Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana Thu, 19 Mar - 8:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
1 Winner 2
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Full Time Thu, 19 Mar 8:00 PM
Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 3
João Moutinho - 67' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Mikael Ishak - 45+7' (P), 13'
Alaa Ghram 90+7' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 Lech Poznań. The result saw Lech Poznań take the points. Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
  • Market: Shakhtar Donetsk 43% | Draw 25.8% | Lech Poznań 31.1%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: 68 W
Rijeka Rank: 71 D
Hamrun Spartans Rank: W
Shamrock Rovers Rank: W
Breidablik Rank: W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
KuPS Rank: W
KuPS Rank: W
Sigma Olomouc Rank: 59 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 79 D
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 76 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shakhtar Donetsk
43.04%
Draw
25.83%
Away Lech Poznań
31.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.34
68.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
Lech Poznań
Power Score
73.34
68.67
League Position
6
11
Global Rank
123
201

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shakhtar Donetsk Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.43
38.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.41
21.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shakhtar Donetsk -1.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań +1.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shakhtar Donetsk Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Home
1 matches
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-03-20T00:11:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
V. Tobias da Silva
Brazil
17 V. Tobias da Silva
A. Ghram
Tunisia
18 A. Ghram
M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
Brazil
4 M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
P. Azevedo Pereira
Brazil
13 P. Azevedo Pereira
E. Nazaryna
Substitution
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
Substitution
Brazil
30 A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
P. Delmino da Silva
Brazil
10 P. Delmino da Silva
O. Ocheretko
Ukraine
27 O. Ocheretko
N. Martins da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 N. Martins da Silva
K. Elias Nogueira
Substitution
Brazil
19 K. Elias Nogueira
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
J. Bragança Moutinho
Portugal
4 J. Bragança Moutinho
A. Milić
Croatia
16 A. Milić
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
R. Gumny
Substitution
Poland
20 R. Gumny
G. Thórdarson
Substitution
Iceland
23 G. Thórdarson
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
L. Palma Oseguera
Substitution
Honduras
77 L. Palma Oseguera
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
T. Ismaheel
Substitution
Nigeria
88 T. Ismaheel
M. Ishak
Sweden
9 M. Ishak

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 19, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 3
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Capacity :
33268
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rens Bluemink
Stefan de Groot
Marc Nagtegaal
Sander van der Eijk

Statistics

Possession
SHK
55%
Lech Poznań
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
10 Shots 15
40 Dangerous attacks 38
56 Possession 44
4 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
18 Throwins 23
24 Dribble Attempts 10
13 Successful Dribbles 3
8 Goal Kicks 12
0 Assists 1
90 Ball Safe 79
1 Injuries 0
10 Goal Attempts 13
0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

129 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 82
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
481 Passes 378
424 Successful Passes 310
56 Long Passes 57
28 Successful Long Passes 29
6 Key Passes 10

Defensive

13 Tackles 17
6 Interceptions 6
5 Saves 1
40 Duels Won 41

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 5
16 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

10 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Sander van der Eijk

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
4
Marlon
Marlon Defender
13
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique Defender
17
Vinícius Tobias
Vinícius Tobias Defender
18
Alaa Ghram
Alaa Ghram Defender
10
Pedrinho
Pedrinho Midfielder
11
Newerton
Newerton Midfielder
7
Eguinaldo
Eguinaldo
Midfielder85'
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko Midfielder
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
14
Isaque
Isaque
Midfielder62'
30
Alisson
Alisson Midfielder
37
Lucas Ferreira
Lucas Ferreira
Midfielder80'
19
Kauã Elias
Kauã Elias Attacker
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré
Attacker80'
Referee : Sander van der Eijk

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
4
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Defender
16
Antonio Milic
Antonio Milic Defender
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny Defender
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira
Defender46'
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
23
Gísli Thórdarson
Gísli Thórdarson Midfielder
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker83'
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma Midfielder
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson
Midfielder68'
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
Taofeek Ismaheel Midfielder
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh
Midfielder68'
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark
Midfielder77'
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alaa Ghram
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+7'
90+7'
Event
Mikael Ishak
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Arda Turan
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Eguinaldo → Newerton
9th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Gísli Thórdarson
8th Substitution
Event
Lucas Ferreira → Alisson
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Lassina Traoré → Kauã Elias
7th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Patrik Wålemark → Pablo Rodríguez
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Leo Bengtsson → Luis Palma
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Ali Gholizadeh → Taofeek Ismaheel
4th Substitution
Event
João Moutinho
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
67'
Event
Isaque → Yegor Nazaryna
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Alaa Ghram
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Joel Pereira → Robert Gumny
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+7'
Event
Mikael Ishak
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+5'
Event
Luis Palma
Penalty awarded
13'
Event
Mikael Ishak
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be five minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lech Poznań after Eguinaldo allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Mikael Ishak of Lech Poznan commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Isaque from Shakhtar Donetsk earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lech Poznań after Marlon's defensive play.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score being Shakhtar Donetsk 1, Lech Poznan 2.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Patrik Wålemark from Lech Poznań fired a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it went over the bar. The chance was set up by a headed assist from João Moutinho.
90
Update Update
The game has concluded with Shakhtar Donetsk falling to Lech Poznan, with a final score of 1-2.
89
Attempt Attempt
Eguinaldo from Shakhtar Donetsk tries to take a shot with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area, but the attempt is blocked. He received assistance from Lucas Ferreira.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Shakhtar Donetsk: Eguinaldo comes on to take the place of Newerton.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Newerton from Shakhtar Donetsk takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it goes just wide to the left.
83
Update Update
Patrik Wålemark from Lech Poznan commits a foul.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lech Poznan: Yannick Agnero comes on to take the place of Gísli Thórdarson.
83
Update Update
Oleh Ocheretko from Shakhtar Donetsk earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
82
Update Update
Wojciech Monka of Lech Poznań earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
82
Update Update
Lassina Traoré commits a foul for Shakhtar Donetsk.
82
Update Update
Wojciech Monka from Lech Poznań earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
81
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Leo Bengtsson from Lech Poznan took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area after a corner kick.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Shakhtar Donetsk: Lucas Ferreira comes on to take the place of Alisson Santana.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Shakhtar Donetsk: Lassina Traoré comes on to take the place of Kauã Elias.
77
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Antoni Kozubal from Lech Poznan takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes wide to the right after a corner kick.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lech Poznan: Patrik Wålemark comes on to take the place of Pablo Rodríguez.
77
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Mikael Ishak from Lech Poznan fired a left-footed shot from the center of the box but it went wide to the left. The attempt was set up by Antoni Kozubal after a corner kick.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lech Poznań after Isaque allowed the ball to go out.
75
Corner Corner
A shot on goal was blocked. Ali Gholizadeh from Lech Poznan took a left-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, but Dmytro Riznyk of Shakhtar Donetsk made a save, stopping the ball in the bottom left corner. The chance was set up by Joel Pereira.
74
Attempt Attempt
The shot is blocked. Newerton of Shakhtar Donetsk takes a right-footed attempt from the left side of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
70
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Alisson Santana from Shakhtar Donetsk took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The attempt was set up by Pedrinho.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lech Poznan: Ali Gholizadeh comes on to take the place of Taofeek Ismaheel.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lech Poznan: Leo Bengtsson comes on to take the place of Luis Palma.
67
Update Update
An unfortunate own goal by João Moutinho of Lech Poznan has put Shakhtar Donetsk at a score of 1, while Lech Poznan leads with 2.
64
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
63
Update Update
Pablo Rodríguez from Lech Poznan earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
63
Update Update
Oleh Ocheretko from Shakhtar Donetsk commits a foul.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Yehor Nazaryna from Shakhtar Donetsk took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails just over the bar. The assist came from Pedro Henrique.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Shakhtar Donetsk: Isaque comes on to take the place of Yehor Nazaryna.
58
Update Update
Offside call against Lech Poznan. Pablo Rodríguez has been flagged for being in an offside position.
58
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Taofeek Ismaheel from Lech Poznan takes a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
55
Update Update
Pablo Rodríguez from Lech Poznan earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
55
Update Update
Alisson Santana commits a foul for Shakhtar Donetsk.
53
Update Update
Yehor Nazaryna from Shakhtar Donetsk commits a handball.
50
Update Update
Oleh Ocheretko from Shakhtar Donetsk earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
50
Update Update
Oleh Ocheretko from Shakhtar Donetsk is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
49
Update Update
Alaa Ghram of Shakhtar Donetsk commits a foul.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alaa Ghram from Shakhtar Donetsk receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
49
Update Update
Alaa Ghram from Shakhtar Donetsk commits a foul.
47
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Mikael Ishak from Lech Poznan tries a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal is blocked. Antoni Kozubal from Lech Poznan takes a left-footed strike from the middle of the box, but Dmytro Riznyk of Shakhtar Donetsk makes a save right in the center of the goal.
47
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal was thwarted. Joel Pereira from Lech Poznan took a right-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, but Dmytro Riznyk of Shakhtar Donetsk made a save right in the middle of the goal, with the assist coming from Mikael Ishak.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Antoni Kozubal from Lech Poznan took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left.
45
Update Update
The attempt was thwarted. Robert Gumny from Lech Poznan had a header from the middle of the penalty area that was blocked. He received assistance from Luis Palma, who delivered a cross.
45
Update Update
VAR Review: Possible Penalty for Lech Poznan.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
Mikael Ishak from Lech Poznan earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
45
Update Update
Pedrinho commits a foul for Shakhtar Donetsk.
45
Corner Corner
The shot was blocked. Gísli Thórdarson from Lech Poznan took a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but Dmytro Riznyk from Shakhtar Donetsk made a great save, diving to the top left corner. The attempt was set up by Antoni Kozubal.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Oleh Ocheretko from Shakhtar Donetsk.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lech Poznan after Dmytro Riznyk allowed the ball to go out.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lech Poznań after Kauã Elias allowed the ball to go out.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Shakhtar Donetsk 0, Lech Poznan 2. Mikael Ishak from Lech Poznan successfully scores the penalty, placing a right-footed shot into the bottom left corner.
45
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Lech Poznan.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Shakhtar Donetsk 0, Lech Poznan 2.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lech Poznan: Joel Pereira comes on to take the place of Robert Gumny.
45
Update Update
The second half has kicked off with the score at Shakhtar Donetsk 0, Lech Poznan 2.
44
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lech Poznań after Kauã Elias allowed the ball to go out of play.
43
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Shakhtar Donetsk after Robert Gumny allowed the ball to go out.
36
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
35
Update Update
Match interruption - Shakhtar Donetsk.
32
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Alisson Santana from Shakhtar Donetsk took a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box after a corner kick, but it didn't hit the target.
32
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Shakhtar Donetsk after Antonio Milic allowed the ball to go out.
32
Corner Corner
Shakhtar Donetsk has been awarded a corner kick after Bartosz Mrozek allowed the ball to go out of play.
31
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Shakhtar Donetsk after João Moutinho allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
Antoni Kozubal from Lech Poznan commits a foul.
29
Update Update
Pedro Henrique from Shakhtar Donetsk earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
28
Update Update
Yehor Nazaryna from Shakhtar Donetsk commits a foul.
28
Update Update
Pablo Rodríguez from Lech Poznan earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Yehor Nazaryna from Shakhtar Donetsk takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and wide to the right following a direct free kick.
26
Update Update
Pablo Rodríguez from Lech Poznan commits a foul.
26
Update Update
Alisson Santana from Shakhtar Donetsk has been awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
24
Update Update
Lech Poznan is flagged for offside as Mikael Ishak finds himself in an illegal position.
23
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected! Newerton from Shakhtar Donetsk tried a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Pedrinho.
20
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. João Moutinho of Lech Poznan takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Gísli Thórdarson from Lech Poznan took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Pablo Rodríguez.
18
Update Update
Pablo Rodríguez from Lech Poznan earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
18
Update Update
Oleh Ocheretko from Shakhtar Donetsk commits a foul.
16
Update Update
João Moutinho commits a foul for Lech Poznan.
16
Update Update
Alisson Santana from Shakhtar Donetsk earns a free kick on the right flank.
15
Update Update
Taofeek Ismaheel from Lech Poznan commits a foul.
15
Update Update
Newerton has been awarded a free kick in their own half against Shakhtar Donetsk.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lech Poznan takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Shakhtar Donetsk. Mikael Ishak scores with a header from the middle of the penalty area.
6
Update Update
Mikael Ishak from Lech Poznan earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
6
Update Update
Yehor Nazaryna from Shakhtar Donetsk commits a foul.
2
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Pedro Henrique from Shakhtar Donetsk took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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