Sint-Truiden vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stayen Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
Sint-Truiden SIT
1 Winner 3
Union Saint-Gilloise USG
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Oumar Diouf - 79'
Goal
|
Goal
Besfort Zeneli - 56'
Ross Sykes - 27'
Christian Burgess - 23'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sint-Truiden 1–1 Union Saint-Gilloise. The match ended in a draw. Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. xG finished Sint-Truiden 1.5 – 2 Union Saint-Gilloise. Possession was 59%–41%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
2.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: 77 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 W
Antwerp Rank: 70 L
Dender Rank: 61 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 W
Westerlo Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
La Louvière Rank: 68 W
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
OH Leuven Rank: 67 D
Mechelen Rank: 71 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sint-Truiden
32.84%
Draw
28.75%
Away Union Saint-Gilloise
38.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.68
85.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sint-Truiden
Union Saint-Gilloise
Power Score
76.68
85.27
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
86
33

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Union Saint-Gilloise

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Union Saint-Gilloise
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.85
50.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
50.61
20.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sint-Truiden -2.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise +2.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Union Saint-Gilloise
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sint-Truiden
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sint-Truiden
Union Saint-Gilloise
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sint-Truiden SIT Home
11 matches
Union Saint-Gilloise USG Away
Match Record
2
Wins
7
2
Draws
2
7
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
10
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
R. Vanwesemael
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
S. Taniguchi
Japan
5 (C) S. Taniguchi
L. Mbe Soh
France
4 L. Mbe Soh
T. Hata
Japan
3 T. Hata
R. Yamamoto
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
A. Sissako
Substitution
France
8 A. Sissako
R. Ito
Substitution
Japan
13 R. Ito
A. Muja
Substitution
Albania
7 A. Muja
K. Goto
Substitution
Japan
42 K. Goto
I. Sebaoui
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
Pitch
V. Chambaere
Belgium
1 V. Chambaere
F. Leysen
Belgium
48 F. Leysen
C. Burgess
England
16 (C) C. Burgess
R. Sykes
England
26 R. Sykes
G. da Silva Carvalho
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Carvalho
A. Zorgane
Algeria
8 A. Zorgane
R. Schoofs
Belgium
17 R. Schoofs
A. Khalaili
Israel
25 A. Khalaili
A. El Hadj
Belgium
10 A. El Hadj
M. Biondic
Substitution
Germany
9 M. Biondic
B. Zeneli
Substitution
Kosovo
23 B. Zeneli

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stayen Stadion
Capacity :
14600
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Geerolf
Massimiliano Ledda
Jasper Vergoote
Michele Seeldraeyers

Statistics

Possession
SIT
55%
USG
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 6
9 Shots 18
66 Dangerous attacks 55
59 Possession 41
5 Corners 5
4 Free kicks 2

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 7
22 Throwins 24
70 Ball Safe 69
17 Dribble Attempts 18
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
10 Successful Dribbles 9
9 Successful Headers 9
0 Assists 3
5 Goal Attempts 11
4 Substitutions 3
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

103 Attacks 104
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

5 Key Passes 18
87 Successful Passes Percentage 83
636 Passes 435
50 Long Passes 55
551 Successful Passes 361
25 Successful Long Passes 29
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

9 Interceptions 17
5 Saves 1
20 Tackles 18

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

2 Fouls 4
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
7.22
3
Taiga Hata
Taiga Hata Defender
6.32
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh Defender
6.73
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi (C) Defender
6.72
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
7.44
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
6.53
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
6.78
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender75'
6.78
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
6.25
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker62'
6.68
7
Arbnor Muja
Arbnor Muja Attacker
6.55
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen
Midfielder62'
6.68
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Attacker
6.07
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker
6.49
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker73'
7.46
Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

1
Vic Chambaere
Vic Chambaere Goalkeeper
6.72
16
Christian Burgess
Christian Burgess (C) Defender
7.95
26
Ross Sykes
Ross Sykes Defender
7.68
48
Fedde Leysen
Fedde Leysen Defender
6.46
8
Adem Zorgane
Adem Zorgane Midfielder
6.86
11
Guilherme Smith
Guilherme Smith Midfielder
7.28
27
Louis Patris
Louis Patris
Defender75'
6.25
17
Rob Schoofs
Rob Schoofs Midfielder
6.96
25
Anan Khalaili
Anan Khalaili Midfielder
7.54
9
Mateo Biondic
Mateo Biondic Attacker
6.69
7
Mohammed Fuseini
Mohammed Fuseini
Attacker65'
6.19
10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
7.54
23
Besfort Zeneli
Besfort Zeneli Attacker
9.41
14
Ivan Pavlić
Ivan Pavlić
Midfielder75'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oumar Diouf
Header / 4th Goal
79'
Event
Simen Juklerød → Abdoulaye Sissako
5th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Ivan Pavlić → Besfort Zeneli
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Louis Patris → Guilherme Smith
6th Substitution
Event
Oumar Diouf → Keisuke Goto
4th Substitution
73'
65'
Event
Mohammed Fuseini → Mateo Biondic
3rd Substitution
Event
Ryan Merlen → Arbnor Muja
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Ryotaro Ito
1st Substitution
62'
56'
Event
Besfort Zeneli
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Keisuke Goto
Var
50'
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Ross Sykes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Christian Burgess
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Union Saint-Gilloise exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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