Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Wed, 13 May - 3:45 PM
Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
3 Winner 1
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar
Full Time Wed, 13 May 3:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Maryan Shved - 89'
Alaa Ghram - 14'
Luca Meirelles - 9'
Goal
|
Goal
Maksym Chekh - 45+3'

CONTEXT

Shakhtar Donetsk defeated Obolon'-Brovar 3-1 in a controlled performance. The home side took a 2-1 lead into halftime, showcasing early dominance with 58% possession throughout the match. As the stronger team, Shakhtar extended their advantage in the second half to secure the victory without facing any red cards. The scoreline reflected a significant structural deviation of 22% in Shakhtar's favor, highlighting performance gaps beyond basic metrics. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with pre-match evaluations. No major events disrupted the flow, allowing Shakhtar's superior quality to prevail. Possession stats underscored their control, preventing Obolon'-Brovar from mounting a serious challenge. This result solidifies Shakhtar's position with a straightforward win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shakhtar Donetsk recorded a significant structural deviation of 22% in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluated without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Nikolai Balakin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Salash

4th Official

Ukraine

O. Berkut

1st Assistant

Ukraine

S. Shlonchak

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.42
Yellow cards / match 3.09
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
VS
Obolon'-Brovar O. Antonenko
O. Antonenko
2.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.8
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 59 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 47 D
Kudrivka Rank: 41 D
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 L
SK Poltava Rank: 34 D
Veres Rank: 47 L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 54 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shakhtar Donetsk
78.01%
Draw
15.3%
Away Obolon'-Brovar
6.68%

Movement

Changes since opening
Shakhtar Donetsk
-15.99%
Draw
+10.25%
Obolon'-Brovar
+5.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.16
41.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
Obolon'-Brovar
Power Score
75.16
41.38
League Position
1
12
Global Rank
114
993

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shakhtar Donetsk Obolon'-Brovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Obolon'-Brovar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shakhtar Donetsk Obolon'-Brovar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Obolon'-Brovar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Obolon'-Brovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Obolon'-Brovar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shakhtar Donetsk Obolon'-Brovar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.00
Obolon'-Brovar 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Obolon'-Brovar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.00
Obolon'-Brovar 0.00
Shakhtar Donetsk
Obolon'-Brovar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHK had peak pressure around 100'.
  • SHK started the game with stronger pressure.
SHK Pressure Obolon'-Brovar Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHK reached the top pressure at 100' (56.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Home
5 matches
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Away
Match Record
5
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
5
Goals
16
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
16
+16
Goal Difference
-16

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T15:30:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
R. Bahlai
Ukraine
34 R. Bahlai
A. Ghram
Substitution
Tunisia
18 A. Ghram
E. Nazaryna
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
M. Matviyenko
Ukraine
22 M. Matviyenko
I. Azarovi
Georgia
16 I. Azarovi
O. Ocheretko
Ukraine
27 O. Ocheretko
P. Obah
Substitution
Nigeria
68 P. Obah
P. Delmino da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
10 P. Delmino da Silva
M. Gomes Claudino
Substitution
Brazil
6 M. Gomes Claudino
N. Martins da Silva
Brazil
11 N. Martins da Silva
L. Oliveira Meirelles
Substitution
49 L. Oliveira Meirelles
Pitch
D. Marchenko
Ukraine
31 D. Marchenko
P. Polehenko
Ukraine
28 P. Polehenko
D. Semenov
Ukraine
50 D. Semenov
T. Moroz
Ukraine
4 T. Moroz
O. Zhovtenko
Ukraine
44 O. Zhovtenko
I. Medynskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
13 I. Medynskyi
M. Tretyakov
Substitution
Ukraine
75 M. Tretyakov
M. Chekh
Ukraine
6 M. Chekh
R. Volokhatiy
Substitution
Ukraine
20 R. Volokhatiy
S. Sukhanov
Ukraine
55 S. Sukhanov
L. Taras
Substitution
Ukraine
90 L. Taras

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 03:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena L'viv
Capacity :
34915
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivan Salash
Oleksandr Berkut
Semen Shlonchak
Nikolai Balakin

Statistics

Possession
SHK
62%
Obolon'-Brovar
38%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Shots 0
65 Dangerous attacks 40
58 Possession 42
1 Corners 0
7 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 2

Attacking

111 Attacks 63

Discipline

5 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Nikolai Balakin

Starting XI ▼

34
Rostyslav Bahlai
Rostyslav Bahlai Goalkeeper
16
Irakli Azarovi
Irakli Azarovi Defender
6.48
18
Alaa Ghram
Alaa Ghram Defender
6.43
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar
Defender83'
6.67
22
Mykola Matvienko
Mykola Matvienko Defender
6.59
6
Marlon Gomes
Marlon Gomes Midfielder
6.54
14
Isaque
Isaque
Midfielder69'
6.73
10
Pedrinho
Pedrinho Midfielder
6.69
9
Maryan Shved
Maryan Shved
Midfielder80'
6.39
11
Newerton
Newerton Midfielder
6.72
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko Midfielder
6.56
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
6.78
49
Luca Meirelles
Luca Meirelles Attacker
6.63
24
Viktor Tsukanov
Viktor Tsukanov
Midfielder80'
6.77
68
Prosper Obah
Prosper Obah Attacker
6.63
19
Kauã Elias
Kauã Elias
Attacker69'
6.68
Referee : Nikolai Balakin

Starting XI ▼

31
Denys Marchenko
Denys Marchenko Goalkeeper
6.41
28
Pavlo Polegenko
Pavlo Polegenko Defender
6.15
44
O. Zhovtenko
O. Zhovtenko Defender
6.38
50
Dmytro Semenov
Dmytro Semenov Defender
6.37
4
Taras Moroz
Taras Moroz Midfielder
6.3
6
Maksym Chekh
Maksym Chekh Midfielder
6.42
13
Igor Medynskyi
Igor Medynskyi Midfielder
6.45
21
Kostyantyn Bychek
Kostyantyn Bychek
Attacker80'
6.43
20
R. Volokhatyi
R. Volokhatyi Midfielder
6.51
17
Ruslan Chernenko
Ruslan Chernenko
Midfielder90'
6.41
75
Maksym Tretyakov
Maksym Tretyakov Midfielder
6.86
91
Rostyslav Liashchuk
Rostyslav Liashchuk
Defender80'
55
Sergiy Sukhanov
Sergiy Sukhanov Attacker
6.53
90
Taras Lyakh
Taras Lyakh Attacker
6.66
99
Denys Teslyuk
Denys Teslyuk
Attacker62'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Ruslan Chernenko → R. Volokhatyi
9th Substitution
Event
Maryan Shved
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
Event
Irakli Azarovi
4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Newerton
3rd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Valeriy Bondar → Alaa Ghram
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Maryan Shved → Pedrinho
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Viktor Tsukanov → Luca Meirelles
7th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Kostyantyn Bychek → Igor Medynskyi
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Rostyslav Liashchuk → Maksym Tretyakov
5th Substitution
Event
Isaque → Marlon Gomes
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Kauã Elias → Prosper Obah
2nd Substitution
69'
62'
Event
Denys Teslyuk → Taras Lyakh
1st Substitution
48'
Event
Taras Lyakh
2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Maksym Chekh
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
22'
Event
Maksym Chekh
1st Yellowcard
Event
Alaa Ghram
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
14'
Event
Luca Meirelles
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

Match Commentary

87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Irakli Azarov receives a yellow card.
83
Update Update
Valerii Bondar replaces Alaa Ghram.
80
Update Update
Viktor Tsukanov comes on for Luca Meirelles.
80
Update Update
Rostyslav Lyashchuk replaces Maksym Tretyakov.
80
Update Update
Maryan Shved is on, and Pedro Victor Delmino da Silva, also known as Pedrinho, is off.
80
Update Update
Kostyantyn Bychek replaces Igor Medynsky.
69
Update Update
Isaque comes on for Marlon Santos da Silva Barbosa.
69
Update Update
Kaua Elias Nogueira comes on for Prosper Obah.
62
Update Update
Denys Teslyuk comes on for Taras Liakh.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Maksym Chekh scores, making it 2-1.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maksym Chekh receives a yellow card.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luca Meirelles scores to make it 1-0.

CONCLUSION

Shakhtar Donetsk's 3-1 win over Obolon'-Brovar demonstrated clear superiority, with 58% possession and a 2-1 halftime lead translating into a comfortable margin. The significant 22% structural deviation underscores how the score captured true performance disparities. Market alignment confirms the result matched anticipated hierarchies, while efficiency held steady without disruptions. Absence of red cards preserved match integrity, letting quality dictate the outcome. This performance reinforces Shakhtar's consistency against weaker opposition, providing a solid foundation moving forward.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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