Sint-Truiden vs Anderlecht Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stayen Stadion Thu, 23 Apr - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Sint-Truiden SIT
2 Winner 0
Anderlecht ADL
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 4 Championship Round
Ryan Merlen - 90+2'
Keisuke Goto - 75'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Sint-Truiden claimed a 2-0 home win against Anderlecht, overcoming the stronger visitors in a tightly contested Belgian Pro League match. The first half ended 0-0, with Sint-Truiden holding 54% possession compared to Anderlecht's 46%. The home side broke the deadlock in the second half, scoring twice without reply to secure the victory. This result represents an upset, as Anderlecht entered as favorites. Structural deviation was minimal at 5.3% in favor of Sint-Truiden, and market alignment was maintained. Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments or knockout implications. Sint-Truiden's defensive solidity and clinical finishing proved decisive, frustrating Anderlecht's attacks throughout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sint-Truiden exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.3%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing xG data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was true for the outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments impacted the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Bourdeaud'hui

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Gonnissen

1st Assistant

J. Van Dyck

2nd Assistant

B. Verbeke

4th Official

Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Anderlecht J. Taravel
J. Taravel
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Genk Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: W
Gent Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: L
Mechelen Rank: L
Club Brugge Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 6 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sint-Truiden
94.72%
Draw
5.09%
Away Anderlecht
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.23
25.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sint-Truiden
Anderlecht
Power Score
19.23
25.13
League Position
4
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sint-Truiden Anderlecht

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Anderlecht
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.17
45.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.87
34.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sint-Truiden -1.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Anderlecht +1.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Anderlecht
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Anderlecht
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sint-Truiden Anderlecht
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Anderlecht
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Anderlecht
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sint-Truiden
vs
Anderlecht
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sint-Truiden Anderlecht
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sint-Truiden 0.33
Anderlecht 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Anderlecht
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sint-Truiden 0.00
Anderlecht 0.04
Sint-Truiden
Anderlecht
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ADL had peak pressure around 61'.
  • SIT started the game with stronger pressure.
SIT Pressure ADL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ADL reached the top pressure at 61' (83.25).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sint-Truiden SIT Home
35 matches
Anderlecht ADL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
22
6
Draws
6
22
Losses
7
Goals
38
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
38
-32
Goal Difference
+32

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:03:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
R. Vanwesemael
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
S. Taniguchi
Japan
5 S. Taniguchi
V. Musliu
Macedonia
26 V. Musliu
J. Pupe
Substitution
Belgium
23 J. Pupe
R. Yamamoto
Substitution
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
A. Sissako
France
8 A. Sissako
I. Sebaoui
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
R. Ito
Japan
13 R. Ito
K. Matsuzawa
Substitution
Japan
38 K. Matsuzawa
K. Goto
Substitution
Japan
42 K. Goto
Pitch
C. Coosemans
Belgium
26 C. Coosemans
L. Augustinsson
Sweden
6 L. Augustinsson
M. Diarra
Mali
93 M. Diarra
K. Sardella
Belgium
54 K. Sardella
A. Maamar
Substitution
Belgium
79 A. Maamar
E. Llansana
Substitution
Netherlands
24 E. Llansana
N. Saliba
Canada
13 N. Saliba
T. Degreef
Belgium
83 T. Degreef
Y. Verschaeren
Substitution
Belgium
10 Y. Verschaeren
M. Cvetković
Serbia
9 M. Cvetković
A. Bertaccini
Substitution
Belgium
91 A. Bertaccini

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 4 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stayen Stadion
Capacity :
14600
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simon Bourdeaud'hui
Ben Gonnissen
Jonas Van Dyck
Bert Verbeke

Statistics

Possession
SIT
55%
ADL
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 9
49 Dangerous attacks 42
54 Possession 46
4 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

20 Throwins 32
12 Goal Kicks 6
7 Successful Dribbles 2
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17
17 Dribble Attempts 12
1 Hit Woodwork 1
13 Goal Attempts 11
1 Injuries 3
65 Ball Safe 62
4 Substitutions 4
2 Assists 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 95
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

59 Long Passes 54
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
404 Successful Passes 310
483 Passes 400
36 Successful Long Passes 18
13 Key Passes 12
84 Successful Passes Percentage 78

Defensive

21 Tackles 21
5 Saves 5
15 Interceptions 12
50 Duels Won 40

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
12 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

8 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
6.98
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
6.92
23
Joedrick Pupe
Joedrick Pupe Defender
6.6
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender66'
6.73
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu Defender
7.02
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
6.75
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7.18
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen
Midfielder71'
6.59
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
6.95
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
6.87
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
7.4
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa Midfielder
6.68
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker85'
6.73
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker
6.9
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh
Defender85'
7.05
Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

26
Colin Coosemans
Colin Coosemans Goalkeeper
6.85
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Ludwig Augustinsson Defender
6.95
54
Killian Sardella
Killian Sardella Defender
6.76
79
Ali Maamar
Ali Maamar Defender
6.59
7
Ilay Camara
Ilay Camara
Defender70'
6.67
93
Moussa Diarra
Moussa Diarra Defender
6.64
9
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Mihajlo Cvetkovic Midfielder
6.79
10
Yari Verschaeren
Yari Verschaeren Midfielder
6.79
11
Thorgan Hazard
Thorgan Hazard
Midfielder70'
7.38
13
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Nathan-Dylan Saliba Midfielder
6.91
24
Enric Llansana
Enric Llansana Midfielder
6.83
61
Joshua Nga Kana
Joshua Nga Kana
Midfielder85'
6.38
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef Midfielder
6.61
91
Adriano Bertaccini
Adriano Bertaccini Attacker
8.3
77
Coba da Costa
Coba da Costa
Attacker80'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ryan Merlen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
Event
Loïc Mbe Soh → Keisuke Goto
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Oumar Diouf → Kaito Matsuzawa
6th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Joshua Nga Kana → Enric Llansana
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Coba da Costa → Adriano Bertaccini
5th Substitution
Event
Keisuke Goto
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
75'
Event
Ryan Merlen → Rihito Yamamoto
4th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Thorgan Hazard → Yari Verschaeren
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Ilay Camara → Ali Maamar
2nd Substitution
Event
Simen Juklerød → Joedrick Pupe
1st Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Moussa Diarra
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
9'
Event
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Sint-Truiden's 2-0 triumph over Anderlecht underscores their resilience at home, turning the tide after a goalless first half. With superior possession and no concessions, they capitalized on second-half opportunities against the stronger side. The minimal deviation and aligned market outcome highlight a performance true to form, free from disruptive events. This victory boosts Sint-Truiden's standing while posing questions for Anderlecht's consistency. Defensive discipline and timely goals defined the win, setting a positive tone for future fixtures.

Sint-Truiden vs Anderlecht preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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