Salzburg vs SK Rapid Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria

Red Bull Arena Sun, 15 Mar - 1:30 PM

Admiral Bundesliga

Salzburg RBS

SK Rapid SCR

Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 1:30 PM

Matthias Seidl - 69'

Joane Gadou 67'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with SK Rapid securing a 1-0 away victory against Salzburg after a goalless first half. Salzburg entered the fixture as the clear favorites, boasting a 54.8% pre-match probability of winning, compared to a 24.5% chance of a draw and just 20.7% for the visiting side. Consequently, SK Rapid's triumph represents a significant deviation from market expectations, defying the initial odds in a major upset. Possession was tightly contested throughout the game, with Salzburg holding a narrow edge at 51% compared to SK Rapid's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the outcome aligned with underlying chance creation. However, the dynamics of the match were heavily influenced by a red card issued to Salzburg. This sending-off created a notable red card distortion in the second half, crippling the home team's structural balance. Ultimately, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Yet, despite the surprise result, the post-match efficiency shift remained in line with the actual events on the pitch, as SK Rapid effectively utilized their numerical advantage to break the deadlock and claim the win.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: SK Rapid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Hameter

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Kaplan

1st Assistant

M. El Sadany

2nd Assistant

A. Untergasser

4th Official

D. Beichler

J. Hoff Thorup

1.63

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.06

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

44 - 20 - 16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Salzburg

54.79%

Draw

24.51%

SK Rapid

20.7%

Team Power Ranking

67.71

59.17

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Salzburg

SK Rapid

Power Score

67.71

59.17

League Position

Global Rank

229

485

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score

SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Salzburg SK Rapid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Salzburg ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy SK Rapid

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

43.04

25.20

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

25.20

43.04

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Salzburg +1.46 Efficiency Index

SK Rapid -1.46 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Salzburg

SK Rapid

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Salzburg

SK Rapid

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Salzburg SK Rapid

Set-piece xG Share

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

+0.00 vs +0.00

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Salzburg SK Rapid

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

Salzburg

SK Rapid

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Salzburg RBS Home

22 matches

SK Rapid SCR Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+19

Goal Difference

-19

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T07:36:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 A. Schlager

21 T. Drexler

23 K. Gadou

44 J. Schuster

13 F. Krätzig

18 (C) M. Bidstrup

5 S. Diabaté

24 D. Redzic

27 K. Alajbegović

25 O. Lukic

19 K. Konaté

1 N. Hedl

6 S. Raux Yao

55 N. Cvetković

4 J. Schöller

38 J. Horn

29 A. Romeo

8 L. Grgic

77 B. Bolla

18 (C) M. Seidl

15 N. Wurmbrand

26 A. Weimann

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 15, 2026, 01:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria

Stadium :

Red Bull Arena

Capacity :

47069

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Markus Hameter

Thomas Kaplan

Mohamed El Sadany

Achim Untergasser

Statistics

Possession

RBS

51%

SCR

49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

3 Big Chances Created 3

8 Shots 1

59 Dangerous attacks 27

51 Possession 49

3 Corners 3

12 Free kicks 16

1 Yellow Cards 4

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

24 Dribble Attempts 21

46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

25 Throwins 13

79 Ball Safe 88

11 Successful Dribbles 9

4 Goal Kicks 12

9 Goal Attempts 6

5 Substitutions 5

1 Injuries 1

0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

129 Attacks 73

3 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

83 Successful Passes Percentage 85

449 Passes 441

13 Successful Long Passes 24

11 Key Passes 8

39 Long Passes 45

371 Successful Passes 377

Defensive

13 Interceptions 11

2 Saves 2

19 Tackles 22

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 5

17 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

15 Fouls 12

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Markus Hameter

Manager ▼

D. Beichler Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper

6.51

Frans Krätzig Defender

7.04

Tim Drexler Defender

6.5

Joane Gadou Defender

6.08

Jannik Schuster Defender

6.71

Soumaïla Diabaté Midfielder

6.98

Aleksa Terzic

Defender83'

6.69

Mads Bidstrup (C) Midfielder

7.19

Damir Redzic Midfielder

6.88

Yorbe Vertessen

Attacker63'

6.47

Oliver Lukić Midfielder

6.68

Tim Trummer

Midfielder70'

6.8

Kerim Alajbegovic Midfielder

6.79

Clement Bischoff

Attacker62'

6.35

Karim Konaté Attacker

6.46

Karim Onisiwo

Attacker83'

6.7

Substitutes ▼

Clement Bischoff

Attacker62'

6.35

Yorbe Vertessen

Attacker63'

6.47

Tim Trummer

Midfielder70'

6.8

Aleksa Terzic

Defender83'

6.69

Karim Onisiwo

Attacker83'

6.7

Bench ▼

Salko Hamzic Goalkeeper

Mamady Diambou Midfielder

Moussa Yeo Midfielder

Edmund Baidoo Attacker

Referee : Markus Hameter