Samsunspor vs Göztepe Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Stadyum Samsun Sat, 16 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Samsunspor Samsunspor
3 Winner 0
Göztepe GOZ
Full Time Sat, 16 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Marius Mouandilmadji - 89'
Elayis Tavsan - 85'
Tanguy Coulibaly - 36'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Héliton 81'

CONTEXT

Samsunspor defeated Goztepe 3-0 in a home fixture that saw the hosts lead 1-0 at halftime. Samsunspor controlled 62 percent of possession while Goztepe finished with one player fewer after receiving a red card. Expected goals stood at 2.07 for the home side and 2.44 for the visitors, yet the final score favored Samsunspor. The stronger team according to pre-match assessment claimed the victory despite the xG differential of minus 0.37. Second-half adjustments centered on the red card distortion that altered the flow of play. The outcome proved inconsistent with underlying metrics but delivered a clear result for the home side. Samsunspor converted their opportunities efficiently after the break to secure the clean sheet.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor recorded a significant 68.2 percent deviation from expected patterns in the victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the overall performance level for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not consistent with the xG values of 2.07 to 2.44.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Samsunspor exceeded xG expectations by scoring three goals against higher visitor projections.
  • Event impact: The away red card shaped the second half and contributed to the 3-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected game flow and favored the home side after halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

?. Öztürk

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Aydın

1st Assistant

Türkiye

Y. Susuz

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

M. Metoğlu

4th Official

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 26.26
Yellow cards / match 4.74
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.39
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
VS
Göztepe S. Stoilov
S. Stoilov
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.57
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 76 L
Galatasaray Rank: 87 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 W
Eyüpspor Rank: 66 W
Rizespor Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 W
Trabzonspor Rank: 79 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 63 D
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 D
Galatasaray Rank: 85 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Samsunspor
31.78%
Draw
26.13%
Away Göztepe
42.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
Samsunspor
-66.06%
Draw
+24.21%
Göztepe
+41.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.75
72.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Samsunspor
Göztepe
Power Score
73.75
72.69
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
136
144

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Göztepe — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Samsunspor Göztepe

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Göztepe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Göztepe
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.60
64.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
64.87
24.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Samsunspor -3.90 Efficiency Index
vs
Göztepe +3.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Göztepe
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Samsunspor
vs
Göztepe
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Samsunspor Göztepe
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Samsunspor Göztepe
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Samsunspor
Göztepe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Samsunspor
vs
Göztepe
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Samsunspor Göztepe
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Samsunspor 0.56
Göztepe 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Samsunspor Göztepe
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Samsunspor 0.00
Göztepe 0.12
Samsunspor
Göztepe
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GOZ had peak pressure around 69'.
  • Samsunspor started the game with stronger pressure.
Samsunspor Pressure GOZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GOZ reached the top pressure at 69' (67.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Samsunspor Samsunspor Home
3 matches
Göztepe GOZ Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:57:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
O. Kocuk
Türkiye
1 O. Kocuk
Z. Yavru
Substitution
Türkiye
18 (C) Z. Yavru
R. van Drongelen
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
A. Badra Diabaté
Substitution
Ivory Coast
15 A. Badra Diabaté
S. Gönül
Substitution
Türkiye
28 S. Gönül
Y. Kayan
Türkiye
20 Y. Kayan
T. Coulibaly
France
70 T. Coulibaly
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
J. Ntcham
Substitution
France
10 J. Ntcham
E. Tavsan
Substitution
Netherlands
7 E. Tavsan
M. Mouandilmadji
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji
Pitch
M. Lis
Poland
1 (C) M. Lis
M. Mputu
Cameroon
26 M. Mputu
H. dos Santos
Brazil
5 H. dos Santos
T. Altıkardeş
Substitution
Türkiye
4 T. Altıkardeş
M. Cherni
Substitution
France
15 M. Cherni
N. Dismas
Tanzania
20 N. Dismas
A. Dennis
Substitution
Nigeria
30 A. Dennis
A. Kurtulan
Türkiye
2 A. Kurtulan
A. Antunes
Substitution
Switzerland
8 A. Antunes
J. de Carvalho Costa
Substitution
Brazil
39 J. de Carvalho Costa
Juan
Brazil
9 Juan

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadyum Samsun
Capacity :
33919
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ümit Öztürk
Ömer Lütfü Aydın
Yusuf Susuz
Muhammet Ali Metoğlu

Statistics

Possession
Samsunspor
56%
GOZ
44%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 10
25 Dangerous attacks 53
62 Possession 38
0 Corners 4
18 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

15 Throwins 30
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
3 Successful Dribbles 10
12 Dribble Attempts 21
16 Successful Headers 11
12 Goal Kicks 4
68 Ball Safe 51
3 Assists 0
12 Goal Attempts 12
1 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 89
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

309 Successful Passes 158
390 Passes 226
61 Long Passes 48
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
79 Successful Passes Percentage 70
28 Successful Long Passes 20
10 Key Passes 10

Defensive

17 Tackles 16
13 Interceptions 9
53 Duels Won 47
5 Saves 6

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 18
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Ümit Öztürk

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
8.07
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
7.69
15
Ali Badra Diabaté
Ali Badra Diabaté Defender
7.12
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka
Defender60'
6.5
18
Zeki Yavru
Zeki Yavru (C) Defender
7.12
23
Enes Albak
Enes Albak
Defender70'
6.28
28
Soner Gönül
Soner Gönül Defender
6.49
55
Yunus Emre Çift
Yunus Emre Çift
Defender70'
6.48
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan Midfielder
8.17
77
Afonso Sousa
Afonso Sousa
Midfielder90'
6.42
10
Olivier Ntcham
Olivier Ntcham Midfielder
6.41
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou
Midfielder60'
6.75
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Midfielder
6.77
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
7.49
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly Midfielder
7.35
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
8.63
Referee : Ümit Öztürk

Starting XI ▼

1
Mateusz Lis
Mateusz Lis (C) Goalkeeper
7.23
4
Taha Altıkardeş
Taha Altıkardeş Defender
6.85
6
M. Mohammed
M. Mohammed
Midfielder86'
5
Héliton
Héliton Defender
6.07
26
Malcom Bokele
Malcom Bokele Defender
5.75
2
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Arda Okan Kurtulan Midfielder
6.34
15
Amin Cherni
Amin Cherni Midfielder
6.92
77
Ogün Bayrak
Ogün Bayrak
Defender86'
6.22
20
Novatus Miroshi
Novatus Miroshi Midfielder
6.86
30
Anthony Dennis
Anthony Dennis Midfielder
6.59
19
Jeh
Jeh
Attacker70'
6.56
8
Alexis Antunes
Alexis Antunes Attacker
6.99
22
Uğur Kaan Yıldız
Uğur Kaan Yıldız
Defender78'
6.08
9
Juan
Juan Attacker
6.66
39
Janderson
Janderson Attacker
6.81
14
Guilherme Luiz
Guilherme Luiz
Attacker78'
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Afonso Sousa → Elayis Tavsan
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
89'
86'
Event
Ogün Bayrak → Amin Cherni
8th Substitution
86'
Event
M. Mohammed → Taha Altıkardeş
9th Substitution
Event
Elayis Tavsan
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
81'
Event
Héliton
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
79'
Event
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Uğur Kaan Yıldız → Alexis Antunes
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Guilherme Luiz → Janderson
6th Substitution
Event
Rick van Drongelen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Yunus Emre Çift → Soner Gönül
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Enes Albak → Zeki Yavru
3rd Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Jeh → Anthony Dennis
5th Substitution
Event
Antoine Makoumbou
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
61'
61'
Event
Anthony Dennis
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Lubomir Satka → Ali Badra Diabaté
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Antoine Makoumbou → Olivier Ntcham
1st Substitution
60'
51'
Event
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Goal disallowed
1ST-HALF
Event
Tanguy Coulibaly
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
36'
32'
Event
Juan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ali Badra Diabaté
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Afonso Sousa replaces Elayis Tavsan.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tanguy Coulibaly takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tanguy Coulibaly takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Guilherme Luiz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tanguy Coulibaly takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji scores with a right-footed shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Ugur Kaan Yildiz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Musah Mohammed takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Substitution Substitution
Ogun Bayrak is substituted for Amine Cherni.
86
Substitution Substitution
Musah Mohammed is substituted for Taha Altikardes.
85
Attempt Attempt
Elayis Tavsan scores with a left-footed shot.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Elayis Tavsan scores, making it 2-0.
84
Attempt Attempt
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Holse takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Heliton Jorge Tito dos Santos.
80
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Holse takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Arda Kurtulan receives a yellow card.
78
Update Update
Ugur Kaan Yildiz replaces Alexis Antunes.
78
Update Update
Guilherme Luiz is on, and Janderson de Carvalho Costa is off.
70
Update Update
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos comes on for Anthony Dennis.
70
Update Update
Enes Albak replaces Zeki Yavru.
70
Update Update
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos comes on for Anthony Dennis.
67
Attempt Attempt
Malcom Bokele Mputu attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Antunes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexis Antunes with his right foot, but it misses the target.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antoine Makoumbou receives a yellow card.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anthony Dennis receives a yellow card.
60
Update Update
Antoine Makoumbou comes on for Olivier Ntcham.
60
Update Update
Lubomir Satka comes on for Ali Badra Diabbate.
58
Attempt Attempt
Novatus Miroshi's left-footed shot is saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Antunes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal due to a handball by Juan.
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Juan takes a right-footed shot.
49
Attempt Attempt
Arda Kurtulan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Janderson de Carvalho Costa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Juan's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Juan takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Taha Altikardes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Ntcham takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Update Update
Heliton Jorge Tito dos Santos attempts a header but misses.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tanguy Coulibaly scores, making it 1-0.
36
Attempt Attempt
Tanguy Coulibaly scores with a left-footed shot.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Juan.
30
Attempt Attempt
Yalcin Kayan's left-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Arda Kurtulan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Janderson de Carvalho Costa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Antunes takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Janderson de Carvalho Costa takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Malcom Bokele Mputu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Taha Altikardes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Elayis Tavsan takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Samsunspor completed a controlled performance to win 3-0 after leading 1-0 at the interval. The red card issued to Goztepe disrupted their structure and allowed the hosts to manage the game effectively with 62 percent possession. Although Goztepe posted higher expected goals, Samsunspor capitalized on key moments to finish with a clean sheet. The result highlighted a clear efficiency in front of goal once numerical superiority was established. Second-half adjustments proved decisive in maintaining the advantage and preventing any comeback. Samsunspor demonstrated resilience and tactical discipline throughout the contest. This victory reinforces their position as the stronger side in the fixture while exposing areas for Goztepe to address in future matches.

Samsunspor vs Göztepe preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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