Sampdoria vs Südtirol Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Sampdoria SAM
1 Winner 0
Südtirol SUD
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Oliver Abildgaard - 31'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Sampdoria claimed a 1-0 home win against Südtirol, establishing a 1-0 lead by halftime that they preserved through a controlled second half. The hosts held 53% possession to the visitors' 47%, aligning with their designation as the stronger team. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half adjustments occurred. This outcome demonstrated a moderate 7.7% structural deviation favoring Sampdoria, with efficiency levels in line with expectations. Market alignment held true, reflecting pre-match assessments. Lacking xG data, analysis focuses on possession dominance and scoreline progression, where Sampdoria's early goal proved decisive in stifling Südtirol's attempts to equalize. The visitors showed defensive solidity but struggled to convert limited chances.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sampdoria's 1-0 win featured a moderate 7.7% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both Sampdoria and Südtirol.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome consistency with xG.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or other events significantly altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Marchetti

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Di Giacinto

1st Assistant

A. Bianchini

4th Official

Stefano Galimberti

2nd Assistant

Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
VS
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 52 D
Monza Rank: 65 L
Pescara Rank: 49 W
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Avellino Rank: 53 W
Carrarese Rank: 53 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Spezia Rank: 49 L
Modena Rank: 57 D
Cesena Rank: 53 D
Frosinone Rank: 68 L
Avellino Rank: 53 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sampdoria
92.34%
Draw
7.39%
Away Südtirol
0.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.31
51.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sampdoria
Südtirol
Power Score
53.31
51.1
League Position
12
15
Global Rank
683
749

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Südtirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Südtirol
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.11
20.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
18.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sampdoria -0.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Südtirol +0.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Südtirol
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Südtirol
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sampdoria Südtirol
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sampdoria Südtirol
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Südtirol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sampdoria
vs
Südtirol
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sampdoria Südtirol
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sampdoria 0.25
Südtirol 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sampdoria Südtirol
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sampdoria 0.00
Südtirol 0.03
Sampdoria
Südtirol
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAM had peak pressure around 12'.
  • SAM started the game with stronger pressure.
SAM Pressure SUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAM reached the top pressure at 12' (87.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home
6 matches
Südtirol SUD Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
5
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:01:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
A. Di Pardo
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
M. Palma
Substitution
Italy
13 M. Palma
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
S. Giordano
Italy
21 S. Giordano
L. Henderson
Substitution
Scotland
16 L. Henderson
M. Ricci
Italy
8 M. Ricci
O. Abildgaard
Denmark
28 O. Abildgaard
T. Begić
Substitution
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
M. Brunori Sandri
Substitution
Italy
99 M. Brunori Sandri
L. Cherubini
Substitution
Italy
10 L. Cherubini
Pitch
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
S. Davì
Italy
24 S. Davì
H. El Kaouakibi
Substitution
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
N. Pietrangeli
Italy
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
K. Zedadka
Substitution
France
7 K. Zedadka
S. Tronchin
Substitution
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
F. Tait
Italy
21 F. Tait
S. Molina
Substitution
Italy
79 S. Molina
E. Pecorino
Italy
9 E. Pecorino
S. Merkaj
Substitution
Albania
33 S. Merkaj

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity :
33205
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giuseppe Di Giacinto
Andrea Bianchini
Stefano Galimberti
Matteo Marchetti

Statistics

Possession
SAM
50%
SUD
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 5
32 Dangerous attacks 28
53 Possession 47
4 Corners 2
21 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 6
1 Assists 0
22 Throwins 28
13 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
1 Successful Dribbles 6
8 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Goal Attempts 8
75 Ball Safe 68
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

54 Attacks 54
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
6 Key Passes 7
70 Long Passes 82
27 Successful Long Passes 29
258 Successful Passes 211
363 Passes 328
71 Successful Passes Percentage 64

Defensive

7 Interceptions 12
52 Duels Won 53
7 Tackles 13
3 Saves 3

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

15 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
6.73
13
Matteo Palma
Matteo Palma Defender
6.92
17
Dennis Hadzikadunic
Dennis Hadzikadunic
Defender69'
6.79
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Defender
6.72
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Defender
6.96
8
Matteo Ricci
Matteo Ricci Midfielder
6.75
16
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Midfielder
6.81
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti
Midfielder74'
6.75
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Midfielder
6.92
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini Attacker
6.9
7
Manuel Cicconi
Manuel Cicconi
Midfielder69'
6.97
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Attacker
6.89
77
Nicholas Pierini
Nicholas Pierini
Attacker90+2'
7.13
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Attacker
6.84
9
Massimo Coda
Massimo Coda
Attacker90+1'
6.84
Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
6.74
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Defender
6.5
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi Defender
6.62
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
6.54
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Defender
6.88
23
Federico Davi
Federico Davi
Defender77'
6.52
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
6.65
99
Mike van Dijk
Mike van Dijk
Midfielder61'
6.58
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
6.77
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder61'
6.52
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Midfielder
6.65
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
6.93
90
Raphael Odogwu
Raphael Odogwu
Attacker82'
6.79
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
6.93
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.65
11
Riccardo Tonin
Riccardo Tonin
Attacker82'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Francesco Conti
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Nicholas Pierini → Tjas Begic
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Massimo Coda → Matteo Luigi Brunori
9th Substitution
90+1'
82'
Event
Raphael Odogwu → Salvatore Molina
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Riccardo Tonin → Silvio Merkaj
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Federico Davi → Hamza El Kaouakibi
6th Substitution
Event
Francesco Conti → Liam Henderson
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Dennis Hadzikadunic → Matteo Palma
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Manuel Cicconi → Luigi Cherubini
3rd Substitution
69'
62'
Event
Domen Črnigoj
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Simone Tronchin
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Mike van Dijk → Karim Zedadka
2nd Substitution
Event
Matteo Palma
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Oliver Abildgaard
Header / 1st Goal
31'
30'
Event
Salvatore Molina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Odogwu attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Nicholas Pierini is replaced by Tjas Begic.
90
Update Update
Massimo Coda comes on for Matteo Brunori Sandri.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Pecorino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Massimo Coda takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Simone Davi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Odogwu takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Raphael Odogwu is on, and Salvatore Molina is off.
82
Update Update
Riccardo Tonin comes on for Silvio Merkaj.
77
Update Update
Federico Davi replaces Hamza El Kaouakibi.
74
Update Update
Francesco Conti comes on for Liam Henderson.
72
Attempt Attempt
Tjas Begic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Dennis Hadzikadunic comes on for Matteo Palma.
69
Update Update
Manuel Cicconi is on, and Luigi Cherubini is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Domen Crnigoj takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cherubini's right-footed shot is saved.
61
Update Update
Simone Verdi replaces Karim Zedadka.
61
Update Update
Domen Crnigoj is on, and Simone Tronchin is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Tjas Begic's right-footed shot is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Pietrangeli attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Pietrangeli's header is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Tjas Begic's right-footed shot is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Brunori Sandri takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Hamza El Kaouakibi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Update Update
Goal! Oliver Abildgaard scores to make it 1-0.
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Oliver Abildgaard with a header results in a goal.
10
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Palma takes a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Sampdoria's 1-0 triumph over Südtirol underscored their superiority, with a first-half goal securing the points amid 53% possession control. The halftime lead held firm without red card interruptions, maintaining structural integrity. Moderate 7.7% deviation and market alignment affirm the predictability of the home win, while efficiency stayed on track. Absent xG limits granular insights, yet possession and defensive resilience highlight Sampdoria's tactical edge. Südtirol's 47% share yielded no goals, exposing conversion issues. This result strengthens Sampdoria's position, as they capitalized on early dominance effectively.

Sampdoria vs Südtirol preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.