Sheffield United vs Swansea City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Bramall Lane Fri, 3 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Sheffield United SHU
3 – 3
Swansea City SWA
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
Tom Cannon - 64'
Harrison Burrows - 53'
Gustavo Hamer - 16'
Goal
|
Goal
Ji-sung Eom - 82'
Adam Idah - 75'
Zan Vipotnik - 24' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Sheffield United and Swansea City has finished in a 3-3 draw. This full-time result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the heavily favored home side. Sheffield United entered the contest with a dominant 56.1% implied probability of victory, compared to just a 24.6% chance for a draw and a 19.4% chance for a Swansea win. Ultimately, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market. The teams were evenly matched at the break, heading into half-time tied at 1-1. Swansea City slightly edged the possession battle on the road, controlling 52% of the ball compared to Sheffield United's 48%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the high-scoring draw aligned with the underlying chance creation. Despite the surprising final score, offensive efficiency shifted in line with the overall flow of the match. Furthermore, the fixture was completed without any severe disciplinary interventions. No red cards were issued to either team, ensuring that Swansea's ability to secure a valuable draw against the stronger Sheffield United side was entirely unaffected by dismissals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sheffield United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Whitestone

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Lewis

1st Assistant

J. Bickerdike

2nd Assistant

T. Kirk

4th Official

Sheffield United C. Wilder
C. Wilder
VS
Swansea City V. Emanuel Soares Matos
V. Emanuel Soares Matos
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wrexham Rank: 73 L
Birmingham City Rank: 70 D
Norwich City Rank: 69 L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
Coventry City Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coventry City Rank: 76 L
Wrexham Rank: 73 L
Portsmouth Rank: 67 W
Stoke City Rank: 68 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 L
Preston North End Rank: 66 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 2 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sheffield United
56.07%
Draw
24.55%
Away Swansea City
19.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.5
67.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sheffield United
Swansea City
Power Score
70.5
67.62
League Position
17
16
Global Rank
183
253

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sheffield United — Opponent-weighted form score
Swansea City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sheffield United Swansea City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sheffield United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Swansea City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sheffield United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.56
18.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.37
31.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sheffield United +1.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Swansea City -1.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sheffield United
Swansea City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sheffield United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sheffield United Swansea City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sheffield United Swansea City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sheffield United
Swansea City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sheffield United
vs
Swansea City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sheffield United Swansea City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sheffield United 0.30
Swansea City 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sheffield United Swansea City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sheffield United 0.10
Swansea City 0.07
Sheffield United
Swansea City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sheffield United SHU Home
16 matches
Swansea City SWA Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
8
Goals
18
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
18
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:02:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Davies
Wales
17 A. Davies
F. Seriki
England
38 F. Seriki
J. Tanganga
England
2 J. Tanganga
T. Bindon
New Zealand
6 T. Bindon
H. Burrows
England
14 H. Burrows
S. Peck
Substitution
England
42 S. Peck
J. Riedewald
Substitution
Netherlands
44 J. Riedewald
A. Brookes
Substitution
England
11 A. Brookes
C. O'Hare
England
10 C. O'Hare
G. Hamer
Substitution
Netherlands
8 G. Hamer
P. Bamford
England
45 P. Bamford
Pitch
L. Vigouroux
Chile
22 L. Vigouroux
J. Tymon
England
14 J. Tymon
C. Burgess
Australia
15 C. Burgess
B. Cabango
Wales
5 B. Cabango
J. Ward
England
25 J. Ward
M. Stamenic
Substitution
New Zealand
6 M. Stamenic
G. Franco
Portugal
17 G. Franco
M. Widell
Substitution
Sweden
7 M. Widell
M. Junior Yalcouyé
Substitution
Mali
8 M. Junior Yalcouyé
R. Pereira Martins
Substitution
Brazil
35 R. Pereira Martins
Ž. Vipotnik
Substitution
Slovenia
9 Ž. Vipotnik

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 03, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Bramall Lane
Capacity :
32702
Attendance :
26457
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Samuel Lewis
Johnathon Bickerdike
Thomas Kirk
Dean Whitestone

Statistics

Possession
SHU
50%
SWA
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 0
43 Dangerous attacks 31
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
79 Ball Safe 79
34 Throwins 26
14 Successful Headers 8
10 Goal Attempts 5
14 Dribble Attempts 10
0 Penalties 1
3 Goal Kicks 8
7 Successful Dribbles 4
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
2 Assists 1

Attacking

83 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 77
323 Successful Passes 353
420 Passes 461
65 Long Passes 66
17 Successful Long Passes 14
11 Key Passes 5
26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 21

Defensive

14 Tackles 18
46 Duels Won 43
10 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 1

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Dean Whitestone

Starting XI ▼

17
Adam Davies
Adam Davies Goalkeeper
2
Japhet Tanganga
Japhet Tanganga Defender
6
Tyler Bindon
Tyler Bindon Defender
14
Harrison Burrows
Harrison Burrows Defender
38
Femi Seriki
Femi Seriki Defender
8
Gustavo Hamer
Gustavo Hamer Midfielder
22
Tom Davies
Tom Davies
Midfielder80'
10
Callum O'Hare
Callum O'Hare Midfielder
11
Andre Brooks
Andre Brooks Midfielder
7
Tom Cannon
Tom Cannon
Attacker59'
42
Sydie Peck
Sydie Peck Midfielder
24
Tahith Chong
Tahith Chong
Midfielder87'
44
Jaïro Riedewald
Jaïro Riedewald Midfielder
48
Joe Rothwell
Joe Rothwell
Midfielder59'
45
Patrick Bamford
Patrick Bamford Attacker
Referee : Dean Whitestone

Starting XI ▼

22
Lawrence Vigouroux
Lawrence Vigouroux Goalkeeper
5
Ben Cabango
Ben Cabango Defender
14
Josh Tymon
Josh Tymon Defender
15
Cameron Burgess
Cameron Burgess Defender
25
Joel Ward
Joel Ward Defender
6
Marko Stamenić
Marko Stamenić Midfielder
4
Jay Fulton
Jay Fulton
Midfielder70'
7
Melker Widell
Melker Widell Midfielder
10
Ji-sung Eom
Ji-sung Eom
Attacker76'
8
Malick Yalcouyé
Malick Yalcouyé Midfielder
20
Liam Cullen
Liam Cullen
Attacker58'
17
Gonçalo Franco
Gonçalo Franco Midfielder
35
Ronald
Ronald Midfielder
18
Gustavo Nunes
Gustavo Nunes
Attacker58'
9
Zan Vipotnik
Zan Vipotnik Attacker
33
Adam Idah
Adam Idah
Attacker70'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Femi Seriki
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Tahith Chong → Sydie Peck
9th Substitution
87'
82'
Event
Ji-sung Eom
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Tom Davies → Gustavo Hamer
8th Substitution
80'
76'
Event
Ji-sung Eom → Melker Widell
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Adam Idah
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
70'
Event
Adam Idah → Zan Vipotnik
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Jay Fulton → Marko Stamenić
5th Substitution
Event
Tom Cannon
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Tom Cannon → Andre Brooks
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Joe Rothwell → Jaïro Riedewald
4th Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Liam Cullen → Malick Yalcouyé
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Gustavo Nunes → Ronald
2nd Substitution
Event
Harrison Burrows
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Malick Yalcouyé
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Zan Vipotnik
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Gustavo Hamer
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
16'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Femi Seriki of Sheffield United receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco of Swansea City is caught offside.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Japhet Tanganga against Sheffield United.
90
Update Update
Callum O'Hare of Sheffield United won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul by Gonçalo Franco for Swansea City.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Japhet Tanganga against Sheffield United.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 3-3 between Sheffield United and Swansea City.
89
Update Update
Offside called against Sheffield United. Tom Davies is offside.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield United: Tahith Chong replaces Sydie Peck.
85
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Japhet Tanganga from Sheffield United headed the ball from the center of the box but missed to the left. The assist was provided by Callum O'Hare with a cross.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Eom Ji-Sung of Swansea City.
84
Update Update
Thomas Cannon from Sheffield United won a free kick on the right wing.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Eom Ji-Sung scores for Swansea City with a right-footed shot from close range into the high center of the goal. The match is now 3-3, assisted by Adam Idah.
80
Update Update
Gustavo Nunes from Swansea City misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, sending the ball high over the goal. Jay Fulton provided the assist.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield United: Tom Davies replaces Gustavo Hamer.
78
Corner Corner
Swansea City wins a corner after Harrison Burrows concedes.
77
Update Update
Femi Seriki from Sheffield United won a free kick on the right wing.
77
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City commits a foul.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Eom Ji-Sung replaces Melker Widell.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Adam Idah scores for Swansea City with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner. The match score is now Sheffield United 3, Swansea City 2.
74
Update Update
Offside called against Swansea City. Adam Idah is offside.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Femi Seriki from Sheffield United took a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
72
Update Update
Offside called against Swansea City. Adam Idah is offside.
71
Update Update
Ben Cabango from Swansea City won a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Update Update
Joe Rothwell of Sheffield United won a free kick in defense.
71
Update Update
Fouled by Gustavo Nunes of Swansea City.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Patrick Bamford for Sheffield United.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Adam Idah replaces Zan Vipotnik.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Jay Fulton replaces Marko Stamenic.
69
Update Update
Zan Vipotnik's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Josh Tymon, who delivered the cross.
69
Update Update
Liam Cullen from Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
69
Update Update
Foul by Japhet Tanganga on Sheffield United.
68
Corner Corner
Swansea City wins a corner after Harrison Burrows concedes.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Hamer from Sheffield United had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Patrick Bamford, who headed the ball.
67
Corner Corner
Sheffield United wins a corner after Josh Tymon concedes.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Thomas Cannon scores for Sheffield United with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner. The match stands at Sheffield United 3, Swansea City 1.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Marko Stamenic of Swansea City.
63
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Hamer's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Patrick Bamford of Sheffield United heads the ball from the center of the box but it goes high. The assist was provided by Femi Seriki, also with a header.
63
Update Update
Sydie Peck from Sheffield United won a free kick in the attacking area.
62
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco of Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
62
Update Update
Gustavo Nunes from Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
60
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield United: Thomas Cannon replaces Andre Brooks.
60
Update Update
Harrison Burrows fouled a player from Sheffield United.
60
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield United: Joe Rothwell replaces Jairo Riedewald.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Gustavo Nunes replaces Ronald.
58
Corner Corner
Sheffield United wins a corner after Malick Yalcouyé concedes.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Liam Cullen replaces Malick Yalcouyé.
57
Corner Corner
Goal! Sheffield United lead 2-1 against Swansea City. Harrison Burrows scores for Sheffield United with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Gustavo Hamer after a fast break.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
New attacking attempt. Melker Widell of Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the left, but Adam Davies of Sheffield United saves it in the left corner.
52
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Malick Yalcouyé from Swansea City shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
52
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Harrison Burrows scores for Sheffield United with a left-footed shot from the center of the box after a quick counterattack. The score is now Sheffield United 2, Swansea City 1.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Tymon - Swansea City.
51
Update Update
Callum O'Hare of Sheffield United won a free kick on the right wing.
48
Update Update
Offside called against Sheffield United. Patrick Bamford is offside.
48
Update Update
Femi Seriki from Sheffield United committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Melker Widell from Swansea City won a free kick on the left wing.
46
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Sheffield United and Swansea City tied at 1-1.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malick Yalcouyé of Swansea City receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Patrick Bamford of Sheffield United takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Lawrence Vigouroux of Swansea City. The assist is credited to Sydie Peck.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins after the match is tied 1-1 between Sheffield United and Swansea City.
44
Update Update
Gustavo Hamer from Sheffield United misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high. The assist came from Patrick Bamford.
43
Update Update
Jairo Riedewald fouled a player from Sheffield United.
43
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
41
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Bamford's shot for Sheffield United is blocked. He attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Callum O'Hare.
41
Corner Corner
Sheffield United wins a corner after Ben Cabango concedes.
36
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved.
33
Update Update
Harrison Burrows is called offside for Sheffield United.
33
Corner Corner
Sheffield United win a corner after Melker Widell concedes.
32
Update Update
Femi Seriki from Sheffield United won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Melker Widell of Swansea City.
29
Update Update
Ben Cabango of Swansea City won a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Gustavo Hamer fouled a player from Sheffield United.
28
Attempt Attempt
Andre Brooks from Sheffield United has a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's blocked.
26
Update Update
Gustavo Hamer of Sheffield United won a free kick on the left wing.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Ronald against Swansea City.
26
Attempt Attempt
Harrison Burrows' shot for Sheffield United from the left side of the box is blocked. Sydie Peck provided the assist.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Zan Vipotnik scores for Swansea City with a right-footed shot into the right corner. The match remains 1-1.
23
Update Update
Swansea City awarded a penalty after Gonçalo Franco is fouled in the penalty area.
23
Update Update
Adam Davies of Sheffield United concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
20
Update Update
Malick Yalcouyé of Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Andre Brooks of Sheffield United.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sheffield United lead 1-0 against Swansea City. Gustavo Hamer scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner, assisted by Sydie Peck.
15
Update Update
Sheffield United is called offside. Andre Brooks is in an offside position.
10
Update Update
Foul by Marko Stamenic of Swansea City.
10
Update Update
Melker Widell from Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Malick Yalcouyé of Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Melker Widell from Swansea City won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Gustavo Hamer from Sheffield United misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from long distance on the left, sending the ball high and wide to the right from a free kick.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Jairo Riedewald of Sheffield United.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Joel Ward for Swansea City.
3
Update Update
Gustavo Hamer from Sheffield United won a free kick on the left wing.
2
Update Update
Harrison Burrows from Sheffield United won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Harrison Burrows of Sheffield United won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sheffield United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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