Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Ak Bars Arena Sat, 11 Apr - 1:30 PM

Premier League

Rubin Kazan RKA

0 – 0

Orenburg Orenburg

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:30 PM

Round 24 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Rubin Kazan and Orenburg is now finished, ending in a full-time score of 0-0. This draw represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, especially for Rubin Kazan. Despite entering as the stronger team and enjoying territorial control, they failed to convert their advantage into a win, allowing Orenburg to escape with a point. Rubin Kazan held 58 percent possession to Orenburg’s 42 percent but created little danger in front of goal. With no xG data available, the stalemate highlighted a blunt attacking display from both sides. No red cards were shown, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, as neither team produced a decisive moment in open play or from set pieces. The second half brought no adjustments that altered the balance. Ultimately the outcome aligned with the broader pre-match projection of a tight contest, even if Rubin Kazan’s failure to win felt like an underperformance given their superiority. The result leaves both teams reflecting on a goalless afternoon where possession dominance did not yield rewards. (168 words)

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Rubin Kazan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Prokopov

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Bereznov

1st Assistant

A. Bolotenkov

2nd Assistant

I. Tanashev

4th Official

F. Cebrián

I. Akhmetzyanov

1.25

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

4 - 4 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Rubin Kazan

Draw

Orenburg

Team Power Ranking

28.09

19.09

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Rubin Kazan

Orenburg

Power Score

28.09

19.09

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score

Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rubin Kazan Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Orenburg

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

10.86

38.69

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

38.69

10.86

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Rubin Kazan -3.21 Efficiency Index

Orenburg +3.21 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Rubin Kazan

Orenburg

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Orenburg

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Rubin Kazan Orenburg

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Rubin Kazan Orenburg

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Rubin Kazan

Orenburg

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Rubin Kazan

Orenburg

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Rubin Kazan Orenburg

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Rubin Kazan Orenburg

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Rubin Kazan

Orenburg

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Orenburg had peak pressure around 74'.
Orenburg started the game with stronger pressure.

RKA Pressure Orenburg Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Orenburg reached the top pressure at 74' (76.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rubin Kazan RKA Home

11 matches

Orenburg Orenburg Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:05:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

38 E. Staver

3 D. Maldonado Munguía

5 I. Vujačić

2 E. Teslenko

12 A. Arroyo Córdoba

96 N. Vasilyev

7 I. Saavedra Pino

4 K. Nizhegorodov

11 N. Gripshi

10 M. Daku

23 R. Bezrukov

1 B. Ovsyannikov

32 A. Cantero Fernandez

4 D. Khotulev

6 J. Palacios Santos

18 F. Moufi

57 E. Bolotov

5 A. Tataev

27 R. Golybin

37 E. Santos Queiroz

16 J. Thompson

30 G. Guzina

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 01:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Ak Bars Arena

Capacity :

45105

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Andrey Prokopov

Denis Bereznov

Andrey Bolotenkov

Inal Tanashev

Statistics

Possession

RKA

55%

Orenburg

45%

Top Statistics

5 Shots 14

26 Dangerous attacks 45

58 Possession 42

2 Corners 5

19 Free kicks 15

1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

26 Successful Headers 24

21 Throwins 24

14 Goal Kicks 4

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

7 Successful Dribbles 2

21 Dribble Attempts 6

4 Injuries 1

100 Ball Safe 65

5 Substitutions 5

4 Goal Attempts 11

Attacking

85 Attacks 85

Possession

85 Long Passes 71

323 Successful Passes 197

75 Successful Passes Percentage 68

428 Passes 291

51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

43 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

10 Tackles 20

8 Interceptions 15

4 Saves 1

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 20

1 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

12 Fouls 18

3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Manager ▼

F. Cebrián Coach

Starting XI ▼

Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper

Egor Teslenko Defender

Denil Maldonado Defender

Igor Vujacic Defender

Konstantin Nizhegorodov Midfielder

Ilya Rozhkov

Defender72'

Ignacio Saavedra Midfielder

Anderson Arroyo Midfielder

Dmitriy Kabutov

Defender86'

Nikita Vasiljev Midfielder

Daler Kuzyaev

Midfielder55'

Mirlind Daku Attacker

Nazmi Gripshi Attacker

Daniil Motorin

Midfielder86'

Ruslan Bezrukov Attacker

Daniil Kuznetsov

Midfielder71'

Substitutes ▼

Daler Kuzyaev

Midfielder55'

Daniil Kuznetsov

Midfielder71'

Ilya Rozhkov

Defender72'

Dmitriy Kabutov

Defender86'

Daniil Motorin

Midfielder86'

Bench ▼

Alexey Keniaykin Goalkeeper

Artur Nigmatullin Goalkeeper

Aleksey Gritsaenko Defender

Nikita Lobov Defender

Oleg Ivanov Midfielder

Aleksandr Zotov Midfielder

Jacques Siwe Attacker

Referee : Andrey Prokopov