Sigma Olomouc vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 M05STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match has officially finished in a 0-0 draw between Sigma Olomouc and FSV Mainz 05. Following a goalless first half, neither side was able to find a breakthrough before the final whistle. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, negatively impacting the heavily favored FSV Mainz 05. Before kickoff, Mainz held a 54% market probability of winning, compared to just a 26.8% chance for a draw and 19.1% for a Sigma Olomouc victory. As a result, the final scoreline did not align with the pre-match market projections. Sigma Olomouc managed to control the ball slightly more, finishing with 52
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: FSV Mainz 05 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
M. Al Emara
Other match officials
T. Valjakka
1st Assistant
M. Lamppu
2nd Assistant
P. Simani
4th Official


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Sigma Olomouc
FSV Mainz 05Team Power Ranking
i
49.58
55.39
Sigma Olomouc
FSV Mainz 05Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Sigma Olomouc
FSV Mainz 05

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Sigma Olomouc ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Sigma Olomouc ⚠ Proxy
Sigma Olomouc FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc FSV Mainz 05
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-03-13T01:03:50+00:00
STARTING XI
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Sigma OlomoucManager ▼

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FSV Mainz 05Manager ▼

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Events
CONCLUSION
Sigma Olomouc vs FSV Mainz 05 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Match Commentary