Sassuolo vs Como Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Fri, 17 Apr - 4:30 PM
Serie A
Sassuolo SAS
2 Winner 1
Como COM
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
M'Bala Nzola - 44'
Cristian Volpato - 42'
Goal
|
Goal
Nico Paz - 45+2'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sassuolo 2–0 Como. The result saw Sassuolo take the points. Sassuolo showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 30%–70%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sassuolo's win showed minimal 5.3% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents outcome consistency assessment with xG.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Fourneau

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Barone

1st Assistant

G. Monaco

2nd Assistant

S. Galipò

4th Official

Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
VS
Como F. Fàbregas i Soler
F. Fàbregas i Soler
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa Rank: L
Cagliari Rank: W
Juventus Rank: D
Bologna Rank: L
Lazio Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Inter Rank: L
Udinese Rank: D
Pisa Rank: W
Roma Rank: W
Cagliari Rank: W
Lecce Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sassuolo
94.72%
Draw
5.09%
Away Como
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sassuolo
+5.91%
Draw
-5.47%
Como
-0.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.56
30.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sassuolo
Como
Power Score
21.56
30.35
League Position
9
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
Como — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sassuolo Como

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Como

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sassuolo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.67
23.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.00
43.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sassuolo +2.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Como -2.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sassuolo
Como
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sassuolo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sassuolo Como
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sassuolo Como
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sassuolo
Como
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sassuolo
vs
Como
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sassuolo Como
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sassuolo 0.55
Como 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sassuolo Como
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sassuolo 0.01
Como 0.09
Sassuolo
Como
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAS had peak pressure around 61'.
  • COM started the game with stronger pressure.
SAS Pressure COM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAS reached the top pressure at 61' (64.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sassuolo SAS Home
2 matches
Como COM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
0
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Turati
Italy
13 S. Turati
S. Walukiewicz
Poland
6 S. Walukiewicz
J. Idzes
Netherlands
21 J. Idzes
T. Muharemovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
80 T. Muharemovic
W. Coulibaly
France
25 W. Coulibaly
I. Koné
Canada
90 I. Koné
N. Matić
Substitution
Serbia
18 N. Matić
K. Thorstvedt
Norway
42 K. Thorstvedt
C. Volpato
Substitution
Italy
7 C. Volpato
M. N'Zola
Substitution
Angola
8 M. N'Zola
A. Lauriente
France
45 A. Lauriente
Pitch
J. Butez
France
1 J. Butez
A. Moreno Pérez
Spain
18 A. Moreno Pérez
M. Kempf
Germany
2 M. Kempf
J. Naveros
Spain
14 J. Naveros
I. Smolčić
Substitution
Croatia
28 I. Smolčić
M. Caqueret
Substitution
France
6 M. Caqueret
L. Da Cunha
Substitution
France
33 L. Da Cunha
M. Baturina
Substitution
Croatia
20 M. Baturina
N. Paz Martínez
Argentina
10 N. Paz Martínez
A. Diao Diaoune
Substitution
Senegal
38 A. Diao Diaoune
Á. Morata Martín
Spain
7 Á. Morata Martín

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity :
21584
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Francesco Fourneau
Claudio Barone
Giacomo Monaco
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
SAS
36%
COM
64%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 4
22 Dangerous attacks 82
30 Possession 70
5 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
3 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 6
71 Ball Safe 61
3 Injuries 0
24 Dribble Attempts 20
18 Throwins 21
8 Successful Headers 9
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
11 Goal Kicks 7
10 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

62 Attacks 129

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 20
7 Key Passes 10
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 74
173 Successful Passes 482
54 Long Passes 27
234 Passes 527
74 Successful Passes Percentage 91

Defensive

52 Duels Won 47
2 Saves 2
7 Interceptions 5
23 Tackles 21

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 5
6 Total Crosses 43

Discipline

14 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Francesco Fourneau

Starting XI ▼

13
Stefano Turati
Stefano Turati Goalkeeper
6.25
6
Sebastian Walukiewicz
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender
6.67
21
Jay Idzes
Jay Idzes Defender
6.67
25
Woyo Coulibaly
Woyo Coulibaly Defender
6.51
80
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
6.96
18
Nemanja Matic
Nemanja Matic Midfielder
6.82
35
Luca Lipani
Luca Lipani
Midfielder76'
6.55
42
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
6.92
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné Midfielder
6.86
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato Attacker
6.81
20
Alieu Fadera
Alieu Fadera
Attacker64'
6.64
8
M'Bala Nzola
M'Bala Nzola Attacker
6.7
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti
Attacker77'
6.75
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté Attacker
6.97
Referee : Francesco Fourneau

Starting XI ▼

1
Jean Butez
Jean Butez Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Marc Oliver Kempf
Marc Oliver Kempf Defender
6.86
14
Jacobo Ramón
Jacobo Ramón Defender
7.03
18
Alberto Moreno
Alberto Moreno Defender
6.89
28
Ivan Smolcic
Ivan Smolcic Defender
6.89
31
Mërgim Vojvoda
Mërgim Vojvoda
Defender46'
6.8
6
Maxence Caqueret
Maxence Caqueret Midfielder
6.9
23
Máximo Perrone
Máximo Perrone
Midfielder46'
7
10
Nico Paz
Nico Paz Midfielder
7.53
20
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Midfielder
7.13
11
Anastasios Douvikas
Anastasios Douvikas
Attacker46'
6.85
33
Lucas Da Cunha
Lucas Da Cunha Midfielder
7.07
19
Nicolas Kühn
Nicolas Kühn
Attacker72'
6.63
38
Assane Diao
Assane Diao Midfielder
6.74
17
Jesús Rodríguez
Jesús Rodríguez
Attacker60'
6.86
7
Álvaro Morata
Álvaro Morata Attacker
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kristian Thorstvedt
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
82'
79'
Event
Alberto Moreno
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Andrea Pinamonti → M'Bala Nzola
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Luca Lipani → Nemanja Matic
7th Substitution
76'
72'
Event
Nicolas Kühn → Lucas Da Cunha 
6th Substitution
Event
Alieu Fadera → Cristian Volpato
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Cristian Volpato
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
64'
60'
Event
Jesús Rodríguez → Assane Diao 
4th Substitution
Event
Ismaël Koné
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
46'
Event
Anastasios Douvikas  → Martin Baturina
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Máximo Perrone → Maxence Caqueret
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Mërgim Vojvoda → Ivan Smolcic
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Nico Paz
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
M'Bala Nzola
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
44'
Event
Cristian Volpato
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
26'
Event
Álvaro Morata
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
Event
Jacobo Ramón
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a concession by Jay Idzes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Sassuolo winning 2-1 against Como.
90
Update Update
Jesús Rodríguez from Como won a free kick in the attacking zone.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Jacobo Ramón of Como headed the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
90
Update Update
Alieu Fadera fouled a player from Sassuolo.
90
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
88
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Tarik Muharemovic from Sassuolo.
88
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Pinamonti from Sassuolo had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, just missing the goal. The assist came from Tarik Muharemovic after a quick break.
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Marc Oliver Kempf from Como has his left-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
86
Update Update
Luca Lipani from Sassuolo commits a foul.
86
Update Update
Luca Lipani from Sassuolo committed a foul.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo receives a yellow card for a foul.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo.
82
Update Update
Álvaro Morata won a free kick in defense for Como.
81
Update Update
Armand Laurienté from Sassuolo misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box after a free kick, but the ball goes high.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Moreno from Como receives a yellow card for a foul.
79
Update Update
Armand Laurienté from Sassuolo won a free kick in the attacking area.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Andrea Pinamonti replaces M'Bala Nzola.
76
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jay Idzes of Sassuolo.
75
Corner Corner
Como wins a corner after Sebastian Walukiewicz concedes.
75
Update Update
Jay Idzes from Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
73
Attempt Attempt
Máximo Perrone's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
73
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jay Idzes from Sassuolo.
72
Attempt Attempt
Tasos Douvikas's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Mërgim Vojvoda provided the assist with a cross.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Nicolas Kühn replaces Lucas da Cunha.
70
Update Update
Handball by Tasos Douvikas for Como.
69
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo.
68
Attempt Attempt
Nico Paz from Como attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Lucas da Cunha from Como takes a left-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it goes high and wide to the left.
67
Update Update
Alieu Fadera from Sassuolo commits a foul.
67
Update Update
Alberto Moreno of Como won a free kick in an attacking position.
66
Update Update
Nemanja Matic from Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Alieu Fadera replaces Cristian Volpato.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Alieu Fadera replaces Cristian Volpato.
60
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Tarik Muharemovic of Sassuolo headed the ball from the right side of the six-yard box after a corner.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Jesús Rodríguez replaces Assane Diao due to injury.
59
Corner Corner
Sassuolo wins a corner after Máximo Perrone concedes.
58
Update Update
Sebastian Walukiewicz of Sassuolo won a free kick in an attacking position.
58
Update Update
Woyo Coulibaly from Sassuolo won a free kick on the left wing.
57
Corner Corner
Cristian Volpato from Sassuolo attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Jean Butez of Como.
55
Update Update
M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Mërgim Vojvoda from Como won a free kick in defense.
54
Update Update
Woyo Coulibaly of Sassuolo commits a handball.
54
Update Update
Nemanja Matic of Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
52
Attempt Attempt
M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box after a fast break.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo receives a yellow card for a foul.
51
Update Update
Alberto Moreno from Como won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo commits a foul.
48
Update Update
Sebastian Walukiewicz of Sassuolo won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Cristian Volpato from Sassuolo committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Máximo Perrone from Como won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Sassuolo leading Como 2-1.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Como scores to make it 2-1 against Sassuolo. Nico Paz heads the ball into the top left corner from the center of the box, assisted by Ivan Smolcic's cross.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Mërgim Vojvoda replaces Ivan Smolcic.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Máximo Perrone replaces Maxence Caqueret.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Sassuolo leading Como 2-1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Tasos Douvikas replaces Martin Baturina.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sassuolo leads 2-0 against Como. M'Bala Nzola scores for Sassuolo with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Armand Laurienté's through ball after a fast break.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sassuolo leads 1-0 against Como. Cristian Volpato scores for Sassuolo with a left-footed shot from outside the box to the center of the goal, assisted by M'Bala Nzola after a fast break.
41
Corner Corner
Como wins a corner after Woyo Coulibaly concedes.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Assane Diao from Como shoots with his right foot from outside the box but it goes high. The assist was by Alberto Moreno.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a concession by Tarik Muharemovic.
34
Attempt Attempt
Nico Paz's shot from outside the box is blocked. Jacobo Ramón provided the assist.
33
Corner Corner
Sassuolo wins a corner after Jacobo Ramón concedes.
32
Attempt Attempt
Armand Laurienté's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Kristian Thorstvedt provided the assist.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a concession by Jay Idzes.
31
Attempt Attempt
Assane Diao's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Ivan Smolcic.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a concession by Tarik Muharemovic.
28
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Como won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Woyo Coulibaly of Sassuolo.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Álvaro Morata from Como receives a yellow card for a foul.
26
Update Update
M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo won a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Nico Paz from Como takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Stefano Turati from Sassuolo. The assist was provided by Álvaro Morata.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como, conceded by Stefano Turati.
24
Update Update
M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo commits a handball.
16
Corner Corner
Sassuolo wins a corner, conceded by Jean Butez.
16
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Armand Laurienté from Sassuolo takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Jean Butez from Como.
16
Update Update
Foul by Nemanja Matic on Sassuolo.
16
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Como won a free kick in defense.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacobo Ramón from Como receives a yellow card for a foul.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacobo Ramón of Como.
14
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt from Sassuolo won a free kick in an attacking position.
13
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Como won a free kick in defense.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Walukiewicz of Sassuolo.
12
Corner Corner
Woyo Coulibaly of Sassuolo misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left after a corner.
11
Corner Corner
Sassuolo wins a corner after Jean Butez concedes.
9
Update Update
Handball by Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo.
6
Update Update
Assane Diao from Como won a free kick on the right wing.
5
Corner Corner
Nico Paz from Como missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box over the goal. The assist came from Maxence Caqueret, who provided a cross after a corner.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a concession by Jay Idzes.
1
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Thorstvedt's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from M'Bala Nzola.
1
Corner Corner
Sassuolo wins a corner after Jacobo Ramón concedes.

CONCLUSION

Sassuolo's victory highlights their defensive solidity and counter-attacking prowess against a possession-dominant Como side that created chances but lacked finishing edge. Holding 70% possession yielded Como no goals after halftime, underscoring Sassuolo's organization under pressure. The minimal deviation and market alignment affirm the result's rationality within frameworks, despite Como's favoritism. Absent xG metrics limit chance evaluation, yet raw stats reveal Sassuolo's efficiency in limited touches. This outcome reinforces underdogs' potential through discipline, setting a tactical benchmark for low-possession triumphs.

Sassuolo vs Como preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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