SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Europa-Park Stadion Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
SC Freiburg SCF
4 Winner 1
RB Leipzig RBL
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Derry Scherhant - 75'
Matthias Ginter - 47'
Niklas Beste - 24'
Goal
|
Goal
Assan Ouédraogo - 33'

CONTEXT

SC Freiburg defeated RB Leipzig 4-1 in a Bundesliga encounter where the home side overcame a stronger opponent according to pre-match assessments. Freiburg led 2-1 at halftime and added two more goals in the second period to secure the victory. Despite RB Leipzig holding 59 percent possession and posting a slightly higher expected goals total of 1.55 compared to Freiburg's 1.52, the result diverged from underlying metrics. The significant performance deviation by the home team produced a final margin that exceeded typical patterns for such fixtures. No red cards were shown to either side during the contest. The outcome highlighted how clinical finishing can override balanced chance creation in determining the scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SC Freiburg achieved a significant deviation from expected performance levels to claim the win.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed patterns throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not consistent with the closely matched expected goals totals.
  • Market alignment: The observed outcome aligned with market expectations despite the scoreline.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals stood at 1.52 for SC Freiburg and 1.55 for RB Leipzig.
  • Event impact: Key second-half goals extended the halftime lead of 2-1 into a 4-1 final score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the result experienced no related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Stegemann

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Günsch

1st Assistant

Germany

F. Maibaum

2nd Assistant

Germany

T. Gansloweit

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.55
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.33
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
VS
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.87
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
Heidenheim Rank: 73 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 77 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 75 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SC Freiburg
38.44%
Draw
24.78%
Away RB Leipzig
36.78%

Movement

Changes since opening
SC Freiburg
-59.16%
Draw
+22.87%
RB Leipzig
+36.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.16
85.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
Power Score
83.16
85.84
League Position
7
3
Global Rank
42
29

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SC Freiburg RB Leipzig

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SC Freiburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

RB Leipzig

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SC Freiburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy RB Leipzig
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.24
27.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.46
30.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SC Freiburg +0.25 Efficiency Index
vs
RB Leipzig -0.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SC Freiburg
vs
RB Leipzig
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SC Freiburg RB Leipzig
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SC Freiburg RB Leipzig
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SC Freiburg
vs
RB Leipzig
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SC Freiburg RB Leipzig
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SC Freiburg 0.39
RB Leipzig 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SC Freiburg RB Leipzig
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SC Freiburg 0.02
RB Leipzig 0.14
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCF had peak pressure around 28'.
  • SCF started the game with stronger pressure.
SCF Pressure RBL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCF reached the top pressure at 28' (93.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SC Freiburg SCF Home
19 matches
RB Leipzig RBL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
12
4
Draws
4
12
Losses
3
Goals
17
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
17
-24
Goal Difference
+24

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
N. Atubolu
Germany
1 N. Atubolu
P. Treu
Germany
29 P. Treu
M. Ginter
Substitution
Germany
28 M. Ginter
P. Lienhart
Austria
3 P. Lienhart
J. Makengo
France
33 J. Makengo
M. Eggestein
Germany
8 (C) M. Eggestein
N. Höfler
Substitution
Germany
27 N. Höfler
J. Beste
Substitution
Germany
19 J. Beste
J. Manzambi
Substitution
Switzerland
44 J. Manzambi
D. Scherhant
Germany
7 D. Scherhant
I. Matanovic
Substitution
Croatia
31 I. Matanovic
Pitch
P. Gulácsi
Hungary
1 P. Gulácsi
M. Finkgräfe
Germany
35 M. Finkgräfe
C. Lukeba
France
23 C. Lukeba
W. Orban
Hungary
4 W. Orban
B. Henrichs
Substitution
Germany
39 B. Henrichs
C. Baumgartner
Austria
14 (C) C. Baumgartner
N. Seiwald
Substitution
Austria
13 N. Seiwald
F. Ouedraogo
Germany
20 F. Ouedraogo
Y. Diomande
Substitution
49 Y. Diomande
C. Harder
Substitution
Denmark
11 C. Harder
B. Gruda
Substitution
Germany
10 B. Gruda

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Europa-Park Stadion
Capacity :
34700
Attendance :
33600
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sascha Stegemann
Christof Günsch
Fabian Maibaum
Timo Gansloweit

Statistics

Possession
SCF
44%
RBL
56%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 4
2 Shots 4
28 Dangerous attacks 44
41 Possession 59
1 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Injuries 1
3 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
94 Ball Safe 108
9 Goal Attempts 11
12 Successful Headers 12
13 Successful Dribbles 13
27 Dribble Attempts 25
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 52
8 Goal Kicks 6
14 Throwins 23

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 4
83 Attacks 105

Possession

49 Long Passes 40
81 Successful Passes Percentage 88
346 Passes 490
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
10 Key Passes 12
26 Successful Long Passes 22
280 Successful Passes 429

Defensive

8 Interceptions 4
22 Tackles 21
5 Saves 1
54 Duels Won 59

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 4
9 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
7.53
3
Philipp Lienhart
Philipp Lienhart Defender
6.47
28
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter Defender
7.7
43
Bruno Ogbus
Bruno Ogbus
Defender72'
6.68
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu Defender
6.59
33
Jordy Makengo
Jordy Makengo Defender
7.44
7
Derry Scherhant
Derry Scherhant Midfielder
7.03
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein (C) Midfielder
6.71
19
Niklas Beste
Niklas Beste Midfielder
7.1
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo
Midfielder60'
6.79
27
Nicolas Höfler
Nicolas Höfler Midfielder
6.57
17
Lukas Kübler
Lukas Kübler
Defender60'
6.62
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Midfielder
7.36
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler
Attacker72'
6.71
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic Attacker
8.45
26
Maximilian Philipp
Maximilian Philipp
Attacker86'
Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

1
Péter Gulácsi
Péter Gulácsi Goalkeeper
6.07
4
Willi Orbán
Willi Orbán Defender
6.91
23
Castello Lukeba
Castello Lukeba Defender
6.77
35
Max Finkgräfe
Max Finkgräfe Defender
6.48
39
Benjamin Henrichs
Benjamin Henrichs Defender
5.94
17
Ridle Baku
Ridle Baku
Defender63'
6.17
13
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder
7.02
27
Tidiam Gomis
Tidiam Gomis
Attacker73'
6.12
14
Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner (C) Midfielder
6.28
20
Assan Ouédraogo
Assan Ouédraogo Midfielder
6.84
10
Brajan Gruda
Brajan Gruda Attacker
6.96
7
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa
Midfielder63'
6.54
11
Conrad Harder
Conrad Harder Attacker
6.81
40
Rômulo
Rômulo
Attacker73'
6.22
49
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Attacker
6.99
9
Johan Bakayoko
Johan Bakayoko
Attacker80'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Maximilian Philipp → Igor Matanovic
10th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Johan Bakayoko → Yan Diomande
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Christoph Baumgartner
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Derry Scherhant
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
75'
73'
Event
Tidiam Gomis → Nicolas Seiwald
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Rômulo → Conrad Harder
8th Substitution
Event
Bruno Ogbus → Matthias Ginter
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Lucas Höler → Johan Manzambi
5th Substitution
72'
63'
Event
Antonio Nusa → Brajan Gruda
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Ridle Baku → Benjamin Henrichs
3rd Substitution
Event
Lukas Kübler → Nicolas Höfler
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Vincenzo Grifo → Niklas Beste
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Matthias Ginter
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Assan Ouédraogo
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Igor Matanovic
Header / 2nd Goal
26'
Event
Niklas Beste
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

Match Commentary

14
Attempt Attempt
Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went high and wide to the left.
13
Update Update
Offside called against SC Freiburg. Johan Manzambi is offside.
11
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right. Igor Matanovic provided the assist.
7
Update Update
Nicolas Höfler from SC Freiburg commits a foul.
7
Update Update
Yan Diomande of RB Leipzig won a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but the ball goes high. The assist was provided by Derry Scherhant.
3
Update Update
Conrad Harder from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Derry Scherhant from SC Freiburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by SC Freiburg's goalkeeper Noah Atubolu, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Christoph Baumgartner.
1
Update Update
Assan Ouédraogo of RB Leipzig won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
Foul by Nicolas Höfler of SC Freiburg.

CONCLUSION

The match demonstrated that finishing efficiency can produce results detached from possession and chance creation balances. SC Freiburg capitalized on opportunities to overcome the pre-match assessment favoring RB Leipzig as the stronger side. The 4-1 scoreline reflected a clear home victory built on a 2-1 halftime advantage and additional second-half strikes. Although expected goals remained nearly even, the actual outcome underscored variance in conversion rates. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to maintain full tactical setups until the end. This result adds an unexpected data point to season-long performance tracking for both clubs. Further analysis of shot locations and quality would clarify how the margin developed beyond aggregate metrics.

SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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