Sampdoria vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Fri, 17 Apr - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Sampdoria SAM
0 Winner 3
Monza MON
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
|
Goal
Andrea Petagna - 85'
Giuseppe Caso - 13'
Patrick Cutrone - 5'

CONTEXT

Monza delivered a clinical 3-0 victory over Sampdoria on the road, defying the hosts' 62% possession dominance. Sampdoria created pressure but failed to register a single shot on target that troubled the Monza defense, while the visitors struck twice before halftime to establish control and added a third in the second half. No red cards marred the contest, and neither side made notable tactical adjustments post-interval. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Monza's win aligned with their favored status, which carried a 43.7% implied probability compared to Sampdoria's 26.8%. The result marked a significant 56.3% deviation in Monza's favor, with efficiency in line with expectations and full market alignment. Absent xG data limits deeper chance assessment, but Monza's finishing efficiency underscored their superiority.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monza's 3-0 win showed a significant 56.3% structural deviation favoring the away team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true as the pre-match stronger team prevailed.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for both teams.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Manganiello

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Bahri

1st Assistant

A. El Filali

2nd Assistant

S. Striamo

4th Official

Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.15
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: W
Empoli Rank: W
Avellino Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: L
Venezia Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: D
Venezia Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Palermo Rank: W
Spezia Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sampdoria
26.79%
Draw
29.53%
Away Monza
43.68%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sampdoria
+26.47%
Draw
+27.16%
Monza
-53.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.74
32.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sampdoria
Monza
Power Score
24.74
32.45
League Position
12
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Monza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.56
44.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.34
35.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sampdoria -0.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Monza +0.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Monza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sampdoria Monza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sampdoria Monza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Monza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sampdoria
vs
Monza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sampdoria Monza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sampdoria 0.31
Monza 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sampdoria Monza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sampdoria 0.08
Monza 0.00
Sampdoria
Monza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAM had peak pressure around 43'.
  • MON started the game with stronger pressure.
SAM Pressure MON Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAM reached the top pressure at 43' (81.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home
3 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:03:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
A. Di Pardo
Substitution
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
O. Abildgaard
Denmark
28 O. Abildgaard
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
S. Giordano
Substitution
Italy
21 S. Giordano
F. Conti
Italy
33 F. Conti
S. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 S. Esposito
L. Henderson
Substitution
Scotland
16 L. Henderson
T. Begić
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
M. Brunori Sandri
Italy
99 M. Brunori Sandri
N. Pierini
Substitution
Italy
77 N. Pierini
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Lucchesi
Substitution
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
F. Delli Carri
Substitution
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
S. Birindelli
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Substitution
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
A. Bakoune
Italy
24 A. Bakoune
G. Caso
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Caso
A. Colpani
Italy
28 A. Colpani
P. Cutrone
Substitution
Italy
10 P. Cutrone

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity :
33205
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gianluca Manganiello
Khaled Bahri
A. El Filali
Stefano Striamo

Statistics

Possession
SAM
58%
MON
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 5
61 Dangerous attacks 37
62 Possession 38
8 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

104 Ball Safe 82
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
0 Assists 3
27 Throwins 15
9 Goal Kicks 8
10 Dribble Attempts 24
1 Hit Woodwork 2
2 Successful Dribbles 12
5 Substitutions 5
13 Goal Attempts 13

Attacking

115 Attacks 65

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 77
529 Passes 333
459 Successful Passes 257
31 Long Passes 44
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 16
14 Key Passes 9
18 Successful Long Passes 7

Defensive

42 Duels Won 60
8 Interceptions 14
21 Tackles 24
1 Saves 8

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 7
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
6.72
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Defender
6.69
7
Manuel Cicconi
Manuel Cicconi
Midfielder67'
6.97
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Defender
6.94
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Defender
6.97
23
Fabio Depaoli
Fabio Depaoli
Defender77'
6.67
16
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Midfielder
6.82
8
Matteo Ricci
Matteo Ricci
Midfielder67'
6.72
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti Midfielder
6.76
94
Salvatore Esposito
Salvatore Esposito Midfielder
7.44
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini
Attacker46'
6.9
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Attacker
6.86
77
Nicholas Pierini
Nicholas Pierini Attacker
7.2
92
Edoardo Soleri
Edoardo Soleri
Attacker82'
6.62
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Attacker
6.71
Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
6.99
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
6.64
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni
Defender26'
6.94
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
7.07
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
6.82
26
Patrick Ciurria
Patrick Ciurria
Attacker46'
6.69
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
6.96
21
Leonardo Colombo
Leonardo Colombo
Midfielder56'
6.68
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Midfielder
6.96
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune Midfielder
6.61
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
7.12
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
6.79
8
Hernani
Hernani
Midfielder66'
7.13
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Attacker
7.06
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso Attacker
6.75
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna
Attacker56'
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Andrea Petagna
3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Andrea Petagna
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Edoardo Soleri → Nicholas Pierini
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Fabio Depaoli → Alessandro Di Pardo
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Matteo Ricci → Liam Henderson
8th Substitution
67'
Event
Manuel Cicconi → Simone Giordano
7th Substitution
67'
66'
Event
Hernani → Patrick Cutrone
6th Substitution
56'
Event
Leonardo Colombo → Pedro Obiang
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Andrea Petagna → Giuseppe Caso
5th Substitution
Event
Nicholas Pierini
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Luigi Cherubini → Salvatore Esposito
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Patrick Ciurria → Filippo Delli Carri
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Andrea Carboni → Lorenzo Lucchesi
1st Substitution
15'
Event
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
13'
Event
Giuseppe Caso
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
5'
Event
Patrick Cutrone
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Monza's emphatic 3-0 triumph highlighted their superior clinical edge against a possession-heavy Sampdoria side that generated few clear opportunities. Holding 62% of the ball yielded zero goals for the hosts, while Monza's two first-half strikes set the tone for a controlled performance. The result reinforced pre-match assessments naming Monza as the stronger outfit, with market expectations aligning perfectly and a notable deviation underscoring their dominance. Without xG metrics, efficiency judgments rely on observable finishing disparity, but the clean sheet and multi-goal margin affirm Monza's tactical discipline and potency.

Sampdoria vs Monza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie B, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ