Samsunspor vs Galatasaray Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Stadyum Samsun Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Samsunspor Samsunspor
4 Winner 1
Galatasaray GAL
Full Time Sat, 2 May 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Cherif Ndiaye - 82', 57'
Marius Mouandilmadji - 71', 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Yunus Akgün - 9'
|
Red Card Günay Güvenç 63'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Samsunspor 4–1 Galatasaray. The result saw Samsunspor take the points. Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 55%–45%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor delivered a significant 78.9% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations undetermined due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: Galatasaray's red card profoundly influenced second-half proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Away team's red card caused clear distortion in second-half structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Coşkunses

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Duran

1st Assistant

H. Aylak

2nd Assistant

A. Akarsu

4th Official

Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
VS
Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.25
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 W
Eyüpspor Rank: 62 W
Rizespor Rank: 67 L
Konyaspor Rank: 70 D
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 63 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 D
Göztepe Rank: 73 W
Trabzonspor Rank: 79 L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 76 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Samsunspor
21.13%
Draw
22.55%
Away Galatasaray
56.32%

Movement

Changes since opening
Samsunspor
-73.53%
Draw
+18.39%
Galatasaray
+55.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.75
87.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Samsunspor
Galatasaray
Power Score
71.75
87.44
League Position
7
1
Global Rank
157
20

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Samsunspor Galatasaray

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Galatasaray

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Samsunspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Samsunspor Galatasaray
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Samsunspor Galatasaray
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Samsunspor
Galatasaray
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Samsunspor
vs
Galatasaray
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Samsunspor Galatasaray
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Samsunspor 0.00
Galatasaray 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Samsunspor Galatasaray
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Samsunspor 0.00
Galatasaray 0.00
Samsunspor
Galatasaray
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAL had peak pressure around 60'.
  • Samsunspor started the game with stronger pressure.
Samsunspor Pressure GAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAL reached the top pressure at 60' (72.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Samsunspor Samsunspor Home
9 matches
Galatasaray GAL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
9
0
Draws
0
9
Losses
0
Goals
12
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
12
-14
Goal Difference
+14

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T16:30:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Kocuk
Türkiye
1 O. Kocuk
J. Wooding Mendes
Substitution
Sweden
2 J. Wooding Mendes
Ľ. Šatka
Slovakia
37 Ľ. Šatka
R. van Drongelen
Substitution
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
L. Tómasson
Iceland
17 L. Tómasson
A. Makoumbou
France
29 A. Makoumbou
Y. Kayan
Substitution
Türkiye
20 Y. Kayan
T. Coulibaly
Substitution
France
70 T. Coulibaly
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
P. Ndiaye
Senegal
19 P. Ndiaye
M. Mouandilmadji
Substitution
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji
Pitch
G. Güvenc
Germany
19 G. Güvenc
I. Jakobs
Senegal
4 I. Jakobs
A. Bardakcı
Substitution
Türkiye
42 A. Bardakcı
D. Sánchez Mina
Colombia
6 D. Sánchez Mina
R. Sallai
Substitution
Hungary
7 R. Sallai
M. Lemina
Gabon
99 M. Lemina
L. Torreira Di Pascua
Substitution
Uruguay
34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
B. Yılmaz
Substitution
Türkiye
53 B. Yılmaz
Y. Akgün
Türkiye
11 Y. Akgün
L. Sané
Substitution
Germany
10 L. Sané
V. Osimhen
Nigeria
45 V. Osimhen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadyum Samsun
Capacity :
33919
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Reşat Onur Coşkunses
Bersan Duran
H. Aylak
Alper Akarsu

Statistics

Possession
Samsunspor
55%
GAL
45%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
13 Shots 13
23 Dangerous attacks 26
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
12 Goal Attempts 5
0 Injuries 4
74 Ball Safe 76
5 Substitutions 5
1 Goal Kicks 9
12 Dribble Attempts 10
3 Assists 1
6 Successful Headers 8
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
15 Throwins 12
8 Successful Dribbles 2

Attacking

70 Attacks 69
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 18
87 Successful Passes Percentage 79
396 Passes 318
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
343 Successful Passes 251
39 Long Passes 45
8 Key Passes 8

Defensive

17 Tackles 9
2 Saves 4
41 Duels Won 33
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 16
0 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

7 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Reşat Onur Coşkunses

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
6.71
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Defender
6.46
18
Zeki Yavru
Zeki Yavru
Defender87'
6.82
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
7.05
15
Ali Badra Diabaté
Ali Badra Diabaté
Defender90+1'
7.77
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Defender
6.85
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka Defender
6.75
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye Midfielder
2
6.85
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Midfielder
6.73
55
Yunus Emre Çift
Yunus Emre Çift
Defender87'
6.69
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
7.11
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Midfielder
6.9
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly Midfielder
6.67
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan
Attacker72'
6.84
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
2
6.71
28
Soner Gönül
Soner Gönül
Defender90+1'
6.68
Referee : Reşat Onur Coşkunses

Starting XI ▼

19
Günay Güvenç
Günay Güvenç Goalkeeper
6.9
4
Ismail Jakobs
Ismail Jakobs Defender
6.71
6
Davinson Sánchez
Davinson Sánchez Defender
7.01
7
Roland Sallai
Roland Sallai Defender
7.11
93
Sacha Boey
Sacha Boey
Defender84'
6.74
42
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender
7.07
90
Wilfried Singo
Wilfried Singo
Defender74'
6.81
10
Leroy Sané
Leroy Sané Midfielder
7.29
12
Batuhan Şen
Batuhan Şen
Goalkeeper66'
6.87
11
Yunus Akgün
Yunus Akgün Midfielder
7.2
34
Lucas Torreira
Lucas Torreira Midfielder
7.08
20
İlkay Gündoğan
İlkay Gündoğan
Midfielder46'
7.06
53
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Barış Alper Yılmaz Midfielder
7.25
77
Noa Lang
Noa Lang
Attacker74'
6.97
99
Mario Lemina
Mario Lemina Midfielder
6.93
45
Victor Osimhen
Victor Osimhen Attacker
7.36

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ali Badra Diabaté → Rick van Drongelen
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Soner Gönül → Marius Mouandilmadji
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Yunus Emre Çift → Yalçın Kayan
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Zeki Yavru → Joe Mendes
8th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Sacha Boey → Roland Sallai
6th Substitution
Event
Cherif Ndiaye
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
82'
Event
Yalçın Kayan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
74'
Event
Noa Lang → Barış Alper Yılmaz
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Wilfried Singo → Abdülkerim Bardakcı
5th Substitution
Event
Elayis Tavsan → Tanguy Coulibaly
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
71'
66'
Event
Batuhan Şen → Leroy Sané
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Günay Güvenç
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
Event
Cherif Ndiaye
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
57'
46'
Event
İlkay Gündoğan → Lucas Torreira
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Soner Gönül
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
34'
Event
Tanguy Coulibaly
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
22'
9'
Event
Yunus Akgün
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Soner Gonul is substituted for Marius Mouandilmadji.
90
Attempt Attempt
Elayis Tavsan takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Ali Badra Diabbate replaces Rick van Drongelen.
88
Update Update
Sacha Boey's header is blocked.
87
Update Update
Zeki Yavru comes on for Josafat Mendes.
87
Substitution Substitution
Yunus Cift is substituted for Yalcin Kayan.
84
Update Update
Sacha Boey comes on for Roland Sallai.
82
Attempt Attempt
Elayis Tavsan takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Cherif Ndiaye scores with a left-footed shot.
82
Update Update
Goal! Cherif Ndiaye scores, making it 4-1.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yalcin Kayan receives a yellow card.
74
Update Update
Noa Lang replaces Baris Yilmaz.
74
Update Update
Wilfried Stephane Singo comes on for Abdulkerim Bardakci.
72
Update Update
Elayis Tavsan comes on for Tanguy Coulibaly.
71
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji scores with a right-footed shot.
68
Attempt Attempt
Josafat Mendes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Holse takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Josafat Mendes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Batuhan Ahmet Sen replaces Leroy Sane.
63
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Gunay Guvenc.
61
Attempt Attempt
Tanguy Coulibaly attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Ismail Jakobs takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Leroy Sane takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
57
Attempt Attempt
Cherif Ndiaye scores with a right-footed shot.
56
Attempt Attempt
Victor James Osimhen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Roland Sallai takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Roland Sallai's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Abdulkerim Bardakci's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Ilkay Gundogan comes on for Lucas Torreira.
46
Attempt Attempt
Victor James Osimhen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Cherif Ndiaye takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Soner Gonul receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Leroy Sane takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tanguy Coulibaly receives a yellow card.
22
Update Update
Goal! Marius Mouandilmadji scores, making it 1-1.
22
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji scores with a right-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji scores with a right-footed shot.
9
Update Update
Goal! Yunus Akgun scores to make it 1-0.
9
Attempt Attempt
Yunus Akgun takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
7
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Yunus Akgun takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Samsunspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Samsunspor vs Galatasaray preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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