Samsunspor vs Kayserispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadyum Samsun Sun, 15 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Samsunspor Samsunspor
2 Winner 1
Kayserispor KAY
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 5:00 PM
Logi Tómasson - 90+2'
Antoine Makoumbou - 31'
Goal
|
Goal
Toni Borevković - 46' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Samsunspor 2–1 Kayserispor. The result saw Samsunspor take the points. Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kayatepe

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Birinci

1st Assistant

M. Temel

2nd Assistant

Y. Kendirciler

4th Official

Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
VS
Kayserispor J. Storbæk
J. Storbæk
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: 62 L
Trabzonspor Rank: 77 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 64 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 68 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 67 D
Göztepe Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Trabzonspor Rank: 78 L
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 62 W
Göztepe Rank: 75 D
Kocaelispor Rank: 68 L
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Samsunspor
48.08%
Draw
27.11%
Away Kayserispor
24.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.8
62.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Samsunspor
Kayserispor
Power Score
69.8
62.66
League Position
7
17
Global Rank
185
374

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Samsunspor Kayserispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kayserispor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.82
37.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.42
30.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Samsunspor -0.67 Efficiency Index
vs
Kayserispor +0.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Kayserispor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kayserispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Samsunspor Kayserispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Samsunspor Kayserispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Kayserispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Samsunspor Samsunspor Home
5 matches
Kayserispor KAY Away
Match Record
4
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
4
Goals
9
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
9
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:46:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
İ. Eğribayat
Turkey
71 İ. Eğribayat
Z. Yavru
Substitution
Turkey
18 (C) Z. Yavru
T. Borevković
Croatia
24 T. Borevković
Ľ. Šatka
Slovakia
37 Ľ. Šatka
L. Tómasson
Iceland
17 L. Tómasson
C. Yüksel
Turkey
5 C. Yüksel
J. Ntcham
Substitution
France
10 J. Ntcham
E. Tavsan
Substitution
Netherlands
7 E. Tavsan
Y. Kayan
Substitution
Turkey
20 Y. Kayan
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
M. Mouandilmadji
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji
Pitch
B. Bayazit
Netherlands
25 B. Bayazit
R. Civelek
Turkey
28 R. Civelek
S. Denswil
Suriname
4 S. Denswil
S. Güler
Germany
6 S. Güler
J. Brenet
Netherlands
30 J. Brenet
M. Nunes Cardoso
Portugal
7 (C) M. Nunes Cardoso
F. Soyalp
Turkey
33 F. Soyalp
L. Bénes
Substitution
Slovakia
8 L. Bénes
D. Makarov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Makarov
T. Sarıarslan
Substitution
Turkey
99 T. Sarıarslan
G. Onugkha
Substitution
Russia
9 G. Onugkha

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium :
Stadyum Samsun
Capacity :
33919
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bahtiyar Birinci
Murat Temel
Yusuf Adnan Kendirciler
Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Statistics

Possession
Samsunspor
65%
KAY
35%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 7
53 Dangerous attacks 27
67 Possession 33
7 Corners 8
14 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 4
24 Dribble Attempts 10
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 10
26 Throwins 12
15 Successful Dribbles 1
16 Successful Headers 16
9 Goal Kicks 11
99 Ball Safe 82
3 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
11 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0
113 Attacks 83

Possession

32 Successful Long Passes 22
86 Successful Passes Percentage 68
523 Passes 254
52 Long Passes 55
449 Successful Passes 173
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
14 Key Passes 6

Defensive

2 Saves 6
12 Interceptions 10
17 Tackles 19

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 14
8 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

71
İrfan Can Eğribayat
İrfan Can Eğribayat Goalkeeper
7.03
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Defender
7.37
18
Zeki Yavru
Zeki Yavru (C) Defender
6.69
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes
Defender73'
7.14
24
Toni Borevković
Toni Borevković Defender
6.92
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka Defender
7.44
5
Celil Yüksel
Celil Yüksel Midfielder
7.38
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan Midfielder
7.12
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly
Attacker73'
6.62
10
Olivier Ntcham
Olivier Ntcham Midfielder
6.5
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou
Midfielder4'
8.31
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Midfielder
6.87
11
Emre Kılınç
Emre Kılınç
Midfielder73'
6.51
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
7.08
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
5.95
Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

25
Bilal Bayazıt
Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper
7.36
4
Stefano Denswil
Stefano Denswil Defender
6.39
6
Semih Güler
Semih Güler Defender
7.33
28
Ramazan Civelek
Ramazan Civelek Defender
6.94
30
Joshua Brenet
Joshua Brenet Defender
6.06
7
Miguel Cardoso
Miguel Cardoso (C) Midfielder
6.81
8
László Bénes
László Bénes Midfielder
6.65
61
Görkem Sağlam
Görkem Sağlam
Midfielder77'
6.43
18
Denis Makarov
Denis Makarov Midfielder
6.26
63
Fedor Chalov
Fedor Chalov
Attacker46'
6.59
33
Furkan Soyalp
Furkan Soyalp Midfielder
7.18
9
German Onugkha
German Onugkha Attacker
6.5
22
Indrit Tuci
Indrit Tuci
Attacker64'
6.57
99
Talha Sarıarslan
Talha Sarıarslan Attacker
6.47
10
João Mendes
João Mendes
Midfielder46'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Logi Tómasson
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
77'
Event
Görkem Sağlam → László Bénes
8th Substitution
Event
Logi Tómasson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
74'
Event
Joe Mendes → Zeki Yavru
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Tanguy Coulibaly → Elayis Tavsan
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Emre Kılınç → Yalçın Kayan
6th Substitution
73'
64'
Event
Indrit Tuci → German Onugkha
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Fedor Chalov → Denis Makarov
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
João Mendes → Talha Sarıarslan
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Toni Borevković
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Antoine Makoumbou
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
Event
Antoine Makoumbou → Olivier Ntcham
1st Substitution
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Samsunspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Samsunspor vs Kayserispor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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