Rukh Vynnyky vs Oleksandria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Sun, 17 May - 10:00 AM
Premier League
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky
1 Winner 3
Oleksandria Oleksandria
Full Time Sun, 17 May 10:00 AM
Round 29 Regular Season
Talles - 72' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Bryan Castillo - 46'
Yurii Kopyna - 45+3' (Own Goal)
Tedi Cara - 7'

CONTEXT

In a competitive encounter Rukh Vynnyky hosted Oleksandria and suffered a 1-3 defeat. The halftime score stood at 0-2 giving the visitors a commanding lead early on. Possession was closely contested with Rukh Vynnyky at 51 percent and Oleksandria at 49 percent. Despite this balance Oleksandria demonstrated superior finishing to secure the win. The stronger team prevailed as expected though the margin represented a significant deviation from pre-match projections. No red cards were shown to either side ensuring the game remained eleven versus eleven throughout. Expected goals data was unavailable limiting deeper statistical insights into the performance. The second half saw Rukh Vynnyky pull one goal back but they could not overcome the deficit established before the break.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Oleksandria achieved a significant structural deviation of 70 percent in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data was not provided to evaluate performance expectations.
  • Event impact: The away team's early lead at halftime had a decisive impact on the 1-3 final score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued resulting in no distortion from disciplinary events.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Solovyan

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Telbukh

4th Official

Ukraine

Y. Hashkov

1st Assistant

Ukraine

P. Kotubey

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.84
Yellow cards / match 3.18
Red cards / match 0.15
Penalties / match 0.27
Rukh Vynnyky I. Fedyk
I. Fedyk
VS
Oleksandria V. Sharan
V. Sharan
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.25
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kudrivka Rank: 41 L
Veres Rank: 48 D
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 53 L
Karpaty Rank: 53 L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 54 L
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 63 L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 54 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Veres Rank: 46 L
Karpaty Rank: 55 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 8 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rukh Vynnyky
39.97%
Draw
30.03%
Away Oleksandria
30.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rukh Vynnyky
+39.2%
Draw
+28.12%
Oleksandria
-67.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
41.31
43.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rukh Vynnyky
Oleksandria
Power Score
41.31
43.44
League Position
14
15
Global Rank
982
933

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rukh Vynnyky — Opponent-weighted form score
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rukh Vynnyky Oleksandria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rukh Vynnyky

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.12
13.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.67
14.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rukh Vynnyky +0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Oleksandria -0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Oleksandria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rukh Vynnyky Oleksandria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Oleksandria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Oleksandria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rukh Vynnyky
vs
Oleksandria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rukh Vynnyky Oleksandria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rukh Vynnyky 0.06
Oleksandria 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Oleksandria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rukh Vynnyky 0.09
Oleksandria 0.02
Rukh Vynnyky
Oleksandria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rukh Vynnyky had peak pressure around 69'.
  • Rukh Vynnyky started the game with stronger pressure.
Rukh Vynnyky Pressure Oleksandria Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rukh Vynnyky reached the top pressure at 69' (54.29).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky Home
10 matches
Oleksandria Oleksandria Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
8
Draws
8
0
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
8
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
Y. Klymenko
28 Y. Klymenko
A. Kitela
Ukraine
75 A. Kitela
D. Pidgurskyi
Ukraine
15 (C) D. Pidgurskyi
Y. Kopyna
Ukraine
23 Y. Kopyna
V. Roman
Ukraine
93 V. Roman
O. Prytula
Ukraine
10 O. Prytula
S. Diallo
Substitution
Senegal
14 S. Diallo
35
35
T. Brener de Paula
Brazil
30 T. Brener de Paula
R. Zenoviiovych
Substitution
Ukraine
11 R. Zenoviiovych
51
51
Pitch
N. Makarenko
72 N. Makarenko
D. Vlasiuk
Ukraine
90 D. Vlasiuk
M. Ogarkov
Ukraine
23 M. Ogarkov
J. Behiratche
Ivory Coast
50 J. Behiratche
N. Prokopenko
Substitution
97 N. Prokopenko
D. Vashchenko
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
P. Yade
Senegal
37 P. Yade
S. Buletsa
Substitution
Ukraine
10 S. Buletsa
D. Myshnov
Substitution
Ukraine
9 (C) D. Myshnov
T. Cara
Albania
27 T. Cara
B. Castillo Rosendo
Substitution
Venezuela
99 B. Castillo Rosendo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena L'viv
Capacity :
34915
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lyudmila Telbukh
Yevhen Hashkov
Petro Kotubey
Oleksandr Solovyan

Statistics

Possession
Rukh Vynnyky
55%
Oleksandria
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
4 Shots 5
64 Dangerous attacks 34
51 Possession 49
3 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 4
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

107 Attacks 83

Defensive

2 Saves 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Solovyan

Starting XI ▼

28
Yehor Klymenko
Yehor Klymenko Goalkeeper
5.68
23
Yurii Kopyna
Yurii Kopyna Defender
5.68
75
Andriy Kitela
Andriy Kitela Defender
5.88
93
Vitaliy Roman
Vitaliy Roman Defender
5.88
10
Ostap Prytula
Ostap Prytula Midfielder
6.18
11
Vasyl Runich
Vasyl Runich Midfielder
6.18
77
Beknaz Almazbekov
Beknaz Almazbekov
Midfielder46'
6.5
14
Samba Diallo
Samba Diallo Midfielder
6.13
—
Samba Diallo 
79'
15
Denys Pidgurskyi
Denys Pidgurskyi (C) Midfielder
6.18
30
Talles
Talles Midfielder
6.22
35
Denys Gordyeyev Midfielder
51
Ilya Bodak Attacker
Referee : Oleksandr Solovyan

Starting XI ▼

72
Nazar Makarenko
Nazar Makarenko Goalkeeper
6.12
23
Mykola Ogarkov
Mykola Ogarkov Defender
6.25
50
Jocelin Behiratche
Jocelin Behiratche Defender
6.25
90
Danyil Vlasiuk
Danyil Vlasiuk Defender
6.37
97
Nazar Prokopenko
Nazar Prokopenko Defender
6.5
11
Artem Shulyanskyi
Artem Shulyanskyi
Midfielder18'
6.37
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov (C) Midfielder
6.37
24
Hussayn Touati
Hussayn Touati
Midfielder73'
6.5
10
Sergiy Buletsa
Sergiy Buletsa Midfielder
6.37
86
Anton Bol
Anton Bol
Defender84'
6.5
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
6.37
27
Tedi Cara
Tedi Cara Midfielder
6.94
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade Midfielder
6.37
99
Bryan Castillo
Bryan Castillo Attacker
6.79
—
Bryan Castillo
72'

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Anton Bol → Sergiy Buletsa
7th Substitution
Event
Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Goch → Samba Diallo 
6th Substitution
79'
73'
Event
Hussayn Touati → Dmytro Myshnyov
5th Substitution
Event
Talles
Penalty / 1st Penalty
72'
72'
Event
Denys Khmeliovskyi → Bryan Castillo
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Bryan Castillo
4th Yellowcard
51'
Event
Jocelin Behiratche
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Beknaz Almazbekov → Vasyl Runich
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Bryan Castillo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Yurii Kopyna
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
Event
Samba Diallo 
1st Yellowcard
45+1'
45+1'
Event
Mykola Ogarkov
2nd Yellowcard
18'
Event
Artem Shulyanskyi → Nazar Prokopenko
1st Substitution
7'
Event
Tedi Cara
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

86
Update Update
Kostyantyn Kyslyanka is on, and Maksym Uhrik is off.
84
Substitution Substitution
Anton Bol is substituted on for Serhii Buletsa.
84
Update Update
Anton Bol is on, and Serhii Buletsa is off.
79
Update Update
Oleksandr Goch is on, and Samba Diallo is off.
72
Update Update
Hussayn Touati replaces Dmytro Myshnov.
72
Update Update
Denis Khmelovskyy replaces Bryan Castillo.
46
Update Update
Maksym Uhrik replaces Ilya Bodak.
46
Update Update
Beknaz Almazbekov comes on for Vasyl Runich.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal! Yuri Kopyna scores, making it 0-2.
18
Update Update
Artem Shulyanskyi is on, and Nazar Vitaliiovych Prokopenko is off.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Oleksandr Solovyan.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Rukh Vynnyky 1-3 Oleksandria. Structural assessment: Oleksandria exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Rukh Vynnyky vs Oleksandria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.