Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Thu, 21 May - 12:30 PM
Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
0 Winner 1
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka
Full Time Thu, 21 May 12:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Ardit Tahiri - 49'

CONTEXT

In the post-match analysis of the fixture between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka, the final result stood at 0-1 with the away side claiming victory. The halftime score was 0-0 as indicated by the even status at the break. Shakhtar maintained a possession advantage of 65 percent compared to 35 percent for Kolos yet could not find the net. The single goal from Kolos proved sufficient to secure the points in this encounter. No red cards were shown to players from either side which allowed for uninterrupted play. The stronger designated team Shakhtar experienced an unexpected setback against the underdogs. This result demonstrated how tactical execution and efficiency can outweigh statistical dominance in terms of ball control. Further examination reveals that the deviation in expected outcomes played a key role in the final standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kolos Kovalivka exhibited a significant structural deviation by defeating the stronger team away from home.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with the observed performance levels during the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment was not possible because expected goals data remained unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The outcome showed no market alignment due to the substantial deviation recorded.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated given the complete absence of supporting data.
  • Event impact: Event impact centered on the solitary second half goal that produced the 0-1 result.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role since neither team received any dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Kalyonov

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Debenko

1st Assistant

Ukraine

M. Levchenko

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

M. Firsov

4th Official

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 17.35
Yellow cards / match 3.24
Red cards / match 0.15
Penalties / match 0.27
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
VS
Kolos Kovalivka R. Kostyshyn
R. Kostyshyn
2.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Kudrivka Rank: 43 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 54 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
Kudrivka Rank: 42 W
Oleksandria Rank: 44 W
SK Poltava Rank: 33 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shakhtar Donetsk
68.57%
Draw
20.42%
Away Kolos Kovalivka
11.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Shakhtar Donetsk
+67.16%
Draw
+10.97%
Kolos Kovalivka
-78.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.4
54.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
Kolos Kovalivka
Power Score
74.4
54.57
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
131
642

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Kolos Kovalivka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shakhtar Donetsk Kolos Kovalivka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kolos Kovalivka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.31
26.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.43
12.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shakhtar Donetsk -1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Kolos Kovalivka +1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Kolos Kovalivka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shakhtar Donetsk Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Kolos Kovalivka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Kolos Kovalivka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shakhtar Donetsk Kolos Kovalivka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.05
Kolos Kovalivka 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Kolos Kovalivka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.02
Kolos Kovalivka 0.00
Shakhtar Donetsk
Kolos Kovalivka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHK had peak pressure around 89'.
  • SHK started the game with stronger pressure.
SHK Pressure Kolos Kovalivka Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHK reached the top pressure at 89' (56.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Home
14 matches
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka Away
Match Record
11
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
11
Goals
33
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
33
+21
Goal Difference
-21

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:00:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-2-3
Pitch
K. Fesiun
Ukraine
23 K. Fesiun
A. Ghram
Tunisia
18 A. Ghram
V. Bondar
Substitution
Ukraine
5 V. Bondar
E. Nazaryna
Substitution
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
I. Azarovi
Georgia
16 I. Azarovi
O. Ocheretko
Substitution
Ukraine
27 O. Ocheretko
P. Obah
Nigeria
68 P. Obah
M. Gomes Claudino
Substitution
Brazil
6 M. Gomes Claudino
I. Severino Silva
14 I. Severino Silva
N. Martins da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 N. Martins da Silva
L. Oliveira Meirelles
49 L. Oliveira Meirelles
Pitch
I. Pakholyuk
Ukraine
31 I. Pakholyuk
Z. Rukhadze
Georgia
2 Z. Rukhadze
V. Bondarenko
Ukraine
5 V. Bondarenko
D. Khrypchuk
Substitution
Ukraine
45 D. Khrypchuk
Y. Popravka
81 Y. Popravka
T. Stepanenko
Substitution
Ukraine
27 T. Stepanenko
A. Rrapaj
Substitution
Albania
99 A. Rrapaj
N. Gagnidze
Georgia
20 N. Gagnidze
A. Salabay
Ukraine
17 A. Salabay
A. Tahiri
Substitution
Kosovo
11 A. Tahiri
H. Artem
Substitution
Ukraine
15 H. Artem

General Information

Date & Time :
May 21, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena L'viv
Capacity :
34915
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oleksandr Kalyonov
Igor Debenko
Maksim Levchenko
Maksim Firsov

Statistics

Possession
SHK
58%
Kolos Kovalivka
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Shots 6
80 Dangerous attacks 45
65 Possession 35
1 Corners 6
4 Free kicks 3
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

119 Attacks 94

Defensive

4 Saves 2

Discipline

6 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Kalyonov

Starting XI ▼

23
Kiril Fesyun
Kiril Fesyun Goalkeeper
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar Defender
17
Vinícius Tobias
Vinícius Tobias
Defender59'
16
Irakli Azarovi
Irakli Azarovi Defender
18
Alaa Ghram
Alaa Ghram Defender
6
Marlon Gomes
Marlon Gomes Midfielder
8
Dmytro Kryskiv
Dmytro Kryskiv
Midfielder45'
11
Newerton
Newerton Midfielder
9
Maryan Shved
Maryan Shved
Midfielder59'
14
Isaque
Isaque Midfielder
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko Midfielder
21
Artem Bondarenko
Artem Bondarenko
Midfielder76'
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
3
Diego Arroyo
Diego Arroyo
Defender71'
49
Luca Meirelles
Luca Meirelles Attacker
68
Prosper Obah
Prosper Obah Attacker
Referee : Oleksandr Kalyonov

Starting XI ▼

31
Ivan Pakholyuk
Ivan Pakholyuk Goalkeeper
2
Zurab Rukhadze
Zurab Rukhadze Defender
5
Valeriy Bondarenko
Valeriy Bondarenko Defender
45
Daniil Khrypchuk
Daniil Khrypchuk Defender
77
Andriy Ponedelnik
Andriy Ponedelnik
Defender75'
81
Yegor Popravka
Yegor Popravka Defender
15
Artem Gusol
Artem Gusol Midfielder
14
Ibrahim Kane
Ibrahim Kane
Midfielder45'
17
Anton Salabay
Anton Salabay Midfielder
20
Nika Gagnidze
Nika Gagnidze Midfielder
27
Taras Stepanenko
Taras Stepanenko Midfielder
55
Elias
Elias
Midfielder60'
99
Arinaldo Rrapaj
Arinaldo Rrapaj Midfielder
47
Daniil Denysenko
Daniil Denysenko
Midfielder75'
11
Ardit Tahiri
Ardit Tahiri Attacker
8
Artem Cheliadin
Artem Cheliadin
Midfielder78'

Events

2ND-HALF
78'
Event
Artem Cheliadin → Ardit Tahiri
10th Substitution
Event
Artem Bondarenko → Oleg Ocheretko
9th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Daniil Denysenko → Arinaldo Rrapaj
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Andriy Ponedelnik → Daniil Khrypchuk
8th Substitution
Event
Diego Arroyo → Yegor Nazaryna
6th Substitution
71'
60'
Event
Elias → Taras Stepanenko
5th Substitution
Event
Maryan Shved → Newerton
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Vinícius Tobias → Valeriy Bondar
4th Substitution
59'
49'
Event
Ardit Tahiri
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Dmytro Kryskiv → Marlon Gomes
2nd Substitution
45'
45'
Event
Ibrahim Kane → Artem Gusol
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

79
Update Update
Artem Cheliadin is on, and Ardit Tahiri is off.
75
Update Update
Artem Bondarenko is on, and Oleh Ocheretko is off.
74
Update Update
Andriy Ponedelnik comes on for Daniil Khrypchuk.
74
Update Update
Danill Denisenko is on, and Arinaldo Rrapaj is off.
70
Update Update
Diego Arroyo is on, and Yegor Nazaryna is off.
60
Update Update
Elias Miguel Trevizan Telles comes on for Taras Stepanenko.
59
Update Update
Maryan Shved comes on for Newerton.
59
Update Update
Vinicius Tobias comes on for Valerii Bondar.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ardit Tahiri scores, making it 0-1.
46
Update Update
Dmytro Kryskiv comes on for Marlon Gomes.

CONCLUSION

The match between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka ended in a surprising 0-1 defeat for the home team despite their superior possession statistics. Kolos capitalized on their opportunities effectively to grab the win. With no disciplinary issues affecting the game flow both sides competed evenly in terms of player availability. The significant deviation from anticipated results underscores the competitive nature of the league where any team can challenge the favorites on a given day. Analytical review points to the importance of clinical finishing over mere control of the ball. Shakhtar will need to reassess their approach in converting possession into tangible results for future fixtures. Overall the performance metrics suggest areas for improvement particularly in the attacking third for the home side while Kolos can take confidence from this away success.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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