SD Eibar vs Ceuta Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa Sun, 5 Apr - 12:00 PM

La Liga 2

SD Eibar EIB

Ceuta Ceuta

Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:00 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Jon Bautista - 70'

Carlos Hernández - 52' (Own Goal)

Javi Martón - 12' (P)

CONTEXT

SD Eibar has finished their match against Ceuta, securing a decisive 3-0 full-time victory. The home side took control early, entering the halftime break with a 1-0 lead before adding two more goals in the second half. This result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations, as SD Eibar entered the fixture as the stronger team with a 61.5% probability of winning, compared to Ceuta's 14.6% chance and a 24% probability of a draw. Ultimately, the victory produced a significant deviation level of 38.5% favoring SD Eibar. Despite the lopsided final scoreline, the flow of play was surprisingly balanced, with ball possession evenly split at 50% for both SD Eibar and Ceuta. Expected goals (xG) metrics were not available for this fixture, meaning an assessment of whether the outcome was consistent with xG cannot be determined. However, the overall efficiency shift was directly in line with standard expectations. The match concluded without any major disciplinary events, as neither team received a red card to impact the run of play. SD Eibar cleanly executed their game plan, fully living up to market forecasts and securing a dominant home win.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: SD Eibar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Huerta de Aza

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Carreño Cabrera

1st Assistant

J. García Urbaneja

2nd Assistant

A. Ramo Andrés

4th Official

B. San José Gil

J. Romero Gil

1.6

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.48

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

SD Eibar

61.48%

Draw

23.96%

Ceuta

14.56%

Team Power Ranking

69.32

55.94

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

SD Eibar

Ceuta

Power Score

69.32

55.94

League Position

Global Rank

205

465

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

SD Eibar — Opponent-weighted form score

Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SD Eibar Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

SD Eibar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SD Eibar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Ceuta

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.70

15.20

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

15.20

30.70

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

SD Eibar +1.57 Efficiency Index

Ceuta -1.57 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

SD Eibar

Ceuta

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SD Eibar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Ceuta

Created Set-piece attacking threat

SD Eibar Ceuta

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

SD Eibar Ceuta

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

SD Eibar

Ceuta

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

SD Eibar

Ceuta

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

SD Eibar Ceuta

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

SD Eibar Ceuta

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

SD Eibar

Ceuta

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SD Eibar EIB Home

2 matches

Ceuta Ceuta Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 4-3-3

13 J. Magunagoitia Blasco

22 Á. Rodríguez Pérez

8 P. Nolaskoain Esnal

15 J. Amador Silos

23 A. Arbilla Zabala

6 S. Álvarez Díaz

16 A. Madariaga Susaeta

18 M. Ares Djalo

20 J. Martón Ansó

17 J. Corpas Serna

9 J. Bautista Orgilles

1 P. López Galisteo

16 C. Redruello Nimo

15 D. González Cabanes

6 C. Hernández Alarcón

17 G. Almenara Hernández

20 J. Gómez Campaña

5 Y. Didi

12 M. Illescas Montaño

22 K. Kone

9 M. Fernández Sánchez

7 A. Ahmed Ahmed

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 05, 2026, 12:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Capacity :

8164

Attendance :

3195

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Marta Huerta de Aza

Álvaro Yeray Carreño Cabrera

José Unai García Urbaneja

Armando Ramo Andrés

Statistics

Possession

EIB

51%

Ceuta

49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0

3 Big Chances Created 0

3 Shots 5

47 Dangerous attacks 32

50 Possession 50

6 Corners 2

12 Free kicks 14

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 4

13 Dribble Attempts 6

1 Assists 0

5 Substitutions 5

9 Goal Attempts 5

79 Ball Safe 83

19 Throwins 18

23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67

10 Goal Kicks 7

1 Penalties 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0

96 Attacks 86

Possession

8 Key Passes 4

63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

34 Successful Long Passes 14

452 Passes 467

84 Successful Passes Percentage 81

54 Long Passes 44

381 Successful Passes 378

Defensive

1 Saves 4

34 Duels Won 41

13 Interceptions 8

9 Tackles 16

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3

17 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

4 Offsides 3

14 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza

Manager ▼

B. San José Gil Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jonmi Magunagoitia Goalkeeper

Peru Nolaskoain Defender

Juan Bernat

Defender80'

Jair Amador Defender

Álvaro Rodríguez Defender

Anaitz Arbilla Defender

Sergio Álvarez Midfielder

Javi Martínez

Midfielder62'

Ander Madariaga Midfielder

Jon Magunazelaia

Midfielder72'

José Corpas Midfielder

Jon Guruzeta

Midfielder72'

Adu Ares Midfielder

Javi Martón Midfielder

Aleix Garrido

Midfielder62'

Jon Bautista Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Aleix Garrido

Midfielder62'

Javi Martínez

Midfielder62'

Jon Magunazelaia

Midfielder72'

Jon Guruzeta

Midfielder72'

Juan Bernat

Defender80'

Bench ▼

Luis López Goalkeeper

Sergio Cubero Defender

Hodei Arrillaga Defender

Aritz Arambarri Defender

Hugo García Attacker

Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza