Sampdoria vs Empoli Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Mon, 6 Apr - 3:15 PM

Serie B

Sampdoria SAM

Empoli EMP

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:15 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

Nicholas Pierini - 58'

CONTEXT

The match between Sampdoria and Empoli has finished, with Sampdoria claiming a hard-fought 1-0 victory. After a tightly contested first half left the teams even at 0-0, the hosts found the decisive breakthrough in the second period. The match concluded smoothly without any red cards affecting the dynamics on the pitch. Despite the loss, Empoli controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 56% possession compared to Sampdoria's 44%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to properly evaluate offensive chance creation, but the match's overall efficiency shift was completely in line with the progression of the game. The outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match betting market, which narrowly favored the hosts with a 39.2% implied probability of winning, alongside a 30.9% chance of a draw and a 29.9% probability for an Empoli win. Even with the market's backing, Sampdoria produced a significant deviation level of 60.8% above their baseline expectations to secure the full-time result against an Empoli side considered theoretically stronger on paper.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Sampdoria showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

I. Pezzuto

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Monaco

1st Assistant

A. Calzavara

4th Official

M. Pressato

2nd Assistant

Attilio Lombardo

F. Caserta

1.16

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.08

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

11 - 6 - 6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Sampdoria

39.23%

Draw

30.88%

Empoli

29.89%

Team Power Ranking

52.26

52.55

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Sampdoria

Empoli

Power Score

52.26

52.55

League Position

Global Rank

685

610

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score

Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Empoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Empoli

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

34.09

21.61

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

21.61

34.09

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Sampdoria +1.19 Efficiency Index

Empoli -1.19 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Sampdoria

Empoli

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Empoli

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Sampdoria Empoli

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Sampdoria Empoli

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Sampdoria

Empoli

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Sampdoria

Empoli

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Sampdoria Empoli

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Sampdoria Empoli

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Sampdoria

Empoli

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home

23 matches

Empoli EMP Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+13

Goal Difference

-13

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

50 T. Martinelli

29 A. Di Pardo

28 O. Abildgaard

2 M. Viti

21 S. Giordano

33 F. Conti

94 S. Esposito

77 N. Pierini

11 T. Begić

72 Antonín Barák

9 M. Coda

21 A. Fulignati

27 B. Moruzzi

34 G. Guarino

20 M. Lovato

26 A. Candela

14 G. Yepes Laut

18 A. Ghion

70 E. Saporiti

11 S. Shpendi

8 L. Magnino

19 M. Nasti

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 03:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Capacity :

33205

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Ivano Pezzuto

Giacomo Monaco

Andrea Calzavara

Matteo Pressato

Statistics

Possession

SAM

45%

EMP

55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

1 Big Chances Created 0

3 Shots 0

40 Dangerous attacks 42

44 Possession 56

7 Corners 4

21 Free kicks 10

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 5

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

19 Throwins 15

64 Ball Safe 67

7 Goal Kicks 9

11 Goal Attempts 5

5 Dribble Attempts 10

0 Hit Woodwork 1

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

69 Attacks 99

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

14 Successful Long Passes 25

365 Passes 486

84 Successful Passes Percentage 87

42 Long Passes 52

5 Key Passes 8

306 Successful Passes 425

Defensive

16 Tackles 7

7 Interceptions 4

48 Duels Won 37

0 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 6

32 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

10 Fouls 21

3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Manager ▼

Attilio Lombardo Coach

Starting XI ▼

Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper

Mattia Viti Defender

Simone Giordano Defender

Oliver Abildgaard Defender

Alessandro Di Pardo Defender

Matteo Palma

Defender83'

Tjas Begic Midfielder

Manuel Cicconi

Midfielder82'

Francesco Conti Midfielder

Antonín Barák Midfielder

Luigi Cherubini

Attacker66'

Nicholas Pierini Midfielder

Fabio Depaoli

Defender90+3'

Salvatore Esposito Midfielder

Massimo Coda Attacker

Edoardo Soleri

Attacker83'

Substitutes ▼

Luigi Cherubini

Attacker66'

Manuel Cicconi

Midfielder82'

Edoardo Soleri

Attacker83'

Matteo Palma

Defender83'

Fabio Depaoli

Defender90+3'

Bench ▼

Simone Ghidotti Goalkeeper

Gaëtan Coucke Goalkeeper

Alessandro Pio Riccio Defender

Alex Ferrari Defender

Jordan Ferri Midfielder

Matteo Ricci Midfielder

Tommaso Casalino Midfielder

Referee : Ivano Pezzuto