leysen replaces Anouar Ait El Hadj.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ryotaro Ito takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Merlen's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

Sint-Truiden's 2-1 triumph over Union Saint-Gilloise exemplifies how possession dominance and opportunistic play can overturn expectations. Trailing in perceived strength but leading in control at 77%, the hosts waited for the second-half red card to unlock the game after a 0-0 halftime stalemate. This significant deviation highlights their resilience, with efficiency holding steady amid chaos. Union's reduction to 10 men exposed vulnerabilities, enabling Sint-Truiden's clinical strikes. The result boosts home confidence while prompting reflection on visitor discipline, proving events like red cards can redefine narratives in tight contests.

Sint-Truiden vs Union Saint-Gilloise preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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