SC Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Eredivisie
Heracles Almelo HEASTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between SC Heerenveen and Heracles Almelo has finished with a decisive 4-1 victory for the home side. SC Heerenveen took a narrow 2-1 lead into the halftime break before pulling away comfortably in the second half to secure the win. The final result perfectly aligned with pre-match market expectations, which had established SC Heerenveen as the clear favorites with a 64.5% probability of winning. Heracles Almelo entered with just a 17% chance of an upset, alongside an 18.6% likelihood of a draw. However, the convincing margin of victory resulted in a significant deviation favoring SC Heerenveen compared to standard pre-game projections. On the pitch, SC Heerenveen dictated the tempo, controlling a dominant 66% of the possession and restricting the visitors to just 34% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to further analyze the quality of chances created, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained in line with general expectations. Additionally, the fixture was played without any severe disciplinary issues, as zero red cards were issued, allowing the home side to capitalize on their undisputed tactical superiority.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: SC Heerenveen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
I. Oostrom
Other match officials
L. de Koning
2nd Assistant
S. Shukrula
4th Official
R. van Marrewijk
1st Assistant


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
SC Heerenveen
Heracles AlmeloTeam Power Ranking
i
70
57.1
SC Heerenveen
Heracles AlmeloForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
SC Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
SC Heerenveen ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
SC Heerenveen ⚠ Proxy
SC Heerenveen Heracles Almelo
SC Heerenveen Heracles Almelo
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
SC Heerenveen
SC Heerenveen Heracles Almelo


SC Heerenveen Heracles Almelo


Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:30+00:00
STARTING XI
SC Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo























































General Information
Next Match

SC Heerenveen
vs

AZ
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 2:45 PM
Venue: Away

Heracles Almelo
vs

Ajax
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
SC HeerenveenManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼






Heracles AlmeloManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼





Events
CONCLUSION
SC Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary