Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Red Bull Arena Sun, 3 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Salzburg RBS
1 – 1
Sturm Graz STU
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:00 PM
Round 8 Championship Round
Yorbe Vertessen - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Axel Kayombo - 90+3'

CONTEXT

Salzburg and Sturm Graz played out a 1-1 draw in their Austrian Bundesliga encounter. The home side Salzburg opened the scoring to lead 1-0 at halftime, showcasing early control despite finishing with 45% possession compared to Sturm Graz's 55%. The visitors responded effectively in the second half, equalizing and securing a share of the points. Identified as the stronger team, Salzburg underperformed relative to pre-match structural expectations, registering a significant 77.4% deviation. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments or knockout implications. With xG data unavailable, assessments of chance quality and efficiency remain limited, but the possession disparity underscores Sturm Graz's territorial dominance. The outcome reflects a balanced contest where Salzburg's halftime advantage evaporated, preventing a win for the favorites. This result maintains competitive parity in the league standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The draw represented a significant 77.4% structural deviation from expectations favoring Salzburg.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 result did not align with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unassessable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No major events significantly impacted the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the game's structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Lechner

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Greinecker

4th Official

M. Kolbitsch

1st Assistant

M. Weiss

2nd Assistant

Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid Rank: 59 L
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
LASK Linz Rank: 65 L
Hartberg Rank: 59 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 63 D
LASK Linz Rank: 66 D
LASK Linz Rank: 65 D
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
SK Rapid Rank: 61 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
44
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
44 - 22 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Salzburg
58.63%
Draw
22.61%
Away Sturm Graz
18.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Salzburg
+53.1%
Draw
-68.62%
Sturm Graz
+15.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.93
68.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Salzburg
Sturm Graz
Power Score
68.93
68.7
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
231
233

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Salzburg Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Salzburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.56
32.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.18
40.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Salzburg +0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Sturm Graz -0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Salzburg
Sturm Graz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Salzburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Salzburg Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Salzburg Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Salzburg
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Salzburg
vs
Sturm Graz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Salzburg Sturm Graz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Salzburg 0.36
Sturm Graz 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Salzburg Sturm Graz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Salzburg 0.02
Sturm Graz 0.02
Salzburg
Sturm Graz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RBS had peak pressure around 24'.
  • RBS started the game with stronger pressure.
RBS Pressure STU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RBS reached the top pressure at 24' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 83 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Salzburg RBS Home
83 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
44
Wins
17
22
Draws
22
17
Losses
44
Goals
150
Goals Scored
91
91
Goals Conceded
150
+59
Goal Difference
-59
Expected Goals
1.27
xG
1.12
1.12
xGA
1.27

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
A. Schlager
Austria
1 A. Schlager
S. Lainer
Austria
22 S. Lainer
J. Schuster
Austria
44 J. Schuster
T. Drexler
Germany
21 T. Drexler
F. Krätzig
Germany
13 F. Krätzig
S. Diabaté
Mali
5 S. Diabaté
M. Kjaergaard
Denmark
14 M. Kjaergaard
Y. Vertessen
Substitution
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
K. Alajbegović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
27 K. Alajbegović
S. Kitano
Substitution
Japan
8 S. Kitano
K. Onisiwo
Substitution
Austria
9 K. Onisiwo
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
E. Karic
Substitution
Austria
17 E. Karic
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Mitchell
Substitution
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
J. Gazibegovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 J. Gazibegovic
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
R. Fosso
Substitution
Switzerland
80 R. Fosso
G. Mamageishvili
Substitution
Georgia
15 G. Mamageishvili
J. Hödl
Austria
43 J. Hödl
M. Malone
Substitution
Germany
77 M. Malone
S. Jatta
Norway
20 S. Jatta

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 8 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Red Bull Arena
Capacity :
30188
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Markus Greinecker
Harald Lechner
Maximilian Kolbitsch
Maximilian Weiss

Statistics

Possession
RBS
47%
STU
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
10 Shots 7
45 Dangerous attacks 54
45 Possession 55
4 Corners 9
8 Free kicks 5
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
14 Goal Kicks 8
28 Throwins 31
5 Successful Dribbles 8
17 Dribble Attempts 16
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
87 Ball Safe 82
13 Goal Attempts 8
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

94 Attacks 95
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

30 Successful Long Passes 27
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
70 Successful Passes Percentage 71
71 Long Passes 68
300 Passes 362
209 Successful Passes 258
14 Key Passes 9

Defensive

11 Interceptions 11
40 Duels Won 56
15 Tackles 18
2 Saves 7

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 20
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

5 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
6.78
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Defender
6.99
21
Tim Drexler
Tim Drexler Defender
6.62
22
Stefan Lainer
Stefan Lainer Defender
6.97
44
Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster Defender
7.05
5
Soumaïla Diabaté
Soumaïla Diabaté Midfielder
6.77
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Midfielder
6.88
20
Edmund Baidoo
Edmund Baidoo
Attacker74'
6.93
14
Maurits Kjærgaard
Maurits Kjærgaard Midfielder
7.14
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic Midfielder
7.37
49
Moussa Yeo
Moussa Yeo
Midfielder80'
6.78
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano Attacker
6.9
3
Aleksa Terzic
Aleksa Terzic
Defender87'
6.79
9
Karim Onisiwo
Karim Onisiwo Attacker
6.67
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté
Attacker80'
6.8
Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
6.88
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.01
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller
Defender59'
6.86
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.14
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Defender
6.94
35
Niklas Geyrhofer
Niklas Geyrhofer
Defender73'
6.38
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Defender
6.89
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder
6.98
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Midfielder
6.84
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili
Midfielder73'
7.34
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.58
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
6.65
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
Midfielder73'
6.92
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.62
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
6.75
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo
Attacker88'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Var
90+8'
90+3'
Event
Axel Kayombo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
Event
Axel Kayombo → Maurice Malone
9th Substitution
Event
Aleksa Terzic → Sota Kitano
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Karim Konaté → Karim Onisiwo
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Moussa Yeo → Kerim Alajbegovic
7th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Fabio Ingolitsch
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Edmund Baidoo → Yorbe Vertessen
5th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili → Gizo Mamageishvili
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Niklas Geyrhofer → Emir Karic
2nd Substitution
73'
Event
Luca Weinhandl → Ryan Fosso
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Paul Koller → Jeyland Mitchell
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Yorbe Vertessen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'
5'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The VAR decision has disallowed the goal due to offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
88
Substitution Substitution
Axel Kayombo is substituted for Maurice Malone.
87
Update Update
Aleksa Terzic comes on for Sota Kitano.
86
Attempt Attempt
Karim Konate takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Karim Konate takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Paul Koller takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Update Update
Moussa Yeo is on, and Kerim Alajbegovic is off.
80
Update Update
Karim Konate comes on for Karim Onisiwo.
74
Update Update
Edmund Baidoo is on, and Yorbe Vertessen is off.
73
Update Update
Niklas Geyrhofer is on, and Emir Karic is off.
73
Update Update
Luca Weinhandl comes on for Ryan Fosso.
73
Update Update
Otar Kiteishvili replaces Gizo Mamageishvili.
70
Attempt Attempt
Emir Karic's left-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano's right-footed shot is saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Frans Kratzig takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
59
Substitution Substitution
Paul Koller is substituted off for Jeyland Mitchell.
58
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Emir Karic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Soumaila Diabate takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano's right-footed shot is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Karim Onisiwo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Maurice Malone takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell takes a header shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci attempted a header but missed the shot.
31
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic's left-footed shot is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Maurice Malone takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Gizo Mamageishvili takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
26
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Fosso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Emir Karic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Update Update
Goal! Yorbe Vertessen scores to make it 1-0.
22
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen takes a right-footed shot and scores.
21
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
18
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Gizo Mamageishvili.
4
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Salzburg and Sturm Graz underscores a resilient performance from the visitors, who overcame a halftime deficit despite lower pre-match expectations. Salzburg, with their stronger designation, controlled the first half but conceded possession and momentum post-interval, leading to the shared points. This significant deviation highlights vulnerabilities in sustaining leads against possession-dominant opponents. Without red cards or disruptive events, the result stems from second-half execution, where Sturm Graz capitalized effectively. Limited data on xG prevents full efficiency evaluation, yet the possession split reveals tactical discipline from the away side. Overall, the match reinforces league competitiveness, with Salzburg dropping points from a favored position and Sturm Graz gaining a valuable away result.

Salzburg vs Sturm Graz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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