SD Eibar vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa Sat, 2 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
SD Eibar EIB
2 Winner 4
Málaga MLA
Full Time Sat, 2 May 7:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
José Corpas - 32'
Sergio Álvarez - 20'
Goal
|
Goal
Adrián Niño - 84', 65'
Darko Brasanac - 78'
Chupe - 8' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. SD Eibar 2–4 Málaga. The result saw Málaga take the points. Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 41%–59%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga's win exhibited a 74.1% structural deviation, classified as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment did not occur.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or events influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Bestard Servera

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Jiménez Yustos

1st Assistant

V. Almarche González

2nd Assistant

I. Irurtzun Artola

4th Official

SD Eibar B. San José Gil
B. San José Gil
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.77
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Albacete Rank: 66 W
Huesca Rank: 58 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 60 D
Ceuta Rank: 61 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 W
Las Palmas Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Almería Rank: 68 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 69 D
FC Andorra Rank: 66 D
Leganés Rank: 64 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SD Eibar
44.9%
Draw
29.24%
Away Málaga
25.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
SD Eibar
+44.66%
Draw
+27.32%
Málaga
-71.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.45
69.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SD Eibar
Málaga
Power Score
69.45
69.08
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
216
225

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SD Eibar — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SD Eibar Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SD Eibar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SD Eibar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.22
35.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.59
36.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SD Eibar +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SD Eibar
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SD Eibar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SD Eibar Málaga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SD Eibar Málaga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SD Eibar
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SD Eibar
vs
Málaga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SD Eibar Málaga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SD Eibar 0.35
Málaga 0.48
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SD Eibar Málaga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SD Eibar 0.10
Málaga 0.05
SD Eibar
Málaga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLA had peak pressure around 61'.
  • MLA started the game with stronger pressure.
EIB Pressure MLA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 61' (65.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SD Eibar EIB Home
19 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
6
Goals
23
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
23
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Magunagoitia Blasco
Spain
13 J. Magunagoitia Blasco
S. Cubero Ezcurra
Substitution
Spain
2 S. Cubero Ezcurra
A. Aranbarri Murua
Spain
4 A. Aranbarri Murua
J. Amador Silos
Portugal
15 J. Amador Silos
A. Arbilla Zabala
Spain
23 A. Arbilla Zabala
L. Olaetxea Ibaibarriaga
Spain
14 L. Olaetxea Ibaibarriaga
S. Álvarez Díaz
Spain
6 S. Álvarez Díaz
M. Ares Djalo
Substitution
Spain
18 M. Ares Djalo
A. Madariaga Susaeta
Substitution
Spain
16 A. Madariaga Susaeta
J. Corpas Serna
Substitution
Spain
17 J. Corpas Serna
J. Bautista Orgilles
Spain
9 J. Bautista Orgilles
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
E. Galilea Azaceta
Spain
4 E. Galilea Azaceta
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
I. Merino Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
D. Larrubia Romano
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
C. Ruiz Rubio
Substitution
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa
Capacity :
8164
Attendance :
6491
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lluís Bestard Servera
Víctor Jiménez Yustos
Vicente Javier Almarche González
Imanol Irurtzun Artola

Statistics

Possession
EIB
43%
MLA
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 4
5 Big Chances Created 4
2 Shots 5
37 Dangerous attacks 40
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

26 Throwins 20
0 Penalties 1
4 Successful Dribbles 8
20 Dribble Attempts 16
10 Goal Kicks 6
1 Assists 3
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
75 Ball Safe 70
1 Injuries 0
7 Goal Attempts 13

Attacking

88 Attacks 106
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

64 Long Passes 57
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
7 Key Passes 18
34 Successful Long Passes 25
415 Passes 602
335 Successful Passes 524
81 Successful Passes Percentage 87

Defensive

41 Duels Won 44
8 Interceptions 10
4 Saves 2
17 Tackles 20

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 11
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

13
Jonmi Magunagoitia
Jonmi Magunagoitia Goalkeeper
6.98
2
Sergio Cubero
Sergio Cubero Defender
6.86
22
Álvaro Rodríguez
Álvaro Rodríguez
Defender79'
6.73
4
Aritz Arambarri
Aritz Arambarri Defender
6.64
15
Jair Amador
Jair Amador Defender
6.73
23
Anaitz Arbilla
Anaitz Arbilla Defender
7.09
6
Sergio Álvarez
Sergio Álvarez Midfielder
6.92
14
Lander Olaetxea
Lander Olaetxea Midfielder
6.69
16
Ander Madariaga
Ander Madariaga Midfielder
6.73
30
Aleix Garrido
Aleix Garrido
Midfielder79'
6.9
17
José Corpas
José Corpas Midfielder
6.91
24
Juan Bernat
Juan Bernat
Defender85'
6.34
18
Adu Ares
Adu Ares Midfielder
6.77
20
Javi Martón
Javi Martón
Attacker63'
6.8
9
Jon Bautista
Jon Bautista Attacker
6.88
Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.97
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
6.89
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea Defender
6.8
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
6.98
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
6.75
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
7.16
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.85
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa
Midfielder85'
6.77
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
6.68
6
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
Midfielder46'
6.82
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Midfielder
6.74
7
Haitam Abaida
Haitam Abaida
Attacker62'
6.65
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.07
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac
Midfielder70'
6.49
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Attacker
6.87

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Diego Murillo
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Juan Bernat → José Corpas
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Aarón Ochoa → Joaquín Muñoz
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Adrián Niño
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Aleix Garrido → Ander Madariaga
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Álvaro Rodríguez → Sergio Cubero
8th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Darko Brasanac
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
73'
Event
Carlos Dotor
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Darko Brasanac → Chupe
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Adrián Niño
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Javi Martón → Adu Ares
5th Substitution
63'
Event
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Haitam Abaida → Rafa Rodríguez
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Ramón Enríquez → Izan Merino
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
José Corpas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
32'
Event
Sergio Álvarez
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
20'
19'
Event
Izan Merino
3rd Yellowcard
8'
Event
Chupe
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Lander Olaetxea
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
7'
6'
Event
Diego Murillo
Penalty awarded
Event
José Corpas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Anaitz Arbilla Zabala attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aritz Arambarri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Javier Martinez Calvo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Juan Bernat comes on for Jose Corpas.
85
Substitution Substitution
Aaron Ochoa is substituted for Joaquin Munoz Benavides.
84
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino scores with a left-footed shot.
79
Update Update
Alvaro Rodriguez Perez replaces Sergio Cubero.
79
Update Update
Aleix Garrido comes on for Ander Madariaga.
78
Attempt Attempt
Darko Brasanac scores with a right-footed shot.
70
Update Update
Darko Brasanac is on, and Chupete is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jose Corpas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Jon Bautista attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino scores with a left-footed shot.
64
Update Update
Javier Marton comes on for Malcom Adu.
63
Update Update
Javier Marton comes on for Malcom Adu.
62
Substitution Substitution
Javier Martinez Calvo is substituted for Lander Olaetxea.
62
Substitution Substitution
Javier Martinez Calvo is substituted for Lander Olaetxea.
60
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
60
Attempt Attempt
Jon Bautista takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Chupete's right-footed shot is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Jon Bautista takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Chupete's left-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Ramon Enriquez Rodriguez comes on for Izan Merino.
45
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jon Bautista takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Rafa Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Jose Corpas takes a right-footed shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Jon Bautista takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Malcom Adu takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Einar Galilea Azaceta attempts a header but misses the shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Alvarez Diaz takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
10
Attempt Attempt
Ander Madariaga's left-footed shot is blocked.
8
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Chupete scores, making it 0-1.
6
Update Update
Penalty confirmed after VAR review.
4
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Dotor takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jose Corpas receives a yellow card.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Luis Bestard Servera.

CONCLUSION

Málaga's 4-2 triumph over favored SD Eibar underscores their growing prowess, turning a 1-2 halftime deficit into a decisive victory through dominant possession and second-half precision. Eibar's early control evaporated as Málaga's midfield orchestration overwhelmed them, proving that momentum can eclipse strength. This result signals Málaga's potential for higher finishes, while Eibar must address defensive frailties exposed under pressure. Without disciplinary incidents, the pure skill on display made for compelling viewing, reminding all that football rewards adaptability above all. Málaga's efficiency in converting chances sealed a statement win.

SD Eibar vs Málaga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.