Samsunspor vs Konyaspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadyum Samsun Sun, 5 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
Samsunspor Samsunspor
2 – 2
Konyaspor KON
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
Carlo Holse - 72', 42'
Goal
|
Goal
Blaz Kramer - 78'
Enis Bardhi - 23' (P)
|
Second yellow card Adamo Nagalo 90'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, ending in a tightly contested 2-2 draw between Samsunspor and Konyaspor. The teams were deadlocked at 1-1 at half-time before adding a goal each in the second half. Samsunspor largely controlled the tempo throughout the contest, commanding 63% of the possession compared to Konyaspor's 37%, though expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to measure exact chance quality. Heading into the game, Samsunspor were viewed as the stronger team, favored with a 44.7% pre-match win probability. A draw sat at 28.9%, while an away victory was priced at 26.4%. Because of this, the stalemate represents a significant deviation from expectations, negatively impacting the favored home side, Samsunspor. Ultimately, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market forecast. The flow of the match was notably impacted by a red card shown to Konyaspor, creating a noticeable red card distortion in the second half. Despite this disciplinary disadvantage, the visitors managed to hold on to secure a road point. Overall, the attacking efficiency for both sides remained in line with expectations given the dynamic circumstances of the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Meler

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Şener

1st Assistant

M. Aldemir

4th Official

G. Baltacı

2nd Assistant

Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
VS
Konyaspor İ. Palut
İ. Palut
1.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 D
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 61 L
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 65 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 66 W
Kasımpaşa Rank: 65 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 L
Galatasaray Rank: 88 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Samsunspor
44.69%
Draw
28.87%
Away Konyaspor
26.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.97
68.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Samsunspor
Konyaspor
Power Score
70.97
68.22
League Position
7
11
Global Rank
166
228

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Konyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Samsunspor Konyaspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Konyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Konyaspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.81
26.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.89
33.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Samsunspor +0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Konyaspor -0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Konyaspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Konyaspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Samsunspor Konyaspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Samsunspor Konyaspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Konyaspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Samsunspor
vs
Konyaspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Samsunspor Konyaspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Samsunspor 0.27
Konyaspor 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Samsunspor Konyaspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Samsunspor 0.11
Konyaspor 0.03
Samsunspor
Konyaspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Samsunspor Samsunspor Home
7 matches
Konyaspor KON Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
8
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:01:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Kocuk
Turkey
1 O. Kocuk
Z. Yavru
Substitution
Turkey
18 Z. Yavru
T. Borevković
Croatia
24 T. Borevković
R. van Drongelen
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
S. Gönül
Turkey
28 S. Gönül
A. Makoumbou
France
29 A. Makoumbou
Y. Kayan
Substitution
Turkey
20 Y. Kayan
T. Coulibaly
Substitution
France
70 T. Coulibaly
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
E. Kılınç
Substitution
Turkey
11 E. Kılınç
M. Mouandilmadji
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji
Pitch
B. Güngördü
Turkey
13 B. Güngördü
B. Kutlu
Turkey
18 B. Kutlu
A. Demirbağ
Turkey
4 A. Demirbağ
A. Nagalo
Ivory Coast
39 A. Nagalo
Y. Andzouana
DR Congo
23 Y. Andzouana
M. Jevtović
Substitution
Serbia
16 M. Jevtović
M. Ibrahimoglu
Austria
77 M. Ibrahimoglu
K. Olaigbe
Substitution
Belgium
70 K. Olaigbe
E. Bardhi
Substitution
Macedonia
10 E. Bardhi
D. Türüç
Substitution
Turkey
9 D. Türüç
J. Muleka
Substitution
DR Congo
40 J. Muleka

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 05, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadyum Samsun
Capacity :
33919
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Halil Umut Meler
Murat Şener
M. Aldemir
Gökmen Baltacı

Statistics

Possession
Samsunspor
59%
KON
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
18 Shots 9
66 Dangerous attacks 19
63 Possession 37
8 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
4 Goal Attempts 3
1 Injuries 1
71 Ball Safe 78
2 Assists 0
13 Dribble Attempts 8
9 Successful Dribbles 6
16 Throwins 17
4 Goal Kicks 7
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
10 Successful Headers 14
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 2
106 Attacks 56

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 33
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
35 Long Passes 56
490 Passes 296
89 Successful Passes Percentage 76
437 Successful Passes 225
15 Key Passes 5

Defensive

0 Saves 5
5 Tackles 14
37 Duels Won 45
7 Interceptions 7

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
29 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

12 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Halil Umut Meler

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
18
Zeki Yavru
Zeki Yavru Defender
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes
Defender73'
24
Toni Borevković
Toni Borevković Defender
28
Soner Gönül
Soner Gönül Defender
11
Emre Kılınç
Emre Kılınç Midfielder
10
Olivier Ntcham
Olivier Ntcham
Midfielder85'
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Midfielder
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye
Attacker85'
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
2
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Midfielder
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly Midfielder
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan
Attacker73'
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
Referee : Halil Umut Meler

Starting XI ▼

13
Bahadır Güngördü
Bahadır Güngördü Goalkeeper
4
Adil Demirbağ
Adil Demirbağ Defender
18
Berkan Kutlu
Berkan Kutlu Defender
23
Yhoan Andzouana
Yhoan Andzouana Defender
39
Adamo Nagalo
Adamo Nagalo Defender
9
Deniz Türüç
Deniz Türüç Midfielder
5
Uğurcan Yazğılı
Uğurcan Yazğılı
Defender87'
10
Enis Bardhi
Enis Bardhi Midfielder
21
Jin-ho Jo
Jin-ho Jo
Midfielder86'
16
Marko Jevtovic
Marko Jevtovic Midfielder
42
Morten Bjørlo
Morten Bjørlo
Midfielder76'
70
Kazeem Olaigbe
Kazeem Olaigbe Midfielder
17
Diogo Gonçalves
Diogo Gonçalves
Midfielder61'
77
Melih İbrahimoğlu
Melih İbrahimoğlu Midfielder
40
Jackson Muleka
Jackson Muleka Attacker
99
Blaz Kramer
Blaz Kramer
Attacker61'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Olivier Ntcham
GoalkeeperSave
90+3'
90'
Event
Adamo Nagalo
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
87'
Event
Uğurcan Yazğılı → Deniz Türüç
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Jin-ho Jo → Enis Bardhi
8th Substitution
Event
Olivier Ntcham → Emre Kılınç
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Cherif Ndiaye → Yalçın Kayan
6th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Adamo Nagalo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Blaz Kramer
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Morten Bjørlo → Marko Jevtovic
5th Substitution
Event
Elayis Tavsan → Tanguy Coulibaly
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Joe Mendes → Zeki Yavru
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Carlo Holse
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
72'
Event
Emre Kılınç
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
61'
Event
Blaz Kramer → Jackson Muleka
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Diogo Gonçalves → Kazeem Olaigbe
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Carlo Holse
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
Event
Carlo Holse
Penalty disallowed
33'
29'
Event
Deniz Türüç
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Enis Bardhi
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
10'
Event
Marko Jevtovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Samsunspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Samsunspor vs Konyaspor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.