Salzburg vs Hartberg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Red Bull Arena Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Salzburg RBS
1 Winner 3
Hartberg HTB
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 10 Championship Round
Kerim Alajbegovic - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
Damjan Kovacevic - 90'
Fabian Wilfinger - 42'
Marco Hoffmann - 22'

CONTEXT

Salzburg hosted Hartberg in a match that ended with a 1-3 final score. Salzburg held 66 percent possession and generated 1.64 expected goals while Hartberg recorded 1.57 expected goals on 34 percent possession. The halftime score was 0-2 after Hartberg scored twice in the opening period. Salzburg responded with one goal after the break but could not close the gap. No red cards were shown to either side. The stronger team on paper failed to secure the result as Hartberg claimed the victory. The xG differential measured just 0.07 yet the actual outcome diverged from those underlying numbers. The deviation from pre-match indicators remained minimal at 2.6 percent and pointed toward Hartberg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hartberg produced a minimal 2.6 percent structural deviation that supported their away victory.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with the underlying performance metrics for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The xG alignment showed near parity with Salzburg at 1.64 and Hartberg at 1.57.
  • Market alignment: The final result remained market aligned despite the stronger team failing to win.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not met as the 1-3 scoreline diverged from the close expected goals.
  • Event impact: The early two-goal halftime lead created the decisive event impact that shaped the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role as both teams finished with zero dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Ebner

Austria 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Höfler

1st Assistant

Austria

G. Orhan

2nd Assistant

Austria

D. Divkovic

4th Official

Austria

League averages

Admiral Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.05
Yellow cards / match 3.67
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.35
Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
VS
Hartberg M. Schmid
M. Schmid
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz Rank: 68 L
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 D
SK Rapid Rank: 59 L
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
LASK Linz Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 L
Austria Wien Rank: 63 L
LASK Linz Rank: 66 L
SK Rapid Rank: 58 W
SK Rapid Rank: 58 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 70 D
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Salzburg
0.24%
Draw
2.38%
Away Hartberg
97.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Salzburg
+0.02%
Draw
+0.46%
Hartberg
-0.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.68
59.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Salzburg
Hartberg
Power Score
66.68
59.88
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
281
484

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Salzburg Hartberg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Salzburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hartberg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.86
28.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.38
38.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Salzburg +0.89 Efficiency Index
vs
Hartberg -0.89 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Salzburg
Hartberg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Salzburg
vs
Hartberg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Salzburg Hartberg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Salzburg Hartberg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Salzburg
Hartberg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Salzburg
vs
Hartberg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Salzburg Hartberg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Salzburg 0.30
Hartberg 0.69
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Salzburg Hartberg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Salzburg 0.23
Hartberg 0.01
Salzburg
Hartberg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RBS had peak pressure around 86'.
  • RBS started the game with stronger pressure.
RBS Pressure HTB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RBS reached the top pressure at 86' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Salzburg RBS Home
21 matches
Hartberg HTB Away
Match Record
18
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
18
Goals
67
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
67
+53
Goal Difference
-53

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:02:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
A. Schlager
Austria
1 (C) A. Schlager
S. Lainer
Austria
22 S. Lainer
A. Chase
Japan
91 A. Chase
T. Drexler
Germany
21 T. Drexler
F. Krätzig
Substitution
Germany
13 F. Krätzig
S. Diabaté
Mali
5 S. Diabaté
Y. Vertessen
Substitution
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
S. Kitano
Japan
8 S. Kitano
K. Alajbegović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
27 K. Alajbegović
D. Redzic
Substitution
Hungary
24 D. Redzic
K. Onisiwo
Substitution
Austria
9 K. Onisiwo
Pitch
T. Hülsmann
Germany
40 T. Hülsmann
L. Pazourek
Substitution
Austria
2 L. Pazourek
H. Coulibaly
Substitution
Spain
6 H. Coulibaly
L. Spendlhofer
Austria
19 L. Spendlhofer
P. Komposch
Substitution
Austria
14 P. Komposch
J. Heil
Austria
28 (C) J. Heil
T. Kainz
Austria
23 T. Kainz
B. Markuš
Slovenia
4 B. Markuš
F. Wilfinger
Austria
18 F. Wilfinger
C. Hoffmann
Substitution
Germany
22 C. Hoffmann
L. Fridrikas
Substitution
Austria
30 L. Fridrikas

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 10 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Red Bull Arena
Capacity :
30188
Attendance :
7653
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stefan Ebner
Martin Höfler
Gökhan Orhan
Davor Divkovic

Statistics

Possession
RBS
62%
HTB
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
12 Shots 2
73 Dangerous attacks 13
66 Possession 34
13 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
43 Ball Safe 77
17 Goal Attempts 6
27 Throwins 12
2 Goal Kicks 17
5 Successful Dribbles 6
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
15 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Assists 2
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

149 Attacks 41
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

76 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
38 Long Passes 54
29 Successful Long Passes 26
89 Successful Passes Percentage 75
501 Passes 279
444 Successful Passes 209
16 Key Passes 5

Defensive

41 Duels Won 40
9 Interceptions 14
16 Tackles 19
3 Saves 6

Build-up

43 Total Crosses 5
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Stefan Ebner

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager (C) Goalkeeper
6.44
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Defender
6.45
3
Aleksa Terzic
Aleksa Terzic
Defender71'
5.67
21
Tim Drexler
Tim Drexler Defender
5.76
22
Stefan Lainer
Stefan Lainer Defender
7.24
91
Anrie Chase
Anrie Chase Defender
6.58
5
Soumaïla Diabaté
Soumaïla Diabaté Midfielder
7.37
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano Midfielder
6.92
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Midfielder
6.58
20
Edmund Baidoo
Edmund Baidoo
Attacker46'
7.49
24
Damir Redzic
Damir Redzic Midfielder
6.09
43
Enrique Aguilar
Enrique Aguilar
Attacker61'
6.29
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic Midfielder
8.2
9
Karim Onisiwo
Karim Onisiwo Attacker
6.69
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté
Attacker46'
6.54
Referee : Stefan Ebner

Starting XI ▼

40
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann Goalkeeper
7.99
2
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek Defender
7.1
95
Damjan Kovacevic
Damjan Kovacevic
Defender73'
7.34
6
Habib Coulibaly
Habib Coulibaly Defender
7.47
16
Julian Gölles
Julian Gölles
Defender76'
6.21
14
Paul Komposch
Paul Komposch Defender
6.86
27
Konstantin Schopp
Konstantin Schopp
Defender73'
6.23
19
Lukas Spendlhofer
Lukas Spendlhofer Defender
6.54
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil (C) Defender
7.09
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Midfielder
6.62
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Midfielder
8.16
23
Tobias Kainz
Tobias Kainz Midfielder
6.73
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann Attacker
7.26
11
Maximilian Fillafer
Maximilian Fillafer
Attacker73'
6.52
30
Lukas Fridrikas
Lukas Fridrikas Attacker
6.32
25
Emmanuel Ojukwu
Emmanuel Ojukwu
Defender87'
7.34

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Damjan Kovacevic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
87'
Event
Emmanuel Ojukwu → Lukas Fridrikas
9th Substitution
Event
Kerim Alajbegovic
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
83'
78'
Event
Lukas Spendlhofer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Julian Gölles → Habib Coulibaly
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Maximilian Fillafer → Marco Hoffmann
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Damjan Kovacevic → Luca Pazourek
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Konstantin Schopp → Paul Komposch
7th Substitution
Event
Aleksa Terzic → Frans Krätzig
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Enrique Aguilar → Damir Redzic
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Edmund Baidoo → Yorbe Vertessen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Karim Konaté → Karim Onisiwo
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Fabian Wilfinger
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Yorbe Vertessen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
22'
Event
Marco Hoffmann
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Damjan Kovacevic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Ojukwu takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
Emmanuel Ojukwu replaces Lukas Fridrikas.
85
Attempt Attempt
Karim Konate attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
82
Attempt Attempt
Karim Konate's header is saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lukas Spendlhofer receives a yellow card.
75
Update Update
Julian Peter Golles is on, and Habib Coulibaly is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Aguilar takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Konstantin Schopp comes on for Paul Komposch.
72
Update Update
Damjan Kovacevic comes on for Luca Pazourek.
72
Update Update
Maximilian Fillafer is on, and Marco Hoffmann is off.
70
Update Update
Aleksa Terzic comes on for Frans Kratzig.
61
Attempt Attempt
Karim Konate attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Update Update
Enrique Aguilar comes on, replacing Damir Redzic.
61
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Lainer's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Edmund Baidoo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Luca Pazourek's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Substitution Substitution
Edmund Baidoo is substituted for Yorbe Vertessen.
46
Substitution Substitution
Edmund Baidoo is substituted for Yorbe Vertessen.
46
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Wilfinger scores with a right-footed shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Kainz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Luca Pazourek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Fridrikas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano's header is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Marco Hoffmann with his left foot results in a goal.
19
Attempt Attempt
Jurgen Heil's left-footed shot is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Lainer has a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Lainer's right-footed shot is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Frans Kratzig takes a left-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Soumaila Diabate takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Salzburg 1-3 Hartberg. Structural assessment: Hartberg exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Salzburg vs Hartberg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.