Sampdoria vs Avellino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Sun, 22 Mar - 4:15 PM
Serie B
Sampdoria SAM
2 Winner 1
Avellino AVE
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Matteo Palma - 80'
Matteo Luigi Brunori - 72'
Goal
|
Goal
Tommaso Biasci - 84'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Sampdoria claiming a 2-1 victory over Avellino. Following a closely contested and scoreless first half, the home side found their attacking rhythm in the second period to secure the win. The match flowed naturally at full strength, with no red cards issued to either team to alter the tactical balance. Despite coming out on top, Sampdoria ceded slightly more of the ball to the visitors, finishing with 47% possession compared to Avellino's 53%. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to fully evaluate the underlying chance creation for this fixture, the overall finishing efficiency for both sides remained squarely in line with standard projections. The final result was perfectly aligned with the pre-match market, which correctly favored a home victory at a 41% implied probability over Avellino's 26.7% chance and a 32.3% likelihood of a draw. By securing the outright win, Sampdoria recorded a significant positive deviation from those initial baseline expectations, rewarding the pre-match confidence placed in them as the stronger team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sampdoria showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: 63 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 W
Palermo Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 W
Venezia Rank: 68 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Reggiana Rank: 48 D
Pescara Rank: 48 L
Frosinone Rank: 66 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sampdoria
40.95%
Draw
32.34%
Away Avellino
26.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.89
50.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sampdoria
Avellino
Power Score
51.89
50.17
League Position
15
10
Global Rank
716
718

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.53
10.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.28
25.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sampdoria +1.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Avellino -1.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Avellino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sampdoria Avellino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sampdoria Avellino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Avellino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home
1 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
A. Di Pardo
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
M. Palma
Italy
13 M. Palma
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
S. Giordano
Italy
21 S. Giordano
F. Conti
Substitution
Italy
33 F. Conti
M. Ricci
Italy
8 (C) M. Ricci
T. Begić
Substitution
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
S. Pafundi
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pafundi
N. Pierini
Italy
77 N. Pierini
M. Brunori Sandri
Substitution
Italy
99 M. Brunori Sandri
Pitch
G. Daffara
Italy
30 G. Daffara
M. Sala
Italy
3 M. Sala
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
L. Šimić
Croatia
44 L. Šimić
F. Missori
Italy
2 F. Missori
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
L. Palmiero
Substitution
Italy
6 (C) L. Palmiero
D. Sounas
Greece
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
Substitution
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
R. Russo
Italy
10 R. Russo
L. Pandolfi
Substitution
Italy
8 L. Pandolfi

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 22, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity :
33205
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Chiffi
Marco Scatragli
Dario Garzelli
Jues Roland Mbei

Statistics

Possession
SAM
50%
AVE
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 1
40 Dangerous attacks 49
47 Possession 53
9 Corners 3
26 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

19 Throwins 17
24 Dribble Attempts 11
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
89 Ball Safe 84
9 Goal Attempts 3
4 Goal Kicks 4
15 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 1

Attacking

81 Attacks 85

Possession

72 Successful Passes Percentage 74
23 Successful Long Passes 22
204 Successful Passes 246
50 Long Passes 57
283 Passes 331
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
6 Key Passes 3

Defensive

11 Interceptions 7
17 Tackles 20
1 Saves 3

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

15 Fouls 26
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
6.85
13
Matteo Palma
Matteo Palma Defender
7.65
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Defender
6.58
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Defender
6.59
8
Matteo Ricci
Matteo Ricci (C) Midfielder
6.6
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Midfielder
6.59
72
Antonín Barák
Antonín Barák
Midfielder75'
6.07
20
Simone Pafundi
Simone Pafundi Midfielder
6.79
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini
Attacker46'
6.95
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti Midfielder
6.95
16
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson
Midfielder83'
6.43
77
Nicholas Pierini
Nicholas Pierini Midfielder
8.11
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Attacker
7.25
9
Massimo Coda
Massimo Coda
Attacker74'
6.39
Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

30
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper
6.71
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori Defender
6.31
3
Marco Sala
Marco Sala Defender
6.32
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
6.43
44
Lorenco Simic
Lorenco Simic Defender
6.84
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero (C) Midfielder
6.64
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder78'
6.28
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
6.46
7
Gennaro Tutino
Gennaro Tutino
Attacker78'
6.58
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
6.76
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
6.2
11
Luca D'Andrea
Luca D'Andrea
Attacker77'
6.41
8
Luca Pandolfi
Luca Pandolfi Attacker
6.55
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci
Attacker46'
6.96
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Simone Giordano
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
88'
Event
Raffaele Russo
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Tommaso Biasci
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Liam Henderson → Francesco Conti
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Matteo Palma
Header / 2nd Goal
80'
78'
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Luca Palmiero
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Gennaro Tutino → Martin Palumbo
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Luca D'Andrea → Michele Besaggio
5th Substitution
Event
Antonín Barák → Tjas Begic
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Massimo Coda → Matteo Luigi Brunori
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
72'
64'
Event
Dimitrios Sounas
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Penalty disallowed
53'
Event
Luigi Cherubini → Simone Pafundi
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Tommaso Biasci → Luca Pandolfi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Simone Pafundi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
45'
42'
Event
Luca Palmiero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
26'
Event
Luca Pandolfi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sampdoria exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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