Sint-Truiden vs Gent Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stayen Stadion Sat, 16 May - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Sint-Truiden SIT
1 – 1
Gent GNT
Full Time Sat, 16 May 6:45 PM
Round 8 Championship Round
Loïc Mbe Soh - 69'
Goal
|
Goal
Wilfried Kanga - 45'

CONTEXT

Sint-Truiden faced Gent in a league encounter that concluded with a 1-1 scoreline. The visitors led 0-1 at the interval after capitalizing on an early opportunity. Sint-Truiden controlled 64 percent of possession and generated an expected goals total of 2.02 compared to Gent's 1.4. Despite the statistical edge in chance creation the home side managed only one goal. The match featured no red cards and no major second-half adjustments from either team. Sint-Truiden as the stronger side on paper failed to translate dominance into a victory. The final outcome left both teams with a shared point after a balanced but ultimately inconclusive contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sint-Truiden showed a significant 74.5 percent deviation from pre-match expectations as the stronger side.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: Sint-Truiden posted 2.02 expected goals against Gent's 1.4 yet the result stayed inconsistent with those figures.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw did not align with pre-match market projections for the stronger home team.
  • xG expectations: Sint-Truiden carried higher xG expectations but converted chances at a rate below the projected output.
  • Event impact: Gent's first-half goal proved decisive in shaping the eventual 1-1 draw.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics experienced zero distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Visser

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Wyns

1st Assistant

Belgium

T. Nijssen

2nd Assistant

Belgium

S. Bourdeaud'hui

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.61
Yellow cards / match 3.13
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.3
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Gent R. Demil
R. Demil
1.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: 86 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 W
Mechelen Rank: 69 W
Anderlecht Rank: 72 W
Gent Rank: 71 D
Club Brugge Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: 73 D
Mechelen Rank: 69 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 D
Anderlecht Rank: 72 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 10 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sint-Truiden
44.83%
Draw
25.53%
Away Gent
29.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sint-Truiden
+39.92%
Draw
-65.11%
Gent
+25.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.52
71.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sint-Truiden
Gent
Power Score
77.52
71.28
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
80
168

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Gent — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sint-Truiden Gent

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gent

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gent
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.84
37.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.08
29.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sint-Truiden -0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Gent +0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Gent
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sint-Truiden
vs
Gent
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sint-Truiden Gent
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Gent
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sint-Truiden
Gent
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sint-Truiden
vs
Gent
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sint-Truiden Gent
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sint-Truiden 0.26
Gent 0.44
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Gent
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sint-Truiden 0.04
Gent 0.02
Sint-Truiden
Gent
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIT had peak pressure around 54'.
  • SIT started the game with stronger pressure.
SIT Pressure GNT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIT reached the top pressure at 54' (83.28).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sint-Truiden SIT Home
39 matches
Gent GNT Away
Match Record
11
Wins
18
10
Draws
10
18
Losses
11
Goals
43
Goals Scored
64
64
Goals Conceded
43
-21
Goal Difference
+21

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
R. Vanwesemael
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
L. Mbe Soh
France
4 L. Mbe Soh
V. Musliu
Macedonia
26 (C) V. Musliu
J. Pupe
Substitution
Belgium
23 J. Pupe
R. Merlen
France
14 R. Merlen
A. Sissako
France
8 A. Sissako
R. Yamamoto
Substitution
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
R. Ito
Substitution
Japan
13 R. Ito
I. Sebaoui
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
K. Goto
Substitution
Japan
42 K. Goto
Pitch
D. Roef
Belgium
33 (C) D. Roef
T. Alves Araújo
Portugal
20 T. Alves Araújo
D. Hashioka
Japan
4 D. Hashioka
L. da Silva Lopes
Portugal
22 L. da Silva Lopes
J. Duverne
Haiti
29 J. Duverne
M. Delorge-Knieper
Substitution
Belgium
17 M. Delorge-Knieper
T. De Vlieger
Belgium
27 T. De Vlieger
M. Sonko
Substitution
Sweden
11 M. Sonko
H. Hong
Substitution
South Korea
24 H. Hong
M. Skóraś
Poland
8 M. Skóraś
A. Kanga
France
7 A. Kanga

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 8 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stayen Stadion
Capacity :
14600
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lawrence Visser
Ruben Wyns
Thibaud Nijssen
Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Statistics

Possession
SIT
62%
GNT
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 1
62 Dangerous attacks 27
64 Possession 36
3 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 3
30 Dribble Attempts 9
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
22 Throwins 16
12 Successful Dribbles 3
0 Assists 1
4 Goal Kicks 11
11 Goal Attempts 5
63 Ball Safe 74
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

131 Attacks 72
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
636 Passes 355
71 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
69 Long Passes 58
49 Successful Long Passes 24
562 Successful Passes 285
16 Key Passes 6

Defensive

40 Duels Won 45
0 Saves 3
13 Tackles 24
6 Interceptions 6

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3
15 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
6.52
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh Defender
7.68
23
Joedrick Pupe
Joedrick Pupe Defender
7.02
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker61'
7.1
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu (C) Defender
6.9
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
7.43
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7.37
99
Shion Shinkawa
Shion Shinkawa
Attacker81'
6.54
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
6.31
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
7.01
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender61'
6.23
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
6.57
7
Arbnor Muja
Arbnor Muja
Attacker12'
6.54
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen Midfielder
6.97
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker
6.72
3
Taiga Hata
Taiga Hata
Defender81'
6.42
Referee : Lawrence Visser

Starting XI ▼

33
Davy Roef
Davy Roef (C) Goalkeeper
6.64
4
Daiki Hashioka
Daiki Hashioka Defender
6.79
20
Tiago Araújo
Tiago Araújo Defender
6.51
22
Leonardo Lopes
Leonardo Lopes Defender
6.71
29
Jean-Kévin Duverne
Jean-Kévin Duverne Defender
6.55
8
Michal Skoras
Michal Skoras Midfielder
7.37
11
Momodou Lamin Sonko
Momodou Lamin Sonko Midfielder
6.52
21
Max Dean
Max Dean
Attacker46'
6.42
17
Mathias Delorge
Mathias Delorge Midfielder
7.8
10
Aimé Omgba
Aimé Omgba
Midfielder86'
24
Hyun-seok Hong
Hyun-seok Hong Midfielder
6.34
37
Abdelkahar Kadri
Abdelkahar Kadri
Midfielder61'
6.42
27
Tibe De Vlieger
Tibe De Vlieger Midfielder
7.32
7
Wilfried Kanga
Wilfried Kanga Attacker
7.04

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Aimé Omgba → Mathias Delorge
8th Substitution
Event
Shion Shinkawa → Rihito Yamamoto
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Taiga Hata → Keisuke Goto
6th Substitution
81'
73'
Event
Daiki Hashioka
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Loïc Mbe Soh
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
69'
Event
Simen Juklerød → Ilias Sebaoui
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Joedrick Pupe
5th Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Abdelkahar Kadri → Hyun-seok Hong
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Max Dean → Momodou Lamin Sonko
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Wilfried Kanga
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
Event
Wilfried Kanga
Goal disallowed
Event
Arbnor Muja → Ryotaro Ito
1st Substitution
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Michal Skoras takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
90
Attempt Attempt
Wilfried Kanga Aka takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Shion Shinkawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Daiki Hashioka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Aime Omgba comes on for Mathias Delorge-Knieper.
84
Attempt Attempt
Kaito Matsuzawa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Taiga Hata comes on for Keisuke Goto.
81
Update Update
Shion Shinkawa is on, and Rihito Yamamoto is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Merlen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Loic Mbe Soh scores with a left-footed shot.
69
Attempt Attempt
Kaito Matsuzawa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Michal Skoras takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Update Update
Abdelkahar Kadri replaces Hong Hyun Seok.
61
Update Update
Simen Juklerod is on, and Ilias Sebaoui is off.
61
Update Update
Kaito Matsuzawa is on, and Joedrick Pupe is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Rihito Yamamoto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Rihito Yamamoto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Max Dean takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
46
Substitution Substitution
Max Dean is substituted for Momodou Sonko.
46
Attempt Attempt
Keisuke Goto takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Wilfried Kanga Aka with his right foot results in a goal.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wilfried Kanga scores, making it 0-1.
44
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Merlen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Arbnor Muja takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Keisuke Goto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Keisuke Goto takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Michal Skoras takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ilias Sebaoui takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Wilfried Kanga Aka scores with a right-footed shot.
16
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Wilfried Kanga Aka.
13
Attempt Attempt
Daiki Hashioka takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Wilfried Kanga Aka's shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Wilfried Kanga Aka takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
Update Update
Arbnor Muja comes on for Ryotaro Ito.
7
Attempt Attempt
Wilfried Kanga Aka takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Joedrick Pupe's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw reflected a contest where Sint-Truiden held clear advantages in possession and expected goals but could not overcome an early deficit. Gent defended effectively after taking the lead and limited further damage despite lower overall control. The absence of red cards kept the game at eleven versus eleven allowing both sides to maintain tactical structures. Sint-Truiden's inability to align results with statistical dominance highlighted conversion challenges in the final third. Gent secured a valuable point on the road through disciplined organization. The outcome leaves questions about finishing efficiency for the home side while confirming defensive resilience from the visitors. Overall the match demonstrated how early events can offset later territorial superiority in a tightly contested draw.

Sint-Truiden vs Gent preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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