Rukh Vynnyky vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Mon, 4 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky
1 Winner 2
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
Full Time Mon, 4 May 3:00 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Igor Neves - 21'
Goal
|
Goal
Pylyp Budkivskyi - 85'
Dejan Popara - 60'

CONTEXT

Rukh Vynnyky suffered a 1-2 home defeat to Zorya Luhansk in the Ukrainian Premier League, despite taking a 1-0 lead at halftime. The teams shared possession evenly at 50% each, indicating a balanced contest throughout. Zorya, identified as the stronger team beforehand, mounted a second-half comeback with two goals to overturn the scoreline. This result aligned with pre-match market views, where Zorya held a 51.7% implied probability of victory. A significant 48.3% structural deviation marked the outcome, attributed to Zorya's performance. No red cards were issued, and no major second-half adjustments were noted. The absence of xG data prevents detailed chance quality assessment, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations. Zorya's resilience proved decisive in securing the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 48.3% structural deviation favoring Zorya Luhansk.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No significant events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Kalyonov

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Bakhmetyev

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

O. Tytov

4th Official

Ukraine

S. Dariichuk

1st Assistant

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 17.4
Yellow cards / match 3.01
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.26
Rukh Vynnyky I. Fedyk
I. Fedyk
VS
Zorya Luhansk V. Skripnik
V. Skripnik
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Karpaty Rank: 53 L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 55 L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 55 D
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 75 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 47 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Veres Rank: 49 W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 64 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 55 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rukh Vynnyky
22.96%
Draw
25.39%
Away Zorya Luhansk
51.65%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rukh Vynnyky
+21.54%
Draw
+18.09%
Zorya Luhansk
-39.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
42.84
53.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rukh Vynnyky
Zorya Luhansk
Power Score
42.84
53.51
League Position
14
8
Global Rank
960
686

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rukh Vynnyky — Opponent-weighted form score
Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rukh Vynnyky Zorya Luhansk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rukh Vynnyky

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zorya Luhansk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.70
21.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.80
30.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rukh Vynnyky +0.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Zorya Luhansk -0.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Zorya Luhansk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rukh Vynnyky Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Zorya Luhansk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rukh Vynnyky
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rukh Vynnyky Zorya Luhansk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rukh Vynnyky 0.18
Zorya Luhansk 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Zorya Luhansk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rukh Vynnyky 0.03
Zorya Luhansk 0.01
Rukh Vynnyky
Zorya Luhansk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Zorya Luhansk had peak pressure around 82'.
  • Rukh Vynnyky started the game with stronger pressure.
Rukh Vynnyky Pressure Zorya Luhansk Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Zorya Luhansk reached the top pressure at 82' (59.23).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky Home
10 matches
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
9
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:01:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-2-3
Pitch
Y. Gereta
Ukraine
1 Y. Gereta
V. Roman
Ukraine
93 V. Roman
D. Sliusar
Ukraine
17 D. Sliusar
O. Tovarnytskyi
Ukraine
76 O. Tovarnytskyi
A. Kitela
Ukraine
75 A. Kitela
M. Boyko
Ukraine
56 M. Boyko
B. Almazbekov
Substitution
Kyrgyz Republic
77 B. Almazbekov
O. Prytula
Ukraine
10 O. Prytula
T. Brener de Paula
Brazil
30 T. Brener de Paula
S. Diallo
Substitution
Senegal
14 S. Diallo
I. Neves Alves
Substitution
Brazil
9 I. Neves Alves
Pitch
O. Saputin
Ukraine
1 O. Saputin
L. Reis Rodrigues
Substitution
Brazil
10 L. Reis Rodrigues
G. Eskinja
Austria
4 G. Eskinja
A. da Silva Cordeiro
Brazil
55 A. da Silva Cordeiro
N. Malysh
Substitution
Ukraine
23 N. Malysh
B. Kushnirenko
Substitution
Ukraine
77 B. Kushnirenko
S. Bah
Substitution
Sierra Leone
88 S. Bah
D. Popara
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 D. Popara
R. Vantukh
Ukraine
47 R. Vantukh
P. Budkivskyi
Ukraine
28 P. Budkivskyi
A. Slesar
Ukraine
9 A. Slesar

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena L'viv
Capacity :
34915
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrii Bakhmetyev
Oleksandr Tytov
Serhii Dariichuk
Oleksandr Kalyonov

Statistics

Possession
Rukh Vynnyky
51%
Zorya Luhansk
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
9 Shots 2
67 Dangerous attacks 58
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1

Attacking

93 Attacks 95

Defensive

2 Saves 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
11 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Kalyonov

Starting XI ▼

1
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta Goalkeeper
6.33
75
Andriy Kitela
Andriy Kitela Defender
6.27
76
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi Defender
6.47
93
Vitaliy Roman
Vitaliy Roman Defender
6.43
10
Ostap Prytula
Ostap Prytula Midfielder
6.38
14
Samba Diallo
Samba Diallo Midfielder
6.42
65
Dmytro Sebro
Dmytro Sebro
Attacker83'
6.6
17
Denys Slyusar
Denys Slyusar Midfielder
6.41
30
Talles
Talles Midfielder
6.38
56
Maksym Boyko
Maksym Boyko Midfielder
6.4
77
Beknaz Almazbekov
Beknaz Almazbekov Midfielder
6.25
23
Yurii Kopyna
Yurii Kopyna
Defender78'
6.24
9
Igor Neves
Igor Neves Attacker
6.5
—
Igor Neves
79'
Referee : Oleksandr Kalyonov

Starting XI ▼

1
Oleksandr Saputin
Oleksandr Saputin Goalkeeper
6.19
4
Gabriel Eskinja
Gabriel Eskinja Defender
6.45
10
Juninho
Juninho Defender
6.35
44
Igor Perduta
Igor Perduta
Defender30'
6.33
47
Roman Vantukh
Roman Vantukh Defender
6.52
55
Jordan
Jordan Defender
6.52
6
Dejan Popara
Dejan Popara Midfielder
6.4
8
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Midfielder90'
6.46
9
Artem Slesar
Artem Slesar Midfielder
6.59
23
Navin Malysh
Navin Malysh Midfielder
6.46
17
Igor Gorbach
Igor Gorbach
Midfielder66'
6.58
77
Bogdan Kushnirenko
Bogdan Kushnirenko Midfielder
6.5
21
Jakov Basic
Jakov Basic
Defender90'
6.3
88
S. Bah
S. Bah Midfielder
6.83
22
Petar Micin
Petar Micin
Midfielder46'
6.41
28
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Pylyp Budkivskyi Attacker
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk → Dejan Popara
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Jakov Basic → Bogdan Kushnirenko
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Dmytro Sebro → Samba Diallo 
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima → Igor Neves
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Yurii Kopyna → Beknaz Almazbekov
4th Substitution
78'
68'
Event
Dejan Popara
4th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Igor Gorbach → Navin Malysh
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Dejan Popara
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Petar Micin → S. Bah
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Igor Perduta → Juninho
1st Substitution
28'
Event
Jordan
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vitaliy Roman
2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Igor Neves
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'
16'
Event
Juninho
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Jakov Basic is on, and Bogdan Kushnirenko is off.
90
Update Update
Kyrylo Dryshliuk replaces Dejan Popara.
83
Update Update
Dmytro Sebro is on, and Samba Diallo is off.
78
Update Update
On comes Tutti, off goes Igor Neves Alves.
78
Update Update
Yuri Kopyna comes on for Beknaz Almazbekov.
66
Update Update
Igor Gorbach comes on for Navin Malysh.
60
Update Update
Goal! Dejan Popara scores, making it 1-1.
46
Update Update
Petar Micin replaces Sallieu Bah.

CONCLUSION

Zorya Luhansk's 2-1 victory over Rukh Vynnyky affirmed their status as the stronger team, overcoming a 1-0 halftime deficit through second-half scoring. Equal 50% possession underscored the even nature of play, yet Zorya capitalized effectively. Market alignment held true against pre-match probabilities, with a 48.3% structural deviation reflecting their edge. Efficiency stayed in line, unmarred by red cards or key events. Missing xG data limits shot efficiency insights, but the organic progression rewarded Zorya's persistence. Rukh's lead evaporation highlights defensive frailties, while Zorya's win reinforces their competitive reliability in the league.

Rukh Vynnyky vs Zorya Luhansk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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