Sassuolo vs Lecce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Sun, 17 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Sassuolo SAS
2 Winner 3
Lecce LEC
Full Time Sun, 17 May 6:45 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Andrea Pinamonti - 82'
Armand Laurienté - 20'
Goal
|
Goal
Nikola Stulic - 90+6'
Walid Cheddira - 25', 14'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sassuolo 2–3 Lecce. The result saw Lecce take the points. Lecce showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. xG finished Sassuolo 2.2 – 0.8 Lecce. Possession was 74%–26%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sassuolo 2-3 Lecce. Lecce showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. La Penna

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Rossi

1st Assistant

Italy

D. Fontemurato

2nd Assistant

Italy

D. Di Marco

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
VS
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.88
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: 74 L
AC Milan Rank: 85 W
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Como Rank: 84 W
Genoa Rank: 74 L
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Pisa Rank: 63 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 D
Fiorentina Rank: 78 D
Bologna Rank: 79 L
Atalanta Rank: 84 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sassuolo
37%
Draw
29.9%
Away Lecce
33.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sassuolo
+32.04%
Draw
-60.66%
Lecce
+28.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.29
69.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sassuolo
Lecce
Power Score
62.29
69.25
League Position
11
17
Global Rank
112
222

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sassuolo Lecce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lecce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sassuolo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lecce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.05
48.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.65
24.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sassuolo -2.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Lecce +2.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sassuolo
Lecce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sassuolo
vs
Lecce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sassuolo Lecce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sassuolo Lecce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sassuolo
Lecce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sassuolo
vs
Lecce
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sassuolo Lecce
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sassuolo 0.27
Lecce 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sassuolo Lecce
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sassuolo 0.09
Lecce 0.04
Sassuolo
Lecce
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAS had peak pressure around 85'.
  • LEC started the game with stronger pressure.
SAS Pressure LEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAS reached the top pressure at 85' (74.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sassuolo SAS Home
9 matches
Lecce LEC Away
Match Record
4
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
4
Goals
12
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
12
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:06:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Turati
Italy
13 S. Turati
W. Coulibaly
France
25 W. Coulibaly
P. de Jesus Gomes
Brazil
66 P. de Jesus Gomes
T. Muharemovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
80 T. Muharemovic
U. Garcia Lopes
Switzerland
23 U. Garcia Lopes
K. Thorstvedt
Norway
42 K. Thorstvedt
N. Matić
Substitution
Serbia
18 N. Matić
I. Koné
Substitution
Canada
90 I. Koné
D. Berardi
Substitution
Italy
10 (C) D. Berardi
M. N'Zola
Substitution
Angola
8 M. N'Zola
A. Lauriente
Substitution
France
45 A. Lauriente
Pitch
W. Falcone
Italy
30 (C) W. Falcone
A. Gallo
Italy
25 A. Gallo
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
J. Siebert
Germany
5 J. Siebert
D. Melo Veiga
Substitution
Portugal
17 D. Melo Veiga
O. Ngom
France
79 O. Ngom
Y. Ramadani
Substitution
Albania
20 Y. Ramadani
L. Banda
Substitution
Zambia
19 L. Banda
L. Coulibaly
Mali
29 L. Coulibaly
S. Pierotti
Substitution
Argentina
50 S. Pierotti
W. Cheddira
Substitution
Morocco
99 W. Cheddira

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity :
21584
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Federico La Penna
Luigi Rossi
Domenico Fontemurato
Davide Di Marco

Statistics

Possession
SAS
67%
LEC
33%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
6 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 2
56 Dangerous attacks 33
74 Possession 26
2 Corners 8
13 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 19
11 Successful Dribbles 8
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
16 Throwins 20
7 Goal Kicks 7
12 Successful Headers 9
2 Assists 2
91 Ball Safe 71
4 Injuries 2
13 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 1
117 Attacks 73

Possession

15 Successful Long Passes 16
634 Passes 208
43 Long Passes 49
86 Successful Passes Percentage 68
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
547 Successful Passes 141
12 Key Passes 7

Defensive

9 Interceptions 4
3 Saves 4
49 Duels Won 34
14 Tackles 11

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 23
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
7 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

13
Stefano Turati
Stefano Turati Goalkeeper
6.47
23
Ulisses Garcia
Ulisses Garcia Defender
6.62
25
Woyo Coulibaly
Woyo Coulibaly Defender
6.25
66
Pedro Felipe
Pedro Felipe Defender
6.89
80
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
6.22
18
Nemanja Matic
Nemanja Matic Midfielder
6.54
35
Luca Lipani
Luca Lipani
Midfielder63'
6.84
42
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
7.12
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné Midfielder
6.92
50
Darryl Bakola
Darryl Bakola
Midfielder72'
6.87
8
M'Bala Nzola
M'Bala Nzola Attacker
6.31
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti
Attacker63'
7.15
10
Domenico Berardi
Domenico Berardi (C) Attacker
6.88
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato
Midfielder72'
6.3
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté Attacker
8.42
33
Christian Frangella
Christian Frangella
Midfielder88'
Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone (C) Goalkeeper
6.54
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Defender
6.38
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
6.54
11
Konan N’Dri
Konan N’Dri
Attacker85'
6.4
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
6.46
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Defender
6.32
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Midfielder
6.87
18
Gaby Jean
Gaby Jean
Defender63'
6.3
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder
6.61
9
Nikola Stulic
Nikola Stulic
Attacker85'
7.21
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
6.38
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Midfielder
6.86
16
Omri Gandelman
Omri Gandelman
Midfielder79'
6.9
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
6.21
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira Attacker
2
8.35
22
Francesco Camarda
Francesco Camarda
Attacker80'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Nikola Stulic
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
90+1'
Event
Antonino Gallo
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Christian Frangella → Armand Laurienté
10th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Nikola Stulic → Ylber Ramadani
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Tiago Gabriel
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Konan N’Dri → Danilo Veiga
8th Substitution
Event
Andrea Pinamonti
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
82'
81'
Event
Danilo Veiga
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Francesco Camarda  → Walid Cheddira
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Omri Gandelman → Santiago Pierotti
6th Substitution
Event
Tarik Muharemović
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Cristian Volpato → Domenico Berardi
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Darryl Bakola → Ismaël Koné
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Luca Lipani → Nemanja Matic
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Andrea Pinamonti → M'Bala Nzola
3rd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Gaby Jean → Lameck Banda
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Ylber Ramadani
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Kristian Thorstvedt
Goal ruled out
28'
25'
Event
Walid Cheddira
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Armand Laurienté
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
20'
14'
Event
Walid Cheddira
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Stulic scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Pinamonti takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’dri takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonino Gallo receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Volpato takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Substitution Substitution
Christian Frangella is substituted for Armand Lauriente.
87
Update Update
Francesco Camarda takes a header, but it misses the target.
87
Update Update
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’dri comes on for Danilo Veiga.
86
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Pinamonti's header is saved.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tiago Gabriel receives a yellow card.
83
Update Update
Nikola Stulic comes on for Ylber Ramadani.
82
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Thorstvedt takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
82
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Pinamonti takes a left-footed shot and scores.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Danilo Veiga receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Francesco Camarda replaces Walid Cheddira.
79
Update Update
Francesco Camarda replaces Santiago Pierotti.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tarik Muharemovic receives a yellow card.
72
Update Update
Darryl Bakola comes on for Ismael Kone.
72
Update Update
Cristian Volpato comes on for Domenico Berardi.
63
Update Update
Gaby Jean is on, and Lameck Banda is off.
63
Update Update
Luca Lipani comes on for Nemanja Matic.
63
Update Update
Andrea Pinamonti comes on for MBala Nzola.
60
Attempt Attempt
MBala Nzola takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Lameck Banda's right-footed shot is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
MBala Nzola takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ylber Ramadani receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Woyo Coulibaly's right-footed shot is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Ylber Ramadani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Pierotti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Walid Cheddira takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Update Update
Walid Cheddira scores with a header.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Walid Cheddira scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Lameck Banda.
23
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Armand Lauriente scores, making it 1-1.
20
Attempt Attempt
Armand Lauriente takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
14
Attempt Attempt
Walid Cheddira takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
13
Attempt Attempt
Domenico Berardi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Kone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Lameck Banda takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Walid Cheddira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Kone takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sassuolo 2-3 Lecce. Structural assessment: Lecce exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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