SC Heerenveen vs Ajax Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Abe Lenstra Stadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen HEE
Versus
Ajax AJA
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

SC Heerenveen welcomes Ajax to Abe Lenstra Stadion for an Eredivisie regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Ajax enters as the stronger side with a power score of 75.87 compared to Heerenveen's 69.09, translating to a 6.8-point advantage. Currently sitting 5th in the league, Ajax looks to capitalize on their edge over 8th-placed Heerenveen. Recent form tilts slightly towards the hosts, who boast an 18.33 form score against Ajax's 16, suggesting resilience at home. Heerenveen's mid-table position reflects steady play, while Ajax's higher ranking underscores their quality. Structural differences highlight Ajax's superior overall strength, though Heerenveen's home advantage could level the field. Limited data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces leaves some uncertainty, but Ajax's power metrics point to control. Expect a competitive encounter where Ajax's quality meets Heerenveen's grit.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Ajax holds a 6.8-point power advantage over Heerenveen with scores of 75.87 to 69.09.
  • Form: Heerenveen edges form with a score of 18.33 compared to Ajax's 16.
  • Squad: Ajax sits 5th in the Eredivisie while Heerenveen is 8th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: No specific transition play data provided for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced variable analysis for both sides.
  • Market: Baseline split: SC Heerenveen 31.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.2% (Δ+0%) | Ajax 45.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
SC Heerenveen R. Veldman
R. Veldman
VS
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
NAC Breda Rank: 54 L
FC Volendam Rank: 60 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 W
AZ Rank: 76 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 55 W
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 73 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 L
PSV Rank: 86 D
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 55 W
FC Twente Rank: 77 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 33
33
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SC Heerenveen
31.37%
Draw
23.15%
Away Ajax
45.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.09
75.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SC Heerenveen
Ajax
Power Score
69.09
75.87
League Position
8
5
Global Rank
228
102

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SC Heerenveen — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SC Heerenveen Ajax

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SC Heerenveen HEE Home
45 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
33
6
Draws
6
33
Losses
6
Goals
48
Goals Scored
131
131
Goals Conceded
48
-83
Goal Difference
+83

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T02:02:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
B. Klaverboer
22 B. Klaverboer
O. Johansen Braude
45 O. Johansen Braude
S. Kersten
4 S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
3 M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
19 V. Zagaritis
L. Brouwers
8 L. Brouwers
M. Linday
16 M. Linday
J. Trenskow
20 J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld
10 R. Meerveld
L. Oyen
11 L. Oyen
D. Vente
9 D. Vente
Pitch
M. Paes
26 M. Paes
L. Rosa
2 L. Rosa
Y. Baas
15 Y. Baas
J. Šutalo
37 J. Šutalo
A. Gaaei
3 A. Gaaei
J. Mokio
24 J. Mokio
O. Gloukh
10 O. Gloukh
Y. Regeer
6 Y. Regeer
M. Godts
11 M. Godts
K. Dolberg
9 K. Dolberg
S. Berghuis
23 S. Berghuis

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Capacity :
27224
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Joey Kooij
Dyon Fikkert
Halis Murat Kucukerbir
Thomas Hardeman

Expected Lineup

Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

22
Bernt Klaverboer
Bernt Klaverboer Goalkeeper
6.89
9
Dylan Vente
Dylan Vente Centre Forward
6.82
3
Maas Willemsen
Maas Willemsen Left Back
6.85
4
Sam Kersten
Sam Kersten Right Back
6.73
8
Luuk Brouwers
Luuk Brouwers Defensive Midfield
6.98
11
Luca Oyen
Luca Oyen Left Wing
6.51
16
Marcus Linday
Marcus Linday Defensive Midfield
6.85
20
Jacob Trenskow
Jacob Trenskow Right Wing
7.18
10
Ringo Meerveld
Ringo Meerveld Attacking Midfield
6.93
19
Vasilios Zagaritis
Vasilios Zagaritis Left Back
6.9
45
Oliver Braude
Oliver Braude Right Back
6.81
Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
6.9
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
7.63
9
Kasper Dolberg
Kasper Dolberg Centre Forward
6.75
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7.32
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Left Back
7.14
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Left Back
6.95
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Right Back
6.83
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer Central Midfield
6.95
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Central Midfield
6.82
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh Central Midfield
6.93
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Right Back
6.77

CONCLUSION

Ajax's clear power and positional edge positions them favorably against Heerenveen, despite the hosts' marginal form advantage and home venue boost. Heerenveen's 8th place shows solidity, but Ajax's 75.87 power score suggests dominance in key areas. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, the focus remains on Ajax's overall superiority driving a likely away win. Heerenveen must leverage their form to disrupt, yet Ajax's quality should prevail in this mid-table tussle, maintaining their top-five push.

SC Heerenveen vs Ajax preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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