Rubin Kazan vs FK Nizjni Novgorod Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Ak Bars Arena Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Rubin Kazan RKA
2 – 2
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
Full Time Sun, 17 May 3:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Nikita Kakkoev - 47' (Own Goal)
Ruslan Bezrukov - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Vyacheslav Grulev - 65', 61'

CONTEXT

The match between Rubin Kazan and FK Nizjni Novgorod ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw after both teams displayed moments of brilliance and defensive lapses. Rubin Kazan, the stronger side according to pre-match assessments, started brightly and led 1-0 at halftime thanks to an early goal. The visitors from Nizjni Novgorod fought back in the second half, capitalizing on opportunities to level the score and then go ahead. However, the home team showed resilience to equalize once more, ensuring they took a point from the game. Possession stats were closely contested with Rubin Kazan holding 49 percent compared to their opponent's 51 percent. No red cards were issued during the ninety minutes, allowing for a full-strength battle throughout. The significant deviation in performance from Rubin Kazan contributed to the unexpected outcome in this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rubin Kazan showed a significant structural deviation in their performance during the match.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the match proceedings and team outputs.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment data was unavailable for detailed performance evaluation.
  • Market alignment: The final result demonstrated clear market alignment with pre-game views.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without sufficient statistical inputs.
  • Event impact: Major events shaped the 2-2 draw after a 1-0 halftime lead for the home team.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued, there was no red card distortion affecting the game.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Bulanov

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Mosyakin

1st Assistant

Russia

A. Bolotenkov

2nd Assistant

Russia

E. Galimov

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 28.16
Yellow cards / match 4.08
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.65
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
VS
FK Nizjni Novgorod V. Garanin
V. Garanin
1.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 W
Akron Rank: 53 D
Orenburg Rank: 54 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: 69 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Orenburg Rank: 54 L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 63 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rubin Kazan
0%
Draw
0%
Away FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.06
50.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rubin Kazan
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Power Score
63.06
50.7
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
387
768

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rubin Kazan FK Nizjni Novgorod

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.33
53.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
53.73
31.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rubin Kazan -2.47 Efficiency Index
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod +2.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
FK Nizjni Novgorod
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rubin Kazan FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rubin Kazan FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
FK Nizjni Novgorod
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rubin Kazan
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rubin Kazan FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rubin Kazan 0.28
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rubin Kazan FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rubin Kazan 0.04
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.04
Rubin Kazan
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FK Nizjni Novgorod had peak pressure around 80'.
  • RKA started the game with stronger pressure.
RKA Pressure FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FK Nizjni Novgorod reached the top pressure at 80' (99.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rubin Kazan RKA Home
7 matches
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
7
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T01:03:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
E. Staver
Russia
38 E. Staver
N. Lobov
Russia
98 N. Lobov
I. Vujačić
Montenegro
5 I. Vujačić
E. Teslenko
Russia
2 E. Teslenko
D. Kabutov
Substitution
Russia
70 D. Kabutov
I. Saavedra Pino
Substitution
Chile
7 I. Saavedra Pino
V. Hodža
Substitution
Croatia
22 V. Hodža
I. Rozhkov
Russia
51 I. Rozhkov
R. Bezrukov
Substitution
Russia
23 R. Bezrukov
M. Daku
Substitution
Albania
10 M. Daku
J. Siwe
France
43 J. Siwe
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
E. Fariña
Panama
24 E. Fariña
N. Kakkoev
Russia
22 N. Kakkoev
Y. Koledin
Russia
3 Y. Koledin
N. Kalinsky
Russia
78 N. Kalinsky
A. Opoku Sarfo
Ghana
6 A. Opoku Sarfo
L. Vešner Tičić
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
O. Olusegun
Nigeria
40 O. Olusegun
R. Cephas
Substitution
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas
A. Balboa Camacho
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Ak Bars Arena
Capacity :
45105
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Evgeni Bulanov
Dmitri Mosyakin
Andrey Bolotenkov
Evgeni Galimov

Statistics

Possession
RKA
48%
FK Nizjni Novgorod
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
13 Shots 25
47 Dangerous attacks 48
49 Possession 51
6 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
16 Throwins 17
13 Goal Kicks 6
10 Dribble Attempts 27
19 Successful Headers 21
1 Assists 2
6 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 1
58 Ball Safe 66
5 Substitutions 1
6 Goal Attempts 11

Attacking

66 Attacks 71
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

278 Successful Passes 295
357 Passes 374
46 Long Passes 62
17 Successful Long Passes 29
78 Successful Passes Percentage 79
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

59 Duels Won 50
25 Tackles 8
7 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 4

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 25
7 Accurate Crosses 13

Discipline

15 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Evgeni Bulanov

Starting XI ▼

38
Evgeniy Staver
Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper
2
Egor Teslenko
Egor Teslenko Defender
5
Igor Vujacic
Igor Vujacic Defender
98
Nikita Lobov
Nikita Lobov Defender
7
Ignacio Saavedra
Ignacio Saavedra Midfielder
19
Oleg Ivanov
Oleg Ivanov
Midfielder81'
22
Veldin Hodza
Veldin Hodza Midfielder
21
Aleksandr Zotov
Aleksandr Zotov
Midfielder81'
51
Ilya Rozhkov
Ilya Rozhkov Midfielder
70
Dmitriy Kabutov
Dmitriy Kabutov Midfielder
77
Aleksandar Jukic
Aleksandar Jukic
Midfielder68'
10
Mirlind Daku
Mirlind Daku Attacker
99
Dardan Shabanhaxhaj
Dardan Shabanhaxhaj
Attacker81'
23
Ruslan Bezrukov
Ruslan Bezrukov Attacker
44
Daniil Kuznetsov
Daniil Kuznetsov
Midfielder89'
43
Jacques Siwe
Jacques Siwe Attacker
Referee : Evgeni Bulanov

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin Defender
22
Nikita Kakkoev
Nikita Kakkoev Defender
24
Edgardo Fariña
Edgardo Fariña Defender
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Defender
6
Alex Opoku Sarfo
Alex Opoku Sarfo Midfielder
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun Midfielder
78
Nikolay Kalinskiy
Nikolay Kalinskiy Midfielder
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Attacker
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
27
Vyacheslav Grulev
Vyacheslav Grulev
Attacker56'
2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Egor Teslenko
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Jacques Siwe
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov
Goal disallowed
90+3'
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov → Ruslan Bezrukov
6th Substitution
89'
Event
Oleg Ivanov → Ignacio Saavedra
3rd Substitution
81'
Event
Aleksandr Zotov → Veldin Hodza
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Dardan Shabanhaxhaj → Mirlind Daku
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Aleksandar Jukic → Dmitriy Kabutov
2nd Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Vyacheslav Grulev
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
61'
Event
Vyacheslav Grulev
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
56'
Event
Vyacheslav Grulev → R. Cephas
1st Substitution
Event
Nikita Kakkoev
Header / 1st Own Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
R. Cephas
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ruslan Bezrukov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Egor Teslenko receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Aleksandar Jukic with his right foot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Koledin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Kuznetsov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Daniil Kuznetsov.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luka Ticic's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Koledin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Update Update
Daniil Kuznetsov comes on for Ruslan Bezrukov.
85
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa's header is saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Nikita Lobov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa's header is saved.
81
Update Update
Dardan Shabanhaxhaj comes on for Mirlind Daku.
81
Update Update
Ivanov Oleg Alexandrovich comes on for Ignacio Saavedra.
81
Update Update
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Zotov is on, and Veldin Hodza is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Vyacheslav Grulev attempts a header but misses the target.
74
Update Update
Vyacheslav Grulev attempts a header but misses the target.
74
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Aleksandar Jukic with his right foot, but he misses.
68
Update Update
Adrian Balboa takes a header, but it misses the target.
68
Update Update
Aleksandar Jukic comes on for Dmitry Kabutov.
68
Update Update
Adrian Balboa's header goes wide.
67
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa attempts a header but misses the shot.
67
Attempt Attempt
Mirlind Daku takes a shot with his right foot, but it hits the post.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mirlind Daku takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
65
Attempt Attempt
Olakunle Olusegun takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev scores with a left-footed shot.
65
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev scores with a left-footed shot.
61
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev scores with a left-footed shot.
58
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Vyacheslav Grulev takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Jacques Siwe takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Olakunle Olusegun takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Update Update
Vyacheslav Grulev is on, and Renaldo Cephas is off.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Nikita Kakkoev makes it 2-0.
41
Update Update
Adrian Balboa's header attempt misses the target.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ignacio Saavedra takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa takes a header but misses the shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Balboa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Mirlind Daku takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Bezrukov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Bezrukov scores with a right-footed shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Bezrukov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
4
Attempt Attempt
Jacques Siwe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Jacques Siwe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Olakunle Olusegun takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Mirlind Daku takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Rubin Kazan 2-2 FK Nizjni Novgorod. Structural assessment: Rubin Kazan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Rubin Kazan vs FK Nizjni Novgorod preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.