Shakhtar Donetsk vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana Thu, 30 Apr - 7:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
1 Winner 3
Crystal Palace CRY
Full Time Thu, 30 Apr 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2
Oleg Ocheretko - 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Jørgen Strand Larsen - 84'
Daichi Kamada - 58'
Ismaïla Sarr - 1'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Shakhtar Donetsk 1–3 Crystal Palace. The result saw Crystal Palace take the points. Crystal Palace showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 71%–29%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Crystal Palace's 1-3 win represented a significant 50.5% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift for both teams was in line with their respective approaches.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events significantly impacted the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the game's structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Zwayer

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Sven Jablonski

4th Official

Robert Kempter

1st Assistant

Christian Dietz

2nd Assistant

Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
VS
Crystal Palace O. Glasner
O. Glasner
2.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.8
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AZ Rank: 74 D
AZ Rank: 74 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 W
Rijeka Rank: 70 D
Hamrun Spartans Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: 76 L
Fiorentina Rank: 77 W
AEK Larnaca Rank: W
AEK Larnaca Rank: D
Zrinjski Rank: 57 W
Zrinjski Rank: 57 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shakhtar Donetsk
23.08%
Draw
27.39%
Away Crystal Palace
49.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Shakhtar Donetsk
+22.88%
Draw
+25.47%
Crystal Palace
-48.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.33
86.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
Crystal Palace
Power Score
74.33
86.09
League Position
6
10
Global Rank
121
28

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Crystal Palace — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shakhtar Donetsk Crystal Palace

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Crystal Palace

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crystal Palace
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.04
39.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.83
27.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shakhtar Donetsk -1.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Crystal Palace +1.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Crystal Palace
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crystal Palace
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shakhtar Donetsk Crystal Palace
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Crystal Palace
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Crystal Palace
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Crystal Palace
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shakhtar Donetsk Crystal Palace
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.18
Crystal Palace 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Crystal Palace
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.10
Crystal Palace 0.01
Shakhtar Donetsk
Crystal Palace
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHK had peak pressure around 16'.
  • SHK started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
SHK Pressure CRY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHK reached the top pressure at 16' (81.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Home
0 matches
Crystal Palace CRY Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:02:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
V. Tobias da Silva
Brazil
17 V. Tobias da Silva
V. Bondar
Ukraine
5 V. Bondar
M. Matviyenko
Ukraine
22 M. Matviyenko
P. Azevedo Pereira
Brazil
13 P. Azevedo Pereira
O. Ocheretko
Substitution
Ukraine
27 O. Ocheretko
A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
Brazil
30 A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
P. Delmino da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
10 P. Delmino da Silva
M. Gomes Claudino
Substitution
Brazil
6 M. Gomes Claudino
E. de Sousa Lemos
Substitution
Brazil
7 E. de Sousa Lemos
K. Elias Nogueira
Substitution
Brazil
19 K. Elias Nogueira
Pitch
D. Henderson
England
1 D. Henderson
J. Canvot
France
23 J. Canvot
M. Lacroix
France
5 M. Lacroix
C. Richards
United States
26 C. Richards
T. Mitchell
England
3 T. Mitchell
D. Kamada
Substitution
Japan
18 D. Kamada
A. Wharton
England
20 A. Wharton
D. Muñoz Mejía
Colombia
2 D. Muñoz Mejía
Y. Jesús Pino Santos
Substitution
Spain
10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
J. Mateta
Substitution
France
14 J. Mateta
I. Sarr
Senegal
7 I. Sarr

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 30, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Capacity :
33268
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Felix Zwayer
Sven Jablonski
Robert Kempter
Christian Dietz

Statistics

Possession
SHK
65%
CRY
35%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 5
1 Shots 7
84 Dangerous attacks 31
71 Possession 29
13 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 7
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 10
13 Successful Dribbles 6
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
1 Assists 3
66 Ball Safe 59
24 Dribble Attempts 9
13 Throwins 12
8 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 3
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

109 Attacks 61
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

91 Successful Passes Percentage 73
472 Successful Passes 158
13 Key Passes 8
517 Passes 217
22 Long Passes 38
12 Successful Long Passes 13
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34

Defensive

10 Tackles 26
5 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 1

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 9
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
6.7
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar Defender
7.22
13
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique Defender
7.25
17
Vinícius Tobias
Vinícius Tobias Defender
7.03
22
Mykola Matvienko
Mykola Matvienko Defender
6.96
6
Marlon Gomes
Marlon Gomes Midfielder
7.17
14
Isaque
Isaque
Midfielder65'
6.86
7
Eguinaldo
Eguinaldo Midfielder
6.86
11
Newerton
Newerton
Midfielder74'
6.91
10
Pedrinho
Pedrinho Midfielder
7.3
21
Artem Bondarenko
Artem Bondarenko
Midfielder74'
6.94
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko Midfielder
6.68
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna
Midfielder83'
7.32
30
Alisson
Alisson Midfielder
7.14
19
Kauã Elias
Kauã Elias Attacker
7.05
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré
Attacker83'
6.62
Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI ▼

1
Dean Henderson
Dean Henderson Goalkeeper
6.68
5
Maxence Lacroix
Maxence Lacroix Defender
7.16
23
Jaydee Canvot
Jaydee Canvot Defender
6.83
26
Chris Richards
Chris Richards Defender
7.13
2
Daniel Muñoz
Daniel Muñoz Midfielder
7.33
3
Tyrick Mitchell
Tyrick Mitchell Midfielder
7.09
18
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada Midfielder
7.12
8
Jefferson Lerma
Jefferson Lerma
Midfielder90'
6.72
20
Adam Wharton
Adam Wharton Midfielder
7.04
7
Ismaïla Sarr
Ismaïla Sarr Attacker
7.19
10
Yéremy Pino
Yéremy Pino Attacker
7.26
11
Brennan Johnson
Brennan Johnson
Attacker73'
6.88
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Jean-Philippe Mateta Attacker
6.75
22
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Attacker65'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Jefferson Lerma → Daichi Kamada
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Yegor Nazaryna → Oleg Ocheretko
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Lassina Traoré → Kauã Elias
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Artem Bondarenko → Pedrinho
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Newerton → Eguinaldo
5th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Brennan Johnson → Yéremy Pino
3rd Substitution
Event
Isaque → Marlon Gomes
1st Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Jørgen Strand Larsen → Jean-Philippe Mateta
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Daichi Kamada
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
Event
Jaydee Canvot
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Pedro Henrique
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
52'
Event
Oleg Ocheretko
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Yéremy Pino
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vinícius Tobias
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Oleg Ocheretko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
1'
Event
Ismaïla Sarr
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Crystal Palace exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Crystal Palace preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Europa Conference League, Europe View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ